If there is anything to take from the dramatic overthrow of former Speaker Anita Annet Among (AAA), it is that we have entered a transitional phase in our politics.
If 2026-2031 is a transitional window, before the heirs and their minister-workers are appointed, the first signpost had to come with the election of speaker.
Indeed, while AAA and Minister Mao brawled over the speakership, if one turned on a transition-looking glass, it was clear AAA was not returning as speaker. If Museveni felt he would be powering through the next five years, then his most loyal-servant-speaker would return.
But it seems clear that is being set for a new sheriff, and is working with new people. Dear reader, this transitional phase – painfully – has nothing to do with us ordinary folks or folks in the so-called electoral opposition.
This is not to dampen our oppositional spirits, but to be honest about our superpowers. Many electoral opposition folks continue selling pipe dreams, giving false hope and wasting lives and resources in the pretense that competition will end Museveni’s hold on country.
Well, they end up gleefully working under him citing hackneyed constitutional provisions and mandates. In truth though, only our activism is powerful and can bear fruits often when carefully directed and guided, as happened on the discussion on the Sovereignty Bill more recently.
Maybe a conversation for another day – as political parties, too, have to become activism platforms. The point I’m building here is that the transition phase is simply about acknowledging the mortality of bwana Yoweri Museveni.
CABINET AS SIGNPOST
The truth about the human life cycle is that after some time, a once ebullient and very energetic human succumbs to the ruins of time and aging. Naturally, the offsprings begin to manage their estates. Uganda is not Museveni’s estate, but he has run it as one, and sadly, we have been unable to stop him.
If the people who meet Mr. Museveni say he is losing his grip on things (there is no way Andrew Mwenda would claim this without basis), then the heir-apparent has to help his old man.
If Museveni’s son, Gen. Kainerugaba was central in orchestrating the takedown of AAA, and appointment of the man who became the new speaker, Jacob Oboth Oboth, then surely the son must have a say on who becomes Minister in the forthcoming cabinet.
If the downfall of AAA is signpost number one, then the nature of the forthcoming cabinet will be the second signpost on this transitional phase.
While Museveni uses cabinet to gift friends seats at the dining table, this time, he’ll have major considerations to make. There’ll be donations (say to AAA) and old pacts being respected (say with Moses Ali), but there will be key positions carefully secured. Even if this man has no love for country, he has no choice for his children, friends and associates.
Consider, for example, that AAA’s deputy retained in his position is a signpost on the calculations ahead. While Thomas Tayebwa had to fall like her boss, he was rehabilitated quickly because he is considered a needed politician for the future.
Being 46, and more subtle and technical about his parliamentary exploits, in addition to his ethnic texture, the new sheriffs feel they’ll need him. (At just 52, AAA is young, too. But she acted like she had reached the peak of her political career – which attracted a great deal of noise, making it easier to dress her in a goat’s skin for the vultures).
AVOIDING SUDAN, LIBYA, SOMALIA
It is a painful fact that to avoid the ruins in Libya and Sudan, ordinary Ugandans have to plead with Yoweri Museveni, the same man who has led Uganda into this unpredictable political situation.
Museveni is the absolute demonstration of the Luganda adage “omusota guli mu ntamu,” that “the snake is holding inside your only cooking clay pot.”
If you go hard on it, you’ll break the pot and will not eat for the next days, but to leave the snake in the pot, is also not to eat either. This is the state in which Uganda finds itself. Thus, one has to massage the snake, and give it time to leave.
As he prepares to meet his creator – he has told us as much – Museveni has to think about not only his children and friends, but the hundreds if not thousands of visible and invisible, large and small venomous snakes of many forms he has nurtured and empowered over the years, who will go after one another with lethal force. In the process, they’ll plunge Uganda into Sudan or a Libya situation.
Dear reader, we are not exceptional, Sudan or Libya or Somalia are not too far from us: Foreign capital is all around us, and they would stop at nothing in choosing sides and arming opposing factions.
Thus, Museveni has to give his co-conspirators an anchor – a next center of power around which to coalesce all their interests.
If Museveni goes ahead and appoints his son as VP, which is a constitutional president-in-waiting, it would not be benevolence to Uganda, but his judgment of the time, and benevolence to friends.
For peace-loving and opposition forces, Gen. Muhoozi, not only helps the country to avoid a Sudan-Libya situation, but is undoubtedly a weaker opponent than his father. (Let’s explore this next week).
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
Doc, I strongly disagree with that narrative. The idea that we must “massage the snake” to save the pot is exactly why Uganda is ruined beyond recovery. We have surrendered the country to Museveni out of fear that his departure will make things worse. But let’s be honest: what are we protecting? The pot is already empty. For over 40 years, our infrastructure has rotted, our roads are some of the worst on earth, healthcare has collapsed, education is ruined, and mass unemployment is forcing natives to flee.
When leaders like Janet Museveni fall sick, they are flown abroad to functioning hospitals, while regular Ugandans suffer. That is why I consistently challenge Kyagulanyi. He arrived with a powerful slogan—”People Power, Our Power”—but ultimately used it to fuel his own ego. Instead of leading the struggle, he left the country to enjoy safety and wealth abroad, leaving us divided. If we had actually exercised genuine people power, Museveni would be history. This fear of breaking the pot, or accepting his offspring as the next ruler, must stop. I predicted this return to “business as usual,” and sadly, we are left with no hope in sight.
Doc, I must challenge this perspective. The argument for caution—the fear of breaking the pot—is precisely the justification that has kept Uganda trapped in its current predicament. By treating the regime as the permanent owner of the state, citizens have succumbed to a paralysis born of fear.
The argument for stability falls flat when the status quo offers nothing. For four decades, Uganda’s foundational pillars have crumbled: the road network is abysmal, the healthcare system is dysfunctional, and public education has collapsed. While ordinary citizens suffer from unprecedented unemployment, the ruling family accesses premium healthcare abroad. Furthermore, the political opposition has failed to offer a viable alternative. Kyagulanyi’s “People Power” movement captured the public imagination but ultimately served personal ambition. By leaving the country, he fractured the opposition and hollowed out the movement. We must abandon the rhetoric of appeasing the regime out of fear of the aftermath; the current system is already unsustainable.
Mw.Sserunkuma is trying to hard . The other day , he named Andrew Mwenda , Sabiiti and Kasujja as the new breed in a family transition that Sserunkuma and others have been recruited to sell .
Bright as he is , Mw.Sserunkuma was not aware that Mwenda is still Mwendaringly annoying . The man blessed with a rapid mouth directly called MK`s father SENILE !
And now , Doc is here talking about snakes and pots . Doc is saying that Uganda is a pot that is under occupation by two snakes ; one is old and losing its fangs ; the other is 53 going at 13 , and is fully equipped with modern venom . Doctor Yusuf Sserunkuma selling point is that we are better off with a policy : from snake to snake .
But then , other thinkers tell us that every reaction results from an action . In other words , there cannot be a reaction without an action.
Mw-Sserunkuma scares us by naming Libya and Sudan as a reference .He could name Kenya , Senegal , Tanzania , South Africa and other countries that are fairy stable even if they change their leadership from time to time. He is not going to do that because he is here to scare the hell out of some of us. only some of us .
My suggestion to Mukulu Sserunkuma is that before he explores this some more next weekas he has warned , he works backwards and first explore the actions that led to the reaction that resulted in the violent fall of Libya and Sudan .
I suppose and hope that he will discover that before the Libyan and Sudanese pots were smashed to pieces (= a reaction) there was an evil plan (= an action) to create a family / tribal dynasty against the wishes of the majority owners of those countries .
To put it straight , Muamar Gadhafi and Bashir were , over and over again , warned about the consequences of their exaggerated sense of importance and extreme self-entitlement . They shut down and persecuted or brutally silenced the ” unpatriotic ” agents of foreigners ” and the “lazy” . On the other hand , they both preferred basking in the cheer-leading sycophancy by the Sserunkumas of there.
Needless to ask how that worked for Gadhafi and Bashir`s families
My dearest Betty, it is tragic that we choose subjugation just because we fear life after Museveni. The argument that we must accept a succession of tyrants just to avoid chaos means condemning Uganda to permanent captivity. That is pathetic.
We must actively overcome the paralyzing fear this brutal autocracy has instilled in us. Museveni’s regime survives entirely on violence, ruthless nepotism, tribalism, and corruption that stinks to high heaven. If we succumb to fear, change will never come. We cannot let fear dictate our future; we must be the ones to bring the change we deserve.
Betty, it breaks my heart that we are willing to tolerate endless subjugation simply because we fear the aftermath of Museveni’s departure. Trading one snake for another just to maintain a false sense of stability means we are giving up on Uganda forever.
This ruthless autocracy feeds on our fear. It sustains itself through brutal violence, patronage, tribalism, and corruption that stinks to high heaven. But change will never come if we remain paralyzed. We must find the courage to overcome the fear the regime has weaponized against us. True liberation requires us to stand up and create the alternative ourselves.
Dear friend , I really appreciate your reasoning .
Its tragic that people who went to school , got trained to reason and lead the less informed , are the ones who have abandoned their expensively acquired intellect and opted to talk like logic does not matter anymore.
Doctor Sserunkuma quickly steps beyond our open boarders , goes all the way to Sudan and Libya as though we do not have our own sad story right here inside of our books of history .For over a hundred years , sections of Ugandans have had to be ruled against their will ; but many of our ancestors refused to cave in. Why should we ? Our history should teach us that there are more than one way to stand up against bullies. There is no question that Muhoozi is a bully .
History has it that before Libya and Sudan went through y their phases of state collapse , Uganda had seen that over and over again . Some of the contributors of our chaos are the ones telling us snake stories instead of listening to ours .WE, the PEOPLE OF UGANDA have been bitten over and over by one snake to the next .. yet Uganda has not disappeared into Lake Victoria . WE can and shall survive with or without The FAMILY .
I hate to repeat this ; but I must -just for emphasis : Dr. Sserunkuma visited Luzira where one of Uganda`s greatest fighters for rights and freedoms is illegally detained . I am talking about Dr. Kiiza Besigye .
The man that Doctor Sserunkuma thinks he is the one to protect Uganda from violence – Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba . said this : ” Besigye has only two options , to come crowing on his knees and beg for my father`s forgiveness or come out inside of a coffin “None of the two has happened . Not yet.
Hon.Muwanga Kivumbi is also under MK custody . A day after 10 people were murdered inside his house , MK cerebrated : ” we killed 22 ..we are looking for more .. hopefully , Kabobi / a baboon according to MK/ will be number 23.
This is the chap that Sserunkuma says should be” benevolence to Uganda and his friends ” Imagine that !
PS: before I wrote this , someone gave me a piece of information that Yusuf Sserunkuma named Zaake and Stella Nyanzi as his kind of ” fighters” . Ironically , these two are both victims of MK`s brutality .
Betty, I call you my dearest friend because I deeply admire your brilliant points. You initially called out Dr. Sserunkuma for omitting Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa from the list of countries with peaceful transitions of power. Now, you have made another profound point: ‘It’s tragic that people who went to school… have abandoned their expensively acquired intellect and opted to talk like logic does not matter anymore.’ It causes me acute pain to see that our good friend Doc is obsessed with the narrative that Uganda must transition from a deadly father python [M7] to an even more lethal son python [Muhoozi]. We are talking about a person who kidnapped his colleague, Kakwenza, and tortured him almost to death! Gen. Muhoozi even bragged about kidnapping Eddie Mutwe, torturing him, and teaching him Runyankole in his basement. He is an active militant leading a political party [PLU] while fully engaged in partisan politics. He even threatened to invade Kenya for no reason, only for M7 to promote him the next day! Muhoozi’s track record goes on endlessly. How does it make logical sense for Dr. Sserunkuma to believe that trading one lethal python for another is a great idea? You were being polite by calling Muhoozi a bully; to be brutally honest, he is a sleazebag. He already wields wild presidential powers—appointing ministers like Balamu, firing Speaker Among, and installing his own PLU speaker [Okoth] and deputy speaker [Tayebwa]. Dr. Sserunkuma has nurtured this narrative for a long time, and now he is trying to impose it on us. Mbu, we must jump from the frying pan into the fire just to avoid the aftermath of M7’s departure? Kabulangane!!
Betty, your insights are always spot on. You perfectly captured the tragedy of intellectuals abandoning logic. It is truly painful to watch Dr. Sserunkuma push this narrative—as if Uganda’s only choice is to transition from a deadly father python [M7] to an even more vicious son python [Muhoozi].You called him a bully, Betty, but to be honest, he is a total sleazebag. He is already acting like an absolute monarch—unconstitutionally shuffling speakers like Among, Okoth, and Tayebwa, and appointing ministers at whim. Yet, Dr. Sserunkuma expects us to believe that jumping from the frying pan straight into the fire is our only safe option. It completely defies logic.
Webale nnyo Mukwano !
When all doors are closed tight , the least we can do is to talk and express our disenchantment even under lock .
I know that Mw.Sserunkuma has been doing that for a very very long time, until recently.
It would be a great temptation to presume that the Stockholm syndrome has finally got the better of him if we didn`t have a long list of men and women who sold their conscience in exchange for “gains”
Dear friend , its a bad day when one has to judge their brilliance by comparing oneself to the dim witted . Why not compare with the best ?
Doc`s reasoning is that Uganda will become Libya unless we continue with a family rule.
With us on this side,we prefer looking at what Tanzania has achieved long after Julius Nyerere , a staunch Catholic from Musoma , handed over to Hassan Mwinyi , a Muslim from the coast .(even when there were people begging Nyerere to either stay on or give them his relative. Wairioba .Nyerere turned them off and refused )When Mwinyi had done his , he handed over Benjamin Mkapa , a Catholic from the South. Mkapa then handed it over to a Yahaya Kikwete , a Muslim from the West of Tanzania . When his term come to and end , Kikwete handed it over to Pombe Magufuri . a Catholic from Chagga land. We all know that Magufuri did not only make endless statements against corruption , rampant wastage of national resources and primitive extravagancy , he put in place massive infrastructure projects and set the ball rolling , which is happening even after his sudden death. Today , they have Samia Sukuru to stop from behaving like a Supreme Leader .
Last year , we visited Tanzania . My eyes almost popped out my skull when I stepped in the streets in Dar ! What those people have done under 30 years is unbelievable . Travelling on a modern fast train from Dar to Dodoma made us dizzy . Why ? Because we were reminded that the railway that Indians built for us in the 50 is invisible .We have even eaten the metal lines .Horrible leadership has destroyed our pride and the success that Kenyans , Tanzanians ; Rwandese and others used to envy us for
My Dad told me that when the Wakombozi entered Uganda to chase away Idd Amin , they were surprised and exclaimed : ” lah , awa waganda wana cenima nyumbani ” ! ( = wow , these Baganda / Ugandans have cinemas in their houses)!!!
Back then , most of TZ soldiers had never watched a TV in their lives . Tanzania has overtaken us as our cream thinkers are busy blackmailing us with snake threats .
Dr., Dr., the entrenched subversion, indiscipline and lawlessness of transition (succession) from our 86-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa to his son, the PRACTICING PROBLEM OF UGANDA, Gen MK; is but a SIGNPOST to a dead end.
In other words e.g., who in his/her right state of mind would like to work with someone who has been open in as far as the violation thousands of Ugandans Human Rights such as: torturing the Eddy Mutwe of this country in his BLOODSTAINED BLACK, BASEMENT?
Which country WORTH A NAME like Kenya, or the United States of America respectively, would like to relate with the president of a country called Uganda; who to told the whole wide world (www) that he would in three days march the UPDF and overrun Kenya. And on October 4, 2024, jumped over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and told the former American Ambassador, H E William Popp to apologise to his father, the PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa, or else he would get the MARCHING ORDER out of Uganda?
In other words, it is and will be a transition/succession SIGNPOST from BOGUS to BOGUS/EMPTY leadership. Or from a buffoon to another buffoon!
This statement has made my week
“For peace-loving and opposition forces, Gen. Muhoozi, not only helps the country to avoid a Sudan-Libya situation, but is undoubtedly a weaker opponent than his father”
Good analysis comrade Dr. Yusuf Sserunkuuma
Spot on, Timothy! It truly “makes one’s week” to see such twisted logic laid bare. How a “python son” is supposed to save us from a Sudan-Libya crisis—while being a “weaker opponent” than his father—is mind-boggling. The Doctor admits Museveni created this unpredictable mess yet claims we must beg him for safety. It is a classic fear tactic: scare Ugandans with images of Libya and Sudan so they don’t dare oppose the Muhoozi project. The underlying joke in the article is the implication that Uganda is currently in perfect shape, and all we need is a smooth transition from father python to son python.
You captured the absurdity perfectly, Timothy. The article’s logic is hilarious: it uses the threat of “Sudan and Libya” to scare Ugandans into submission, while simultaneously branding Muhoozi as a “weaker” alternative. The author acknowledges Museveni trapped Uganda in this predicament, but argues our only choice is to plead with him for a dynastic succession. It is a transparent attempt to weaponize fear, acting as if the current regime has kept the country stable and a transition to the python son is our only salvation.
To echo Betty’s great point, the Doctor deliberately cherry-picks these nightmare scenarios while completely ignoring successful African examples like Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa. They managed peaceful transitions of power without collapsing into chaos, proving that Uganda does not need a “python son” to maintain stability.
Timothy, it is incredibly disappointing to see Dr. Sserunkuuma carry water for this brutal regime. For 40 years, Museveni has ruled through torture and death, and the “python son” is already carrying on that legacy—bragging about killing citizens and throwing thousands into jail. The horrific attack at Muwanga Kivumbi’s house and his current imprisonment show exactly what this transition looks like. Doc’s logic is twisted: he implies that to avoid becoming Libya or Sudan, Ugandans must quietly accept a more lethal python who will continue to loot the country naked and torture innocents in basements. It is tragic that our beloved Doctor thinks this makes perfect sense!
We should be aware that Sevo is “gambling” with Uganda to his own benefit. He doesn’t care what happens when he’s gone! His approach is to keep us guessing as he buys time. Sevos knows very well that his Son-Muhoozi can’t lead Uganda. Those who are dangerous to his rule including his son, he brings closer, monitors and throw them out where necessary. Deceive, Divide and Destroy is Sevo’s game plan. Each time Sevo stays in power, Uganda is drawing closer and closer to the dark side of history. Once Sevo dies, there will be a divided country; Baganda, Bakiga, Banyakole, Teso, Acholi etc leading to ethnicity fights. Ugandans have to look beyond Sevo and his family, figure out how to avoid what is unfolding. It’s a trap!