Should Besigye die in jail, Museveni risks missing chance to die in office

The challenge the NRM/A government has with their continued persecution of Dr Kizza Besigye is not legal but a political one: to convince Uganda that the man being incarcerated finally, at 68 years of age, when he was not even the main man in the opposition, found love in armed rebellion.

This is a tall order. They have so far done badly and have registered losses already (including their prized military court, and Raila Odinga missing the African Union chairmanship). But they seem obstinate, determined not to stop. As the Baganda have said, “akanaaffa tekawulira ngombe.”

Indeed, this one is likely to bury them because they seem not to hear the alarm bells. Even the autocrat needs public approval. They often need some form of consent, ironically from a public thoroughly emasculated. However, popular public opinion in Kampala is so winged against them.

Because the known facts about Dr Besigye’s life and political journey speak to a different reality.  After their 1986 NRA violent struggle, Dr Besigye must have impacted strongly that he actually lost all interest in violent struggle. In several public utterances, he has called armed rebellion a dangerous cycle which never ends if it becomes the way of politics.

No amount of persuasion or provocation could tempt him back into war. Indeed, turning into a ‘democrat absolutist’ – alongside Gen Mugisha Muntu – even started to look embarrassing on them.

An obsession with civilian opposition against a clear-cut violent military government made these men appear like ‘dummy opposition,’ as ‘masquerades,’ who are actually working to sustain the same thing they appear to be opposing.

This accusation – often spoken in whispers but loud enough for all to hear – must have hurt Kizza Besigye. I, too, became suspicious at some point. Could they be dummies? But even with these speculative accusations; even with a cultist following between 2006-2016; these men would not be provoked into armed struggle.

Indeed, they thus lost space to a young firebrand Bobi Wine, whom they have actually embraced to lead the peaceful forces of change – their misgivings notwithstanding. These are the men that renowned liars in the Museveni machine are up against in the court of public opinion.

Yes, Dr Kizza Besigye might prefer a confrontational posture – which is all legally protected (organising and protesting) – but this man abhors violence. His often-unvoiced criticism against comrades (Gen Mugisha Muntu or Bobi Wine) has never been that they should embrace violence but, rather, be more aggressive, and more combative on the street, which he believes is more effective against the Museveni-types of government.

Where is the un-edited full recording?

So, we now know that Dr Kizza Besigye will not be released. As the unedited, so far non- denied Ivan-Okuda-Lord Mayor recording told us, Museveni and his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba are determined to keep him in jail. That they instructed attorney general Kiryowa Kiwanuka to craft some scrawny legal opinion to keep Dr Besigye in jail. What gambling with our futures!

Indeed, Andrew Mwenda’s Rwakitura kingdom is really enjoying their time. Ironically, the man who derided the creation of the Rwakitura kingdom is the same man who is now rolling in the mud, overworking himself to defend the same farce. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!

Speaking for the ‘kingdom,’ comrade brother Andrew Mwenda has announced to the world that he has audios and videos implicating Kizza Besigye “plotting to murder Yoweri Museveni in cold blood.”

Since they aren’t interested in presenting this evidence in a competent court of law but, rather, the public court, as members of the public, we are asking to see the entirety of the evidence: unedited, unclipped, all of it. It is unbelievable that Dr Besigye upon meeting this ghosty white co-conspirators in Nairobi, they did neither greet nor introduce each other, nor share any banter. But quickly rushed to business.

In just two minutes (are they more, ten?) Besigye had summarised all his criminal plotting. Please show the world all the hours this meeting lasted. Maybe then. Maybe then.

Comfort of death in office

It has become clearer that bwana Yoweri Museveni has settled for a death in office. He cannot imagine himself watching on the sidelines, in absolute powerlessness, as someone else decides his fate. It does not matter whether this is his son or other close kindred.

But also, his young man – his so-called avenger – hasn’t demonstrated the finesse to handle the challenge of presidency. Convinced that the only way he could be removed is through Besigye-type street protests, Museveni and co-political strategists (whoever they are) are endlessly running simulations on how this might unfold and how to be ahead of the game.

So, while they gambled with creating a condition around Dr Besigye (perhaps to dampen Bobi Wine fires ahead of the 2026 elections), MP Muhammad Ssegirinya (a man they kept for long under the court martial) dies.

Quickly, the Supreme court surprised them with newly found courage to close their military courts. Before all these gambles could be settled, a by-election is announced, and they now have to deal with Bobi Wine processions inside Kampala – not Arua! With potential to ignite protests, they have responded with the only way they can: violence.

Unbeknownst to these risk-takers is that all these events are actually connected and speak to each other. The continued incarceration of Kizza Besigye feeds into the fires of the pro-Bobi Wine movement.

And should Dr Besigye die in their hands, the moment will surely be more fluid, more inviting for a revolution. I know, they call this scaremongering, but how I wish they sat back and counted the loses thus far.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.