Had I been in Bobi Wine shoes, I would be in exile too

The strongest criticism Bobi Wine received after the 2026 election was that it was cowardly not to stand ground and wait for his captors.

Right after or in the final phases of the election, Kyagulanyi received intelligence of potential arrest and went on the run. He left his foot-soldiers and admirers confused: “If you had promised to demand the election – okukabanja – why then run and not take a stand?” journalist, and political commenter Baker Batte Lule – who had emerged as the leader of this critical movement – furiously asked on different platforms.

“By hiding from both state and his people, doesn’t he even realize that he could be arrested and kept away and the state will continue claiming they don’t know where he was hiding?” Batte charged on.

While it would have been good – quite revolutionary – for Bobi Wine to take this stand and wait for his captors (Iranian style), it was all human to run. Indeed, across human history, revolutionaries – from Nelson Mandela, Dedani Kimathi, Yoweri Museveni to Dr Kizza Besigye – have run for their lives when they smelled capture.

They all ran and lived to die another day. This is the human reaction – and in (deliberately?) leaking intelligence to Bobi Wine, Gen. Kainerugaba’s men and the entire “Protecting the Gains” inner circle anticipated this reaction.

What Baker Batte didn’t articulate empathetically, was that Bobi Wine – in being all too human – eased pressure on the regime. Because all through the 2026 election, the NRM-system prepared for the aftermath of the election the most.

The next five, ten to 30 days after. The entire plan included making the much-anticipated protests – even when constitutionally protected – impossible to happen. Because only these actually threaten the status quo.

Thus, the foot-soldiers and entire anti-NRM base had to be denied of its key mobiliser, Bobi Wine. But NRM-UPDF-SFC system had a series of dilemmas, too: They did not want to be forced into a position where they have to bring their entire military might onto the streets of Kampala and murder thousands.

Should they arrest him? But this would be terrible optics: How and why would the incumbent arrest the leading opposition candidate right after a “free and fair” election? How will his electorate and the international community react? How about a house arrest like 2021? They had to do something. What would they do?

SYSTEMS TEND TO OVERWHELM THE ACTIVIST

While I believe there are friendly forces inside the belly of the beast – who work on their own and tip opposition forces on insider schemes – my position remains that the intelligence about his capture was deliberately leaked to Bobi Wine.

The idea was that he would escape to exile immediately, thereby easing their dilemma. But if he did not, they would still arrest him, and brave the music of their actions. Depending on the nature of reaction, they would release him after the political embers had died down.

But they anticipated the initial reaction as the most likely one. To be fair, one cannot really blame a civilian for abandoning his otherwise civilian troops. He didn’t really abandon them. He was overwhelmed by the system.

Opposition forces entranced by the promise and greatness of their icon, tend to forget the reach and might of their adversary – often a sitting government or colonial power. Indeed, Bobi Wine found himself overwhelmed; surrounded by a system that has been doing this for the last 40 years.

With Dr Kizza Besigye and Hajji Obed Lutale still rotting in jail, Bobi Wine knew the system would stop at nothing. Two of his regional vice presidents had been already arrested. Some of his closest friends, Eddy Mutwe, and Waiswa Mufumbiro had been arrested, and over 2000 regular supporters had also been picked by the time we cast the ballot.

He had been watching these arrests. Had I been in his shoes, I would escape to exile, too. But certainly not to the United States. And I would be more sophisticated about the pictures I share with the world.

THE PROJECT NEEDED A MAKEOVER AFTER

2021 In all fairness, comrade brother Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu had a special assignment in the buildup to the 2021 election: overwhelm and overthrow Yoweri Museveni.

Indeed, the chance to openly call for protests and demonstrations – as enshrined in the constitution – was in the aftermath of the 2021 election. He missed many revolutionary windows in 2021. There was none in 2026.

After the conclusion of the 2021 project – even if he had won – Bobi Wine had to have a makeover. He had to become something else. He did not have to continue as National Unity Platform. (For example, had he won, he had to resurrect the Movement system!).

Instead, he was forced into mainstream opposition politics – becoming another FDC – where he finds himself entirely overwhelmed and exhausted. He not only has to deal with Museveni’s experienced and corrosive anti-political party machine, but also has to deal with selfish and opportunistic so-called colleagues.

Most of NUP members and loyalists do not believe in the party, but the masanyalaze Kyagulanyi lends them. Look, if those who missed the party ticket went rogue, and ran as independents, how does he get to trust those who received the ticket?

In fact, one of the things Kyagulanyi will have to contend with while in exile is containing the men and women who won elections. The point I’m making is this: Kyagulanyi shined most as an activist, an icon of the struggle.

He is still the icon, but we are witnessing the pitfalls of starting a political party to fight an autocracy. If he returns to Kampala while Museveni is still president, he will have to abandon party politics completely.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.