As Uganda reflects on another hard-fought election cycle, one question continues to animate political debate at home and abroad: how has President Museveni, after nearly four decades in power, continued to win the confidence of a critical mass of Ugandans?
Why, despite generational change, economic pressures and an increasingly noisy opposition, do many citizens still say they “feel safe” under his leadership?
The answer lies not in mystery or magic, but in a combination of history, strategy, statecraft and political discipline, lessons the opposition must soberly confront if it hopes to be competitive by 2031.
THE POLITICS OF SAFETY AND MEMORY
For many Ugandans, especially those over 35 years, politics is not an abstract contest of slogans; it is deeply informed by lived experience. The NRM came to power promising to end cycles of chaos, sectarianism and state collapse.
Over time, it embedded a powerful narrative: that stability is the foundation of all progress. Security, often taken for granted by critics, is the currency with which the Museveni administration has consistently connected to the ordinary Ugandan.
From the defeat of insurgencies to regional peacekeeping and border security, the NRM has projected the image of a government firmly in control of the coercive instruments of the state. In a region where instability is never far away, this matters.
Ugandans may disagree on policy, but many fear disorder more than delayed reform. This psychological contract, security first, everything else debated later, has been the bedrock of Museveni’s electoral resilience.
EXPERIENCE AS POLITICAL CAPITAL
President Museveni’s longevity has paradoxically become one of his strongest assets. In an era of global uncertainty, voters often prefer the “known hand” to the unknown experiment.
Museveni campaigns not merely as a candidate, but as an institution— someone who understands the state, the region and the international system. His messaging has remained remarkably consistent: ideology over populism, gradual reform over reckless disruption, and nationalism over protest politics.
While critics call this stagnation, supporters see it as prudence. The NRM has also mastered the art of structural politics, maintaining party cohesion, leveraging grassroots networks, and aligning state programs with political mobilization.
From parish-level structures to national development programs, the ruling party is visible where opposition politics is often episodic. There is no magical charm, only political discipline.
Museveni listens, adapts and absorbs opponents’ language when necessary. He speaks security to soldiers, enterprise to youth, ideology to cadres, and pragmatism to international partners. He rarely abandons the political centre.
Crucially, he does not outsource politics to rallies alone. Governance itself becomes a campaign: roads, electricity, schools, peacekeeping prestige and regional diplomacy are woven into a narrative of indispensability.
The opposition, by contrast, often campaigns against Museveni rather than for Uganda, a subtle but decisive difference.
LESSONS FROM THIS ELECTION
This election teaches a sobering lesson: power is retained not by noise, but by narrative. Museveni and the NRM continue to tell a story that many Ugandans, rightly or wrongly, find credible: that of a country best served by experienced stewardship in an unpredictable world.
Democracy is strengthened not by denying this reality, but by understanding it. For now, President Yoweri Museveni remains not merely a man in power, but a political idea, one rooted in stability, continuity and state authority.
Until the opposition presents a more compelling national vision, the NRM’s grip on Uganda’s political imagination is likely to endure. Uganda’s future will be decided not by who shouts loudest, but by who convinces the country that tomorrow will be safer than today.
The author is an advocate of the High Court of Uganda.
I nearly thought that lawyers are natural spinners, you have proved me wrong
The whole write-up is so shameful…and …I pity your understanding of issues that really matter…no wonder the high court is of late a theatre of robots!
The lawyer qualifies to be the “Devil’s advocate”.
I don’t know if you are an intellectual , but all I can say is you are intellectually dishonest.
It had to he a person with a name like yours, to make remarks such as you have made. All I can say is that your article is nothing but hopeless and rubbish.
Indeed the majority of Uganda people feel safe under the dictatorship of President Museveni. It is the minority who seem not to be safe indeed! Respecting the minority means guaranteeing that individuals or groups with distinct, non-dominant identities (ethnic, religious, linguistic, or cultural) are protected from discrimination, persecution, and the tyranny of the majority. It ensures their rights to exist, participate in political life, and maintain their culture, fostering a democratic, inclusive, and equitable society. It is not right as a country to hunt down the minority, lock them up and even kill them if they insist that they do not feel safe from M7’s very safe governance. As this article confirms, the majority of M7’s supporters are very active and hard workers in government while the minority only shout and lazy around. One surely believes that all of them continue to pay lots of taxes for NRM developments. Therefore Mr Tonny, as the minority do not feel that their lives are not safe together with their tax payment obligations under this current long serving and corrupt Pan African President, their misery should be taken into account as well because they are full African citizens of this African country of Uganda! The minority have a right to a normal life in this country!!
It is going to be very unfortunate indeed that the judiciary of this long serving government is going to swear in soon the next President as his personal army hunts down left, right and center the political leadership of the minority peoples of this country to arrest them, kill them, or lock them up without proper redress to the Uganda courts of law! It is unfair indeed that at the end of the day, the minority and majority are going to pay taxes this government badly needs to administer this poor country!
It only takes a frightened, obscurantic, obsequious sycophant like Tonny Tumukunde, to pen such an absurdity of self-deception.
Otherwise, after causing so much harm in 45 years, and committed all the forbidden crimes in our Law Books and/or International Law Books; who in his/her right state of mind can feel secure under a very insecure 86-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa and his diabolic son, Gen kainerugaba Muhoozi?
40 years and counting the incremental level of security detail around Mr. M7 and/or his family members, is not a sign of national security, but the terror of personal insecurity itself.
In other words, Mr. M7 (family and cabal) personal insecurity is interpreted/translated into National Security/insecurity concern. Hence, too much security around a person, is a sign and/or the absurdity of heightened fear, and therefore lack of security.
I hope you can reflect on this rubbish and promise yourself not to waste your and the reader’s time again!
Nocturnal,
Zowe,
Enoch,
Willy not Silly,
Nocturnal,
Zowe,
kabayekka,
Lakwena,
Edmond Mwebembezi,
Thanks.
40 years of Rwandese Museveni isn’t a problem, so Bobi Wine & Ugandans are quiet, looking up to him & waiting for next fake presidential election that Rwandese Museveni has already won!
Yet just ONE National/Common Leader calling for an end to the tribalistic system & singing Ugandans to UNITY will stop Uganda being his family business!
Funny, Ugandans are even protecting Rwandese Museveni from his brother
P. Kagame who doesn’t want him to set foot in Rwanda any more!
Look at how Dr Besigye who took care of Rwandese Museveni’s health for years is dying slowly,painfully in detention, but no one is concerned about this!
Powerless tribally divided Ugandans are ensuring the zone fromed by their tribal lands belongs to Rwandese Museveni for good, WHY?
The same author has a post on X talking about the re-emergence of paver-throwing thugs at the Naalya bypass traffic lights. You can’t make this stupidity up!.
Utter and complete garbage. This article just goes to prove that all the titles, qualifications to your name won’t amount to a single thing once you can’t see what those with little to no education can easily see.
All those books you have allegedly read to get to where you are today, was a terrible waste, mister so-called ‘Advocate of the High Court of Uganda’…
In other words Olum, DISHONESTY is the CORRUPTION of the truth and therefore, the 40 years and counting of INJUSTICE Ugandans have been subjected to!
Of course, it’s coming from the mouth a cadre. That means that, without M7 you can’t have a job. What else can we add on since our learned friend cannot think on his own since his mind is captured because of a job.