Can Uganda shake off 2024 ghosts in 2025?

As Uganda steps into 2025, it carries forward the weight of challenges and resilience from a difficult 2024.

With global poverty reduction efforts off track, Sub-Saharan Africa—home to nearly half of the world’s multidimensional poor—remains at the epicenter of this crisis.

Uganda, often viewed as a microcosm of the region, exemplifies both the struggles and opportunities to forge a sustainable path out of poverty.

By examining Uganda’s economic growth, multidimensional poverty, climate resilience, gender equality, debt sustainability, and regional context, we can evaluate whether the country can truly “shake off the ghosts of 2024” and set a transformative path in 2025.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARGINALIZED GROUPS

Uganda’s economy has shown steady growth but faces notable obstacles. While global growth in 2024 hovered at 2.6 per cent and developing economies grew at four per cent, according to the World Bank Group – Uganda’s growth rate fell slightly short of regional leaders like Kenya.

However, it demonstrates a promising commitment to sustainable development, particularly in sectors like agriculture and renewable energy.

Africa’s partnerships with the African Development Bank (AfDB) and World Bank have spurred investments in infrastructure, aiming to deliver electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030. Uganda has embraced this initiative, extending grid coverage in rural areas.

Yet, income inequality remains stark, with millions living on less than US$2.15 a day. The challenge lies in translating macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements for marginalized communities, particularly in job creation and social services.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY: BRIDGING CRITICAL GAPS

Uganda faces persistent multidimensional poverty, where deprivation extends beyond income to education, health, and access to basic services. Many Ugandans lack consistent access to clean water, sanitation and electricity.

In a region where over half the population is multidimensionally poor, Uganda’s poverty rate mirrors this grim reality. Today, according to the World Bank, approximately 700 million people, or 8.5% of the global population, live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day.

Additionally, around 3.5 billion people subsist on less than $6.85 per day, a poverty line more applicable to middle-income countries, which accounts for three- quarters of the world’s population. Without significant and urgent action, it may take decades to eliminate extreme poverty and over a century to address poverty as defined for nearly half of the global population.

The recent replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA), generating $100 billion for low-income countries, offers Uganda a lifeline. With targeted investments in education, healthcare, and electricity access, Uganda can accelerate progress.

Initiatives to expand primary school enrollment and healthcare access have borne fruit, but secondary education completion and maternal health indicators still lag. Scaling social protection programs for 500 million people globally—an IDA goal—could have a transformative impact on Uganda’s poorest populations.

CLIMATE RESILIENCE: NAVIGATING A STORMY FUTURE

Uganda is highly vulnerable to climate-related risks such as droughts and floods. In 2021, according to the World Bank Group, nearly 40 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population was exposed to climate shocks, and Uganda has not been spared.

Erratic rainfall patterns disrupt agricultural productivity, threatening food security in a predominantly agrarian economy. The World Bank’s record $43 billion in climate finance and its focus on resilient, low-carbon development provide Uganda with tools to address these challenges.

The country has adopted early warning systems and climate-smart agriculture to mitigate risks. However, implementing these measures at scale requires sustained investment and capacity building. Uganda’s role in the African Development Bank’s climate initiatives will be critical in preparing communities for future shocks.

GENDER EQUALITY: A WORK IN PROGRESS

Gender equality remains a cornerstone for Uganda’s development. While women constitute a significant portion of the labor force, they are often relegated to low-paying, informal jobs.

Gender disparities in education and access to financial services persist, undermining efforts to unlock women’s economic potential.

The World Bank’s Gender Strategy 2024-2030, which aims to increase women’s access to broadband, banking, and education, aligns with Uganda’s development goals. Programs to boost female participation in STEM fields and entrepreneurship are gaining traction.

However, addressing cultural barriers and ensuring women’s full participation in decision-making will be crucial for sustained progress.

DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AND ACCESS TO CONCESSIONAL FINANCING

Uganda’s public debt, like that of many low-income countries, surged during the Covid-19 pandemic. With global debt levels reaching a record $8.8 trillion by 2023, Uganda faces rising interest payments that divert resources from essential investments in health and education.

The IDA’s concessional financing provides a buffer, allowing Uganda to invest in critical infrastructure while managing its debt burden. Transparent debt management practices and fiscal discipline will be essential to avoid falling into a debt trap that could derail long-term growth.

REGIONAL CONTEXT AND UGANDA’S POSITION

In comparison to other Sub-Saharan African countries, Uganda exhibits both strengths and vulnerabilities. Kenya and Rwanda have made significant strides in business readiness and technology adoption, setting benchmarks for Uganda.

However, Uganda’s commitment to inclusive growth and climate resilience positions it as a potential leader in regional development.

The AfDB’s goal to electrify the continent and the IDA’s replenishment initiatives create a framework for collective progress. Uganda’s ability to capitalize on these opportunities will depend on robust policy implementation and regional cooperation.

LOOKING AHEAD

The World Bank Group emphasizes that while forecasts provide guidance, they do not determine destiny. As Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group, puts it: “Forecasts are not destiny.”

We are not naïve to the challenge and this is the beginning of a long journey. We need urgent, collective action to get back on track and achieve our goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity on a livable planet by 2030.

Countries must promote green, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth to tackle the intertwined global challenges and jumpstart progress. This will mean creating more opportunities for women and youth, boosting climate mitigation and adaptation, and revitalizing international cooperation and financing for development.

He says the World Bank Group stands with countries to support these efforts. This is where our heart lies: helping nations emerge from less fortunate circumstances to enable people to reach their full potential. Our mission demands unwavering endurance—an insatiable will to keep pushing forward through time, setbacks, and challenges.

A PATH TO PROSPERITY

Uganda’s journey into 2025 is marked by cautious optimism. The ghosts of 2024—poverty, inequality, and vulnerability—cannot be banished overnight, but strategic investments and collective action offer a roadmap to progress. To truly shake off these challenges, Uganda must:

Prioritize inclusive growth:

Strengthen job creation and social safety nets to uplift marginalized groups.

Invest in climate resilience: Scale up adaptation measures and leverage international climate finance effectively.

• Accelerate gender equality: Close gender gaps in education, employment, and access to capital.
• Enhance debt transparency: Manage public finances prudently to sustain development momentum.
  
• Uganda’s resilience, coupled with international support and innovative policies, can transform 2025 into a turning point. By embracing green, inclusive and sustainable growth, Uganda may not only shake off the ghosts of 2024 but also emerge as a beacon of hope for Sub-Saharan Africa’s future.