Like many folks on the wider African continent, I still have great admiration for former Libyan president Col. Muammar Gaddafi.
This man stood as the living example of a true autocracy: working for the people and seeking to transform them. Gaddafi’s Libya ranked above South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria on all UN indices of human development, from literacy, public health, to women empowerment.
It ranked number one on the African continent. (What more does a country need?) Incidentally, high on the delusions of freedom of speech, and narcotics of democracy, many Libyans hated him and took to the streets to celebrate his murder even when it happened at the hands of a clearly opportunistic foreign force.
Dangerously sanctioned and maligned by the omnipresent empire-seeking-western media and academia, the stories of Africa’s anti-empire heroes like Uganda’s Idi Amin, or Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and several others remain so terribly censored. I am not saying Museveni is Gaddafi. Neither is he Idi Amin.
These other two men are in a rank of their own. But if there are any lessons we could take from Libya, it is that long-serving presidents drive their countries to that breaking point where, ironically, only them can hold the country together.
That point where their sudden demise is as bad (or actually more dangerous) as their continued hold onto power. I know, it is a difficult position that a single individual invites a great many interests – from his deliberate and selfish long-stay – to coalesce in his personhood that his sudden death portends into violence on the national scene.
It does not mean these men have sufficient control over these competing interests. Oftentimes, it is the competing interests (bankers, gold and diamond miners, corporations in telecom, coffee, arms dealers, mercenaries) who actually dictate things.
But the symbolism of these men, and their public endorsement of things makes them appear to be in control. And for this, the country would live under an aura of safety and stability. However, often, very fragile.
NERVOUS CONDITIONS
For the last 15 years or so, we have slowly but steadily descended into this condition where Museveni’s state has lost control over the tools of violence. Indeed, violence has become the language of not just political, but also social negotiation.
Where people used to turn to witchcraft to settle scores, nowadays, it is either poison or bullets! These are clearly difficult times of nervousness and anxiety on the possibility of large-scale violence.
Among the major points for this “nervous condition” is the possibility of Mr Museveni dying suddenly – God forbid. While I have no sympathies for Mr Museveni, I care for the office he occupies and the symbolism of his being.
There is method to the mess in the country: what appears like a dysfunction in free fall, are interests of powerful persons, cults and cartels meticulously and methodically chopping the country away.
Should Museveni all of a sudden fail to wake up, these vampires (local, but most dangerously, foreign ones) will be thrown into absolute pandemonium, and uncertainty. Running scared for their lives and their ill-gotten wealth, they will definitely go after one another.
And as the saying goes, wherever cartels fight, it is the ordinary folks that die. Knocked back to the stone age, Libya remains a slave market. Sudan is going down the same rabbit hole, unless something magical happens.
EXIT WINDOWS
There are three ways this state of affairs could be rescued. Neither of these three exit windows of mine includes praying for Museveni’s sudden death or murder: Firstly, Mr Museveni, on his own accord, gets concerned about his advanced age and finds it in his heart, the urgency to stand aside and endorse someone substantive to take over – while he still lives.
This is a solemn appeal every Ugandan of good conscience should make to Mr Museveni. It does not matter whom he endorses and hands over to. It could be his son, wife or daughter, that is all alright.
As long as the symbolism remains, that those cartels that have been feasting on or using Uganda don’t feel threatened to throw the country into turmoil. They have exhibited readiness to do so elsewhere.
Second, I have always appealed to his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to pull off this replacement assignment in a more friendly way. This would give him some air of herohood and authority.
He does not have to imprison or execute his dad, but if he ably exerts himself over competing officers, his newly found herohood would lend him public support. The third option – the weakest and most fragile of them all – is sitting back and waiting for Mr. Museveni to pass on naturally, and then pray that the pushing and shoving for power and influence doesn’t become violent.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
Dr Sserunkuma, your logic, brilliant as it may appear on paper, is simply hard to accept. The problem with you is that you are trying very hard to be intellectual. Just try to sell your ideas to the many widows, widowers and orphans and the countless victims of the misrule of this regime, and see whether anyone will buy them. The simple fact is, we can’t wait to see the back of this leadership. Believe me, if the fate that befell all the tyrants in history, was visited on this regime, this country would witness a celebration like no other.
Doc, I sincerely admire your great work on this column. You write compelling and thought-provoking articles day in and day out. While I disagree with you occasionally, I concur with you most of the time.However, I must dissent here. Why defend and pamper Museveni so passionately? Your headline alone speaks volumes: “Why we should not wish Museveni sudden death.” Do you know that this sudden change is exactly what the majority of us wish for, and for very valid reasons?You present Muammar Gaddafi as a benevolent autocrat who achieved great milestones for Libya. Yet, your own analysis highlights the fatal flaw. You note that Libyans, “high on the delusions of freedom,” celebrated his fall. But Libya collapsed precisely because of Gaddafi’s absolute autocracy and family rule. He systematically dismantled state institutions, concentrating all power in himself.The Baganda have a proverb: “Kigasaki okwoza esuuka enjeru enetukula ng’omuzira naye n’oyyanika mu kidiba oba mu ttaka?” (What is the point of washing a white sheet as clean as snow, only to dry it in a muddy puddle?)This is exactly what is happening in Uganda today. By telling us to leave Museveni alone to avoid a Libyan power vacuum, you ignore that his style of governance is creating that exact crisis.I know you hold reservations about the West, but consider the United States. It did not become developed by accident; it was by design through federalism, strong independent institutions, and strict two-term limits. Why not advocate for stable systems like that, rather than using Gaddafi’s autocracy to justify Museveni’s endless rule? I am deeply disappointed that you continue to shove this defeatist narrative down our throats.
But Dr., Dr. Yusuf, it was Gen Tibuhaburwa himself who made the Self-fulfilled Prophecy that: the PROBLEM OF AFRICA, is leaders refusal to leave power, and he has already become one.
That it is now 31 years (after removing the TERM and AGE LIMITS) and counting, of becoming our PROBLEM OF AFRICA, and Ugandans are already fed up, sick a tired of him and in addition; his DEMONIC SON, Gen MK on rampage and has not concealed his terror and murder of innocent Ugandan, what is wrong with wishing both of them sudden death?
In other words, no one should be surprised over the PROBLEM OF AFRICA’S sudden demise. There would be nothing wrong if the country is torn down to Zero ground!
It will be a time to even out as all the criminal/corruption monuments (Mall, Hotels, Apartments, Private schools and Hospitals, etc.) are also torn down, and none of the thieves will complain because, it was not their hard-earned money after all.
So that e.g., former Speaker Among doesn’t have to always leave us in the dust, while cruising in her Rolls-Royce and/or Custom Land/Range Rovers to Bukedea.
There should be nothing wrong for Chris Obore to revert to buying Size Small, for his shirts and pant. And there should be nothing wrong with everybody lining up on the veranda of Mulago and all wives deliver their anaemic babies on the roadside and/or on the cold floor in Health Centres not worth naming!
In other words, we would e.g., not be carrying the burden of having first daughters and/or daughters in laws, being flown to Germany in our Presidential Jet, to deliver the diabolic dictator’s grandchildren; as the German Medics hold their noses and take our sweat and blood hard earned DOLLARS anyway.
And Doc Yusuf, according to Gen Tibuhaburwa, wasn’t the fall of Gaddafi and the debacle of current Libya a self-fulfilled prophecy? Why stop Ugandans or any African from wishing the sudden death of Gen Tibuhaburwa?
It is because, it won’t change a thing. And his diabolic son’s positioning himself to replace the father can only make things worse (prophecy).
Wachireba.
In other words, I am not a Prophet of Doom, but the Prophet of the Past!