Dear reader, on a recent trip to Ghana, you could not believe my shock when we passed a presidential convoy of just three vehicles.
Just three vehicles and about five motorbikes clearing the road. There are no guns on Accra’s streets. None. Not even the president has vehicles mounted with machine guns and other dangerous weapons. None. What is wrong with these Ghanaians?
I learned later that in this country, an election actually means an elections – and that inconveniencing nationals with long convoys could cost one an election. Of course, Ghana is above Uganda in terms of safety and other indices of growth. In several parts of Accra, one does not have to carry their handbags or laptops from the vehicles.
A Ghanaian Uber driver laughed at me one time when he saw me counting money right from an ATM machine. I had to tell him I was East African. You never know, these machines are manned by individuals.
I know one could say these countries have different histories – and I would politely disagree. We are living a neoliberal modernity but with different team managers. I can conclude now that after a particular moment in a country’s history – or a series of moments, often possibly violent ones – elections begin to make sense.
A little sense, maybe. During this time, the actions of a sitting president start to be influenced by his fears of the next electoral cycle. While this is possibly true of countries such as Ghana, it is yet to be true in Uganda. Neither is it yet to be true of Kenya.
And Kenyans, more specifically, have decided to fight for this moment. This is the dream of many Ugandans – and many African countries. What is true about Uganda presently is that elections are ceremonial.
In fact, we are still in that moment where these elections are actually an imposition from the Western world – and Museveni goes through them simply for the sake of legitimacy from the international community. It is the fear to be branded an autocrat.
The compounded danger is that even the Western world actually endorses this sort of meaningless electioneering. However, it ought to be understood that the person most fearful of this imposed elections is Yoweri Museveni himself.
It is a fascinating paradox that a man who is guaranteed to win an election before it actually happens fears it the most. Because unlike any other person participating in this election, Yoweri Museveni has the whole world to lose if the opposition actually understood his fears.
NOT VICTORY, BUT LEGITIMACY
Look, Museveni goes into elections not seeking electoral victory but, rather, legitimacy: that he has the mandate of the people.
To this end, Museveni uses the election for something else – a secondary objective – not the original claimed objective of any electoral process, which is giving victory. Notice, however, that to achieve this end, Museveni is enabled by an opposition which goes to the election seeking electoral victory.
Thus, when they win parliamentary and local council seats (in their abysmal smallness and uselessness), they tend to celebrate like they won the entire world.
With the election cycle being the only time opposition individuals and groups are free to go around the country and mobilise (because we live under an autocracy), this is the only time Museveni lives in absolute fear.
To his credit, he has done enough to emasculate opposition folks: jailed, tortured, killed, bankrupted, bribed, threatened, and much more. But still, he fears this moment. He fears the day when groups and individuals in the opposition will seek to work and use the election for much more than seeking victory.
But working towards an overhaul of the entire system. This explains why subsequent elections have tended to outdo each other in terms of violence. The previous elections have tended to look like child play in light of new episodes of violence.
Dear reader, I’m not saying anything novel here, except that we ought to be more prepared for an escalation. As the Baganda have noted, Ekijja omanyi, kinyaga bitono; ekiddukano tekimala byenda.
This can be translated as, “What befalls you when you expect it, robs you of little; a running stomach does not run off with the bowels.”
Every passing year, with our incumbent becoming more unpopular – he has been for a long time – violence becomes even more inevitable. Outstandingly selfishly, Gen Yoweri Museveni and team fully understand these dynamics are planning for another episode.
Presently, as we reported in The Observer two weeks ago, and Daily Monitor on Monday confirmed, the military runs every aspect of our lives. Because it is the only institution that can guarantee “victory” to the incumbent.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
Thanks Dr., Dr. Yusuf.
That the Ghanaian presidential Motorcade comprises only of a 3-motor vehicle and a 5-motor cycle side riders, no mounted machineguns and/or Anti Aircraft Artillery, makes one green with envy.
In other words, 39 years ago, our current 84-year-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa criticized and demonized Obote (RIP) for having a 5-motor vehicle, which included a mounted Bazooka presidential motorcade.
But now look! at what Mr. M7 has: in addition closing the road and disrupting business for hours; the guy has a 40-vehicle motorcade add a mobile toilet and kitchen. Not forgetting a Bullion Van.
Wow unto Ugandans. On 26th Jan 1986, you cheered and celebrated the advent of a military and Life president Dictator.
Obote categorically told you that Mr. M7 is a KILLER, but you did not heed to his warning. SUFFER!
Doc, “Notice, however, that to achieve this end, Museveni is enabled by an opposition which goes to the election seeking electoral victory.” In respect to the presidency, the opposition goes to the election seeking a guaranteed loss. Do you mean that Kyagulanyi goes to the election seeking electoral victory? No way Jose (hosay).
However, you ineluctably nailed it on the head thereafter, “Thus, when they win parliamentary and local council seats (in their abysmal smallness and uselessness), they tend to celebrate like they won the entire world.” That’s exactly what Kyagulanyi and the opposition are after because, it comes with big backs. M7 gives them lots of money in parliament. Look at what Mpuuga made while he was the leader of opposition in parliament! MPs make way to much money, especially those on committees! The other day, Ssegona was robbed hundreds of millions, which he left in his car when he took it for a car wash. That was shot-change to him and he cared less to leave it in the car!
“Obote categorically told you that Mr. M7 is a KILLER, but you did not heed to his warning. SUFFER!” One wonders why most politicians blame the electorate of Uganda after inciting them to attend to national elections as their right to vote! If Dr Obote told the Ganda tribes people that President Yoweri Museveni is a killer what of Obote himself who slaughtered the Ganda and their King left right and centre twice during his rule! Unfortunately as African leaders all over the African continent continue unabated to abuse inalienable human rights of their fellow Africans, many of these innocent victims cry out for the return of colonialism. The constantly persecuted Uganda Muslims even wish for the return of an islamic dictatorship the likes of that of President Idi Amin, in the history of this country. It is therefore a clear warning to the Ganda fraternity not to attend to these violent and highly Gerrymandering national elections that are not free and fair. Most of the politicians are corrupt and they are paid lots of money to persuade the citizens of this country to go and vote. Afterwards, when their well placed votes have been done with and stolen during daylight robbery, the poor African electorate will be blamed severely. Afterwards the incumbent President Museveni and his brutal army and police will come out with the full force of the law to threaten and even kill the electrol protesters in the name of democratic and peaciful electoral victory!
I need to reach out to publish my paining issue