Last week, Uganda presented Türkiye with several very different faces. On September 16 and 17, First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga was in Istanbul participating in the AFEX 2026 Business Forum and Expo, promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation between Türkiye and Africa.
On September 18, supporters of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) marched on the Turkiye Embassy in Kampala demanding the return of Ugandan blogger Fred Kajjubi Lumbuye.
The same day, President Yoweri Museveni met Türkiye’s ambassador in Uganda. The following day, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) announced the immediate suspension of all defence and military cooperation with Türkiye.
There is nothing inherently contradictory about a state pursuing commercial relations while managing a dispute in another sphere. States routinely compartmentalise their relationships. But when economic engagement, presidential diplomacy, political mobilisation and military policy send conflicting signals to the same foreign government, a fundamental question arises:
Who speaks for Uganda?
The immediate dispute concerns Lumbuye, an online commentator based in Türkiye whose broadcasts have fiercely criticised President Museveni’s administration and his son, Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
Ugandan authorities want him returned to face criminal charges, while his asylum and immigration status in Türkiye has been central to the dispute since his detention there in 2021.
Following the September 18 PLU demonstration, for which the embassy had announced a temporary closure, the UPDF suspended all defence cooperation until outstanding issues were resolved. That is where a bilateral disagreement becomes a critical question of governance and statecraft.
The Dispute Did Not Begin with Lumbuye
It would be an error to treat Lumbuye as the root of the Uganda-Türkiye dispute.
In April, Muhoozi publicly demanded that Türkiye pay Uganda a $1 billion “security dividend,” arguing that Uganda had borne a heavy military burden in Somalia while Turkish commercial interests benefited from the resulting stability. He threatened diplomatic consequences before the posts were deleted.
Uganda has been a major military contributor to African Union missions in Somalia since 2007 and is entitled to ask how its sacrifices translate into strategic benefits.
However, Uganda deployed not as a unilateral actor, but as part of a multinational African Union peace-support operation, alongside countries including Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sierra Leone, with a United Nations mandate and international support.
If Türkiye benefits from Somalia’s relative stability, is it uniquely indebted to Uganda? Would the same logic entitle all other troop-contributing countries to compensation?
A collective, internationally supported peace mission does not automatically create a bilateral financial debt owed by Türkiye to Uganda. Public ultimatums narrow the room for negotiation; diplomacy requires converting strategic assets into negotiated advantages through formal institutional channels.
The Kadaga Paradox
While PLU was preparing to demonstrate in Kampala, Kadaga was in Istanbul urging partnerships to advance investment and production.
Pursuing trade while reviewing defence ties is not inherently contradictory, but the conflicting signals create severe institutional ambiguity:
- The First Deputy Prime Minister was in Istanbul seeking deeper commercial ties.
- The President was conducting executive diplomacy with the Turkish ambassador.
- A political organisation chaired by the CDF was mobilising street protests against the embassy.
- The military, led by the same CDF, formally suspended defence cooperation.
For Ankara, the practical question is obvious: which signal represents the official policy of the Republic of Uganda?
This ambiguity is particularly dangerous in a volatile Horn of Africa. Türkiye maintains a substantial presence in Somalia spanning diplomacy, infrastructure and military training. Furthermore, following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025, regional dynamics have become increasingly complex. Türkiye strongly rejected the recognition and reaffirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Navigating an arena where Turkish, Arab, African and Western interests intersect requires disciplined statecraft, not personalised declarations.
Extradition and Civilian Justice
Uganda is entitled to seek the return of citizens accused of criminal offences, but extradition is a legal process, not a test of military strength or political pressure.
Foreign jurisdictions must evaluate the credibility and due process of the requesting nation’s legal system. Uganda’s post-election environment—including high-profile legal actions involving political figures such as Dr Kizza Besigye and Erias Lukwago, and Robert Kyagulanyi’s continued absence from Uganda—forms part of the wider context in which foreign authorities assess requests involving political critics.
The most effective way to strengthen extradition requests is not to demonstrate outside embassies, but to reinforce international trust in Uganda’s civilian justice system.
The Problem of “Three Hats”
The institutional difficulty becomes sharper when considering Muhoozi’s leadership of the demonstration. As both PLU Chairman and Chief of Defence Forces, he directed the protest, congratulated the demonstrators, and warned Türkiye via X:
“I thank the great patriotic masses of PLU for their demonstration at the Turkish Embassy yesterday. They proved that they have the spirit of lions. The Turks will comply with all our demands. If they don’t life will become untenable for them in Uganda.”
This overlap obscures key constitutional boundaries:
- The CDF directs a political organisation to confront a foreign embassy.
- The organisation conducts the demonstration.
- The CDF publicly warns the foreign state of consequences.
- The armed forces announce the suspension of military cooperation.
To any foreign government, distinguishing between the political organisation, its chairman and the commander of Uganda’s armed forces becomes nearly impossible.
When Personalities Substitute for Institutions
Former state minister Dr Pereza Ahabwe recently captured this growing concern, pointing to Local Government minister Balaam Barugahara and drawing a broader comparison with Muhoozi to argue that officials are increasingly exercising powers outside their defined mandates.
Ahabwe’s concern underscores a vital constitutional principle: authority is not merely the power to enforce an outcome, but the lawful exercise of power within a defined mandate subject to oversight.
The reputational cost of stepping outside these boundaries is already visible abroad. When senior military figures conduct diplomacy through social media and political rallies, it invites public derision and undermines state prestige.
Restoring Coherence to Statecraft
A sovereign state normally speaks through established channels: the Presidency provides executive direction, Foreign Affairs conducts diplomacy, the military manages defence, and Parliament provides oversight. External communications must converge around a clear national position.
Uganda and Türkiye share decades of cooperation across trade, aviation, investment and defence. Foreign policy cannot sustainably be conducted through social media declarations, street demonstrations and reactive military decisions.
Uganda possesses substantial strategic assets, but military weight does not automatically translate into negotiating weight. Foreign governments must be able to distinguish, without ambiguity, between official state policy, military actions, political movements and personal commentary.
If that distinction remains obscure, the consequences will ultimately be borne not by the individuals conducting the quarrel, but by the Ugandan state and its citizens.
The writer is an advocate, former member of parliament, and former minister of state for Foreign Affairs.
In other words, who in his/her right state of mind can still deny that Uganda is a failed state, overran by a psycho, Gangster son of our 86-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa?
Otherwise, where are the newly appointed seasoned Foreign Affairs Diplomats, the Desire Ayebale of this or those countries?
What is saddening is that many seemingly intelligent Ugandans continue to praise him.
My namesake (Joe), what can the seemingly intelligent Ugandan do? I guess you’re in that number too. He’s obviously exercising powers of the executive branch. When there are no guard rails, society suffers. No one is superman/super human being. We’re all capable of making mistakes. When arrogance replaces humility, things get much worse. We’re having a similar problem in the U.S. Mr. T is doing the unthinkable, including recently banning critical press from covering WH. Americans can only lament and pray that he doesn’t use power of the executive to cause his party to retain control of both chambers of Congress. For now, no institution is able to check him. Courts are trying though. What many folks don’t know is that the executive has a lot of power. That power can either be abused or used for the common good.
I am Joe, the Ugandan American. I know someone might kill me because of this comment. Let me comment anyway.
Does Israel-Turkey tensions have anything to do with this? Who promises Uganda more superior weapons/technology, Turkey or Israel?
Honestly speaking, I don’t blame Muhoozi. He also got caught up by Ugandan history of hate and division along tribal/ethnic lines. Some are waiting for payback time/retribution and making existential threats to Muhoozi and his kin. God doesn’t grant evil wishes. Honestly, what is M7, Muhoozi, etc expected to do when they control power? They have to maintain power at all cost for their existence. I believe everyday M7, Muhoozi etc are on offense and defense to mitigate threats.
The solution in my opinion is genuine forgiveness and love. Love should trump hate. Please stop threatening people in power. Can someone assure M7, Muhoozi etc that no one will go after them should they handover power peacefully.
But Joe, “the measure you give is the measure you get!” Why do they go after others if they are aware that: the people they went/going after will also come after them?
And Joe, in 1987 at the OAU/AU Summit in Addis; wasn’t it the same Tibuhaburwa who told the whole wide world (www) thar: the “problem o Africa is leaders refusing to leave power”?
But for 40 years and counting he has become a big fat one!
In other words, who bewitched him and/or son for becoming PROBLEM OF AFRICA for the last 25 years since 2006, which should have been his last term of office (after 2 terms)?