There is that picture at Kololo Airstrip where a clearly forlorn [former] Speaker of Parliament, Hon. Anita Among is captured ingratiating herself to a clearly disinterested soldier, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
It had to go viral. In that moment, Anita Among, eager to retain her position as speaker, was pleading not just with the CDF or privileged son of the president, but was infront of the new oracle in town.
Museveni’s son had not only stolen the show with his choice of uniform – he looked quite sharp and kempt – but also seemed like Museveni had sworn in on behalf of his son. Yes, AAA would have ignored this son’s vitriolic tweets about her new automobile, but not this time.
With her husband equally forlorn and cowed just behind her, an online commentator wondered why they were still on their feet, and not their knees. If there is anything to take from that moment – among many others since May 12 – it is that the Rwakitura Kingdom that journalist Andrew Mwenda predicted more than 15 years ago is here with us.
It is not just a possibility, but a reality unfolding before our eyes. What is undeniable is that (a) opposition forces cannot stop this kingdom from taking shape: The reigning king, His Royal Highness Yoweri Museveni organises and wins his elections.
Museveni appoints his judiciary. There will be no public protests. Museveni has more money and has mastered strangling opposition units of any revenue. He can be more violent when he chooses to and there aren’t any repercussions because he is bosom friends with foreign power and foreign capital (who might proffer sanctions in the event of abuse).
What is also undeniable is that (b) the prince and heir-apparent is already calling the shots. Considering that opposition forces have been thoroughly emasculated, this is clearly his time as his father slowly but steadily bows to the ruins of time.
Thus, for me, I think as country, it is about time we opened the discussion on Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba – not just the possibility of becoming president, but one who has already assumed co-presidency.
I will say one more time, unless something magical happens – like a revolution from nowhere – no one is prepared enough to stop his accession (except of course, his father, who, despite subjecting him to a grueling long wait, has no choice but to succumb to the vicissitudes of time).
MUHOOZI’S MOMENT
Let me begin this way: If we are looking at a peaceful transition – not a violent one – it will not be electoral, but hereditary.
Not even internal to NRM, but Museveni’s family – and Museveni is lucky to have a candidate: Gen. Kainerugaba. Time and circumstance have pushed us in this position and we reached a point of no return.
Under the auspices of his father, MK has accumulated an immense amount of power both as soldier, CDF and power broker. This is a dream place to be. Relatedly, his father, over the forty-year period has entered many commitments with super powerful individuals, institutions, and multinationals extracting Ugandan resources on the cheap.
These are both financially, and militarily powerful. They will stop at nothing to ensure that the new president has to be a familiar face. This person has to be capable of enabling them continuity or in the worst-case, allow them time to move their wealth elsewhere.
They cannot accept someone whose politics is diametrically opposed to Museveni, who might decide to jail them or put an immediate stop to their looting or even freeze their wealth.
They’ll fight blood and tears to make sure this never happens. Because they can. There are plenty of examples: In Egypt after the Arab spring, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammad Morsi, whose party and politics was the diametric opposite of Hosni Mubarak won a democratic election.
This threw former Mubarak associates – especially in the western world – in absolute disarray. They let him rule for just one year before overthrowing him in a coup. They ensured a man who had been aligned with Mubarak took the presidency.
That man is still president. Meanwhile, Mohamad Morsi would be jailed and later killed. Sudan is undergoing genocide because western corporations/powers feared a repeat of Egypt with a nationalist or Muslim Brotherhood candidate winning an election if organised just after a two-year transition.
The point I am making is that this is Muhoozi’s moment. He is not the only powerful person presently, but also has been doing things with his father, which makes him likeable by local and international associates.
Notice, therefore, that while he is not a preferred candidate, but by being the symbol of continuity of his father’s reign/crimes – despite major differences as I will show below – he is good for Uganda’s stability.
You don’t get to go the direction of Egypt or Sudan. Again, this is not because of what he would personally do, but because many self-interested groups would not like sudden disruption of their interests.
MORE BRUTAL THAN FATHER?
Dear reader, I don’t like this state of events either, but I am simply cognizant of the stakes. But we can chasten ourselves with the thought that President Kainerugaba is the transitional guy.
No, there will be no more 40 years. Not only is he starting late (maybe 53 – ten years late), but the ground has diametrically shifted. But at the risk of sounding like his supporter, a part of me believes the son will govern better than the old man.
This is not because of some special genius, but because of (a) his age, which imposes upon him an understanding of the modern world of Wi-Fi, apps, cryptocurrency, and a leaner government.
Isn’t his social media footprint telling enough? Secondly, like his father, Muhoozi will have to govern with his contemporaries, who again, because of their ages, are more progressive. Consider, Andrew Mwenda as Prime Minister, Allan Kasuja as Minister for ICT.
I see NBS’ Kin Karisa coming in as Minister of Information. There are things these middle-aged Ugandans would love to see in their country given the chance at decision-making.
Look, I don’t know all of Kainerugaba’s friends, but I am confident Nabbanja, Kasaija, Kadaga, Nankabirwa, J. Odongo, K. Otafiire, Moses Ali, among others, will not be part of his cabinet.
There is no doubt that a core component of our problems is the disconnect old hands with power have with the new world. It has been said that the son might be more brutal than his father.
Again, for reasons beyond Muhoozi Kainerugaba, even if he so wanted, he has very little room for autocracy. These are different times. These are times of Wi-Fi and cheap Chinese smartphones, perhaps the most consequential invention of the 21st century.
A combination of Internet and Smartphones has led to the downfall of Israel’s grand narrative in the Middle East. The times when autocrats committed crimes in absolute darkness is behind us.
The times when autocrats did their thing without their subjects talking back is gone. This time, even when an autocrat chooses not to listen, the noise is simply unstoppable.
The point I am making is this: There is a transition quietly creeping in on us, and perhaps it is about time we faced it early enough. While we might concede to their ascension, we are closely watching.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.