Gen. Muhoozi’s place in the ongoing transition

I have argued before that moving forward, Uganda will need Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

Or a person like Gen. Kainerugaba. This is not necessarily about the man, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, but that the trajectory of Museveni’s politics needs a man of this texture than the man actually needs the country.

My intention here is neither to support nor endorse. But acknowledging Muhoozi’s usefulness in the transitional phase which must happen soon – or that is already underway. Of course, his autocratic display thus far, is difficult to ignore.

But we have to acknowledge that Gen. Kainerugaba is a very important actor in an ongoing transition. As the son of a sitting president, and current commander of the nation’s military, this is an unusual combination for anyone, and is, therefore, discussable on its merits.

Especially with an octogenarian president, and a nervous country, surely this person – whoever they may be – are a key component. I know, we are all running scared. Many comrades in the struggle for good governance are still missing, such as Sam Mugumya. Many are rotting in jails and ‘safehouses’ across the country.

National Unity Platform (NUP)’s incarcerated supporters are constantly threatened with public executions. We are all scared. Exile has become an even more common word in our conversations.

But I will say one more time, viewed comparatively, President Kainerugaba will never be as brutal as his father – even if he so badly wanted (I shared my reasons here before). But presently, the country needs him rightly guided.

If we are looking towards a peaceful, gradual, no-deadline transition, Gen. Muhoozi features prominently and importantly. This does not mean to suggest I am anti-revolution, but instead aware, on the one hand, that most African countries do not have the critical mass for revolution.

And on the other that Africa remains a colonized continent with leaders being decided elsewhere. You should have read my disappointment when Mr Museveni refused to appoint him, Vice President.

IS YOWERI MUSEVENI LEAVING?

It is no cynicism to say that opposition forces, civil society, activists – have struggled to challenge Gen. Museveni. In fact, as Charles Onyango Obbo observed one time, most of us are resigned to the man’s death.

Undoubtedly, Museveni, and his mostly Western backers, have proven too strong to beat. We have tried elections and failed. Dr Besigye led the country into peaceful protests, but didn’t achieve much. We have tried the judicial route and failed.

Presently, a leading opposition candidate, Dr Kizza Besigye and his lawyer, Erias Lukwago, are fighting for their lives in an inhumane judicial system. Legal rebel and Uganda Law Society president, Isaac Ssemakadde, and leading human rights lawyer, Nicholas Opio were forced out of the country.

Activist Male Mabirizi, a pioneering activist lawyer, is in jail. Even when Museveni’s own comrades – Amama Mbabazi, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, Miria Matembe, Eriya Kategaya, among others – nicely asked him not to stand again, and let them lead the transition, the man simply sidelined them.

In truth, besides our rhetorical belligerence, we have been defeated. Leading opposition figure Bobi Wine is in exile, and Dr Kizza Besigye in jail. We on the outside are walking zombies.

But in appreciating our blighted condition, we ought to find solace in the fact that we will have the chance to fight another day or maybe audition for a new opponent. Indeed, it is here that I see Gen Kainerugaba as the man of the moment. Finally, we can say goodbye to Yoweri Museveni.

I don’t see Gen. Muhoozi withdrawing his preparation/candidacy for president for the 2031 general elections. Neither do I see Museveni seeking to fight a supposedly impatient son, say dropping him from the position of CDF.

Museveni has no choice but to let the son execute his transition as he finds fit. Look, it has never happened in our ‘electoral politics’ that a man declares the intention to stand for president at the beginning of Museveni’s term, and thereafter receive endorsements from NRM politicians and regime tycoons.

This is entirely new territory. Even when it looks like part of a planned script, it is surely the end of Yoweri Museveni, and we will be dealing with a new guy.

MUHOOZI AS CENTRE OF POWER

The challenge for me is whether Muhoozi is able to coalesce all power in the position he occupies. Not just through brute force, but through tact and meticulous calculation.

Because over the course of the last 35 years, Gen. Yoweri Museveni thoroughly emasculated and humiliated all competing and complementary centres of power. He, thereby, emerged as the singular centre of power and authority.

In case of anything, all had to turn to him. With the exception of Buganda kingdom, all the other institutions, cultural or religious command very little respect from their constituents.

Many people love and adore their cultural and religious institutions and leaders, but when push comes to shove, they will ignore their calls. In this state of affair, only Yoweri Museveni is the centre of power, and has thereby held the country together.

If Museveni disappeared all of a sudden, I am afraid there would be absolute pandemonium, with pushing and shoving from different corners and entitled individuals. As I have argued before, we are looking at Sudan-style or Somalia after the fall of Mohammad Siad-Barre.

In moments like this, the countries are wrecked apart with the biggest victims being the wananchi. It is here that Gen. Kainerugaba becomes very useful, and will be asked many questions. He has to emerge as strong enough to reign in and calm any warying factions.

Besides exhibiting brute force, is Gen. Kainerugaba and his team thinking in this direction? Because before the religious institutions, parliament, or the judiciary rediscover their respect and authority, the country will need a strong man able to negotiate and cut deals with contending forces.

CONTINUES A NEOLIBERAL EMBRACE

Especially since Muhoozi has been working with his father – in Somalia, DRC, South Sudan, and more recently in Gaza – all in service of empire, he is useful as far as ensuring continuity of the father’s deals with the Western world.

From refugees to rabid neoliberal embrace, all this has been in the service of the empire. I am not arguing that the continuity of Yoweri Museveni’s neoliberal refugee and mercenary policies is good for Uganda.

Not at all. But a sudden or even just suspected break in these policies risks ruining the country. To this end, continuity is politically-useful in the shortterm, as it safeguards this small and impoverished East African country against the wrath of the EuroAmerican empire.

Consider Egypt and Sudan: In 2011, an “outsider,” to Egypt’s political class, Mohammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood won a democratic election, but was only able to occupy the presidency for just one year before the Euro-American empire threw him out, imprisoned him and had him killed.

His problem was that he represented a complete break of Euro-American control of Egypt. Foreign actors, especially Israel and the United States, wanted to have a firm grip on Egypt for their own interests.

Those interests are very alive in Uganda too. About 10 years later, Sudan finds itself in the same spot. The United States and other foreign interests still believe Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood is capable of winning any presidential election if one was organised yesterday.

This would end in a repeat of 2011 Egypt with an ‘outsider’ as president. When they understood this, they demanded for the military to keep power for an inexplicable ten-year transitional phase.

The country is at war. What Muhoozi does for us in this case is that he will appear as father re-incarnate. This is bad in the short-term but good for the long-term. While he represents continuity, Muhoozi at the same time will represent new energy, and new engagement with the imperial Western world.

He does not even have to understand himself as performing this function. But since he carries his father’s blood and working relationship, it will appear as if his old man is still in charge.

Dear reader, I write the foregoing words not out of support for Gen. Muhoozi, but rather with a sense of foreboding for Uganda, and a bit of long-term thinking. Muhoozi is so useful for our ongoing transition. My prayer is that him and team learn to pursue a more tactful and reconciliatory posture.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University