There is that song where Bobi Wine sings about our adversaries, that “they fear what they don’t know, and they don’t know what they fear.” [Was it about our oppressors or was it about Bebe Cool?]
These lines ought to have a rejoinder laughing at Bobi Wine himself: “the feared also don’t know that they are feared.” Or that “the feared are even in more fear because they don’t know why they are feared.”
While it could be true that Bobi Wine is in even more fear – especially because of the violence he has suffered already – it is not entirely true that Bobi Wine doesn’t really understand why Museveni fears him.
What is truer is Yoweri Museveni and team fear Bobi Wine for reasons Bobi Wine is tongue-tied to articulate: the possibility of a revolution. It is not about Bobi Wine winning the election by collecting more votes and being declared winner.
This is of course unlikely. But the election itself being the platform for revolutionary action in the immediate aftermath of this election. It is a repeat of 2021, but this time with even more anger, more urgency.
Will Bobi Wine pick this revolutionary window – where his supporters – excited by this electoral season, with his absolute encouragement – deciding to take a radical stand, and demanding that Museveni stands down?
I know, the fear is on both sides: with Museveni and co. having the weapons of coercion ranging from teargas, enkoni to live ammunitions, he might return with outright violence – as he has already demonstrated.
Bobi Wine fears for the lives of many Ugandans. But on the other hand, this is Museveni’s worst fear, too: being forced into a situation where he has to bring out his entire might – including live bullets – to dispel protestors and the likelihood of a bloodbath.
But at this point – as often happened under Col Kizza Besigye – the country will be in Bobi Wine’s hands. Dear reader, I do not write these things with glee. But with absolute fear in my bones.
As I have noted plenty of times, what explains the (technical, fairly measured) moments of violence that have come to meet the Bobi Wine campaign is that Bobi Wine supporters have to be endlessly reminded that dreaming bigger than just votes is dangerous business. It is a risky dangerous manufacturing of fear – which risks becoming a provocation, and a catalyst for a response.
ARTICLE 29 (1) (D) To be considered serious in this electoral cycle, the main opposition figure has to confront Museveni on his own terms. He has to meet Museveni’s expectations – that which Museveni is most prepared for.
Just as Yoweri Museveni did in 1980, warning that if elections were stolen (not sure how this conclusion will be reached), they will follow his 1980 example. While they will never consider going to the bush (there are no bushes anymore, and going to the bush is entirely unconstitutional), Bobi Wine has to put Yoweri Museveni on high alert.
He has to endlessly remind Yoweri Museveni that they will mobilize and protest the outcome of this election. To their advantage, Yoweri Museveni is yet to push through an amendment or deletion of Article 29 (1) (d) which guarantee the “freedom to assemble and demonstrate together with others peacefully and unarmed and to petition.”
While this could be the intention, that is, to use the election as catalyst to assemble and demonstrate and petition (because Bobi Wine and team appreciate this election results will be pre-determined), the BW team has to articulate the freedoms enshrined in Article 29 of the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda.
Noting that Museveni is preparing for this possibility, Bobi Wine has to alert him early enough. Either Museveni may back off – which is more unlikely since violence is second nature to his politics – or might decide to escalate, which is more likely and ongoing. As The Observer wondered a couple of weeks ago, one is tempted to imagine NUP is running against the security forces themselves.
But Bobi Wine has to embolden his campaign and posture so as to inspire and force any meaningful adjustment. To be fair, the slogan “Protest Vote” remains ambiguous as it could mean a boycott of the entire election, or an overwhelming vote here in response to an injustice there.
Thanks to NUP lawyer, Sam Muyizi Kayayu, I learned recently that the slogan meant overwhelming the incumbent at the polls, and protesting to protect this victory. But it remains unarticulated.
IS THIS NOT A CALL FOR VIOLENCE?
The framers of the 1995 Constitution and the successive amenders of this document throughout the years have decided not to touch Article 29 because it is part of a good political environment. It is not a call for violence.
Indeed, to express disapproval through mobilizing demonstrations peacefully with others for extended periods is the more civilised approach. It is better than the 1980-86 so-called liberation war, which emerged out of an election and killed thousands.
Notice, however, that our fear is that Yoweri Museveni and team have never seen a peaceful protest in their lives. And under the circumstances, this remains the most potent scare Museveni can ever think of.
Indeed, especially after witnessing Kenya and Tanzania recently, Ugandans are in utmost fear of their government. The compounded fear is that with Museveni turning Ugandans into some form of extended family with him as the paterfamilias, and us his children and grandchildren, it becomes clear that he patronises anyone ready to stand up to him. He is likely to return with violence.
The point I am making here is that Bobi Wine has a call to make – and more than anything else, especially after January 15, the country will be in his hands, not Yoweri Museveni’s.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
” The point I am making here is ” — that YOU , dear Dr, have run out things to say .
Everybody else who has no point to make has already noticed in whose hands Uganda is and in who holds the hammer to pound everything Uganda into submission .
Two things have happened or are happening :1) the Protest Vote has already begun. Millions of young Ugandans from all tribes, regions and backgrounds have refused to be intimidated by the presence of armed thugs . They have decided to come out to meet , cheer and listen to their fellow young Ugandans standing on top of his embattled car , only armed with a flag
2) Violence , both psychological and physical is already here. Rampant kidnappings , ( including that of a priest) arrests and detention without trial , military statements by Muhoozi , Magyezi and other armed people are all clear manifestation of state violence against The PEOPLE of Uganda .
Doc, regarding Kyagulanyi’s messaging, the use of songs with contrasting themes—such as “they fear what they don’t know, and they don’t know what they fear,” and “Buli omu asibba kiwanyi” (Everybody is deceitful)—in my view is an indicator of an unclear or perhaps cynical political philosophy. This perceived confusion has negative implications for the pursuit of accountability and hope for change. In other words, we, as a country, are sandwiched between 2 deceitful politicians, M7 and Kyagulanyi!
M7’s use of violence to capture power in 1986, stemming from an alleged lack of proof of rigging in the 1980 elections by Obote, is the initial reliance on illegal means. His subsequent failure to hold promised elections within four years and his reversal on the issue of presidential term limits, despite his previous statements about the problems of African leaders overstaying in power, are the significant inconsistencies that clearly shows a deceitful individual. Forty years later, M7 is still deceitful and has maintained corruption, nepotism, tribalism and violence as his way of governance! The question remains, how is it possible that his overstay in power could make different from other leaders who have overstayed in power?
On the other hand, Kyagulanyi is shifting priorities, the “people power, our power” movement, initially seen by many as a genuine alternative, was designed Kyagulanyi/NUP to be the leading opposition figure and party over broader systemic change. Concerns remain about Kyagulanyi’s insistence on participating in the 2026 election without the implementation of Supreme Court-recommended electoral reforms, especially given his claims of rigging in the 2021 election. In my view, Kyagulanyi clearly knows that this is counterproductive to achieving a free and fair electoral process, which leads me to conclude that Kyagulanyi asiba kiwanyi in order to make money.
Thanks Dr., Dr. Yusuf.
1980, especially the 10th of December reminds (haunts) Gen Tibuhaburwa how he is still, and was unpopular even in his own backyard in Nyabushozi: the humiliation by DP, candidate, Sam Kuteesa is harrowing and indelible. Which was why after violently taking power pn 25th Jan 1986, he could not risk an immediate General Election because he would have once again lost hands down to UPC or DP.
It was the same terror of losing the 2005, especially after threatening to murder Obote (RIP) on the tarmac at Entebbe International Airport if he dared to return from Exile in Zambia and stand for the 2006 Gen Election.
And that was the same terror that drove the man into the arrest and malicious prosecution of Dr. Kiiza Besigye over RAPE and TREASON.
In oyher words, Tibhaburwa’s sense of popularity is Machiavellian option (which is better- to be feared or loved): A false popularity driven by FEAR or a true popularity driven by the genuine LOVE for a leader?
I wonder e.g., just as he publicly told the UNLF administration (Paul Mwanga RIP) that: if the Dec 1980 General Election was rigged, he would go to the BUSH; what will Tibuhaburwa and his son Gen MK do/say; if the political underdog like Kasibante and/or Joseph Mabirizi told the NRM administration sic the EC, Byabakama that: if the 2026 Gen Election is rigged, they will go to the BUSH?
Otherwise, except his immediate family members; in Dec 1980, who in his/her right state of mind would have voted for a nation-wide unknown, without a penny in his name, unpopular and haggard Yoweri Museveni and his UPM?
In other words, from the BLUE Kyagulanyi and NUP resonation with the youthful Ugandan, is freaking out our 85-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA into the outburst of random violence, like the one witnessed in Dec 2020.
Very true : the 85.year problem is freaking out and pressing all panic buttons .
Yusuf wrote that this is like the 80s. What he did not say that even if UPC/ Obote had its own armed wing , deceptively named UNLA( Uganda National Liberation Army ) UPM´s candidate Yoweri Museveni was never stopped to hold nationwide rallies , although ( on those rallies) he repeatedly threatened to go to the bush if the elections were rigged. More to the point , UNLA, UPC or Obote did not arrest Museveni and hiswell known Fronasa operators even when they had heard his threats and were probably aware that he was planning to fight their government.
Even after he and others started attacking army and Police posts , Obote`s army did not go on rampage arresting anybody that had associated with UPM . Weekly Topic , a news paper that was owned by UPM people such as Bidandi Ssali , Kintu Musoke and Editors like Onyango Obbo , Wafula Ogutu , Kevin Ariro and others was left free to operate in Katwe. These people were not arrested and charged with all sorts of made up offences.
Today , we see something very different : the whole damned army , the Police , un-identifiable thugs , even prisons askaris have been unleashed into the public, with orders not a group of rebels , but to harass, tear gas , intimidate , ONLY ONE 43-year man standing alone after all his inter-circle assistants are dumped in jails.
The who show would be laughable if it was not bizarre . I mean , how on earth do you , a whole General , who crushed everything , now act so scared of one person with his small flag ? You , the Grandfather of all consumers of your wonderful peace , is now afraid that your grandchildren should not came anywhere close to someone who you said has zero value to add ? You sen in all goons to whip your grandchildren just to keep them away from a BOBI WINE ?How bizarre !!!!!
Jes, from a reliable source; after the thug acted out his threat of going to the BUSH; at a roadblock near the Kireka Military Barracks, was one No-nonsense UNLA soldier nicknamed C/hong Gwok, who got hold of Tubuhaburwa and relayed to the higher command up to Obote (RIP), what to do with the man: to Arrest or Kill him? But Obote the human relayed the message back through Chief of Staff, Brig. Oyite Ojok (RIP) to release him. And as they say, the rest is history.
And guess what: that became the enigma between Obote and Gen Tito Lutwa sic the Acholi and Langi in the UNLA armed forces internal conflict that led to the May 1985 Coup.
That was the second time Obote blundered about his mortal political enemies. The first time blunder was before Amin deposed him on 25th Jan 1971, Before his departure to Singapore for the Commonwealth Summit, the IGP Erinayo Oryema had advised Obote to get Amin Arrested. But he did not take the advise seriously and the rest is history.
In other words, like the proverbial cat and its 9 lives, some people can be lucky!
Lakwena, your commitment to detail and genuine desire for change in Uganda is rare and necessary. We are trapped in a tragic loop: recycling violent, pre-determined elections while expecting a different outcome. In 1986, M7 famously diagnosed Africa’s problem as leaders who overstay in power, claiming it breeds ‘corruption, impunity, nepotism, and patronage’. Forty years later, his own government has become the embodiment of that very diagnosis. What is most painful is that while thousands have died in pursuit of a democratic transition, the 2021 and upcoming 2026 cycles are breaking records for state-sponsored violence. By continuing to participate in this rigged system, Kyagulanyi isn’t leading us to freedom—he is leading us back into the same vicious cycle that feeds the regime’s illusion of legitimacy.
The foundational illegitimacy of this government, established through the gun rather than the ballot, is a fact we must never forget. Yet, we face a compounding betrayal: Kyagulanyi is actively leading us into a vicious, distracting cycle that strategically divides Ugandans along party lines. This chaos selfishly benefits a political class that enriches itself—making significant money for achieving absolutely nothing—while the nation suffers.
Lakwena , apparently not all cats have 9 lives, I see . To some cats , one life is enough as long as you close out your mind and only focus on living the same regardless of all the other lives around you.
Anyway , Uganda is all but a long sad story . Slow poison .
Jes, Kyagulanyi’s current approach within the opposition appears disconnected from the immense suffering of innocent Ugandans who have lost their lives, gone missing, or endured torture and continuous persecution. A more effective strategy is needed to address these grave human rights issues. Kyagulanyi clearly knows that participating in a system widely perceived as fraudulent and violent (organized by M7’s regime) only sustain the status quo rather than challenge it effectively. For example: the tragic 2018 assassination of Yasin Kawuma and the recent 2025 detention and torture of Eddie Mutwe underscore a deeply concerning environment of impunity in Uganda. It’s clearly known that M7 ordered his militants to go and kill Kyagulanyi, however, Kawuma ended up being killed instead! Gen. Muhoozi M7 bragged that he is the one to abducted Mutwe and tortured him in his basement and also taught him Lunyankole! These severe human rights violations provide more than enough justification for sustained civic action. However, individual [Kyagulanyi/NUP] protests are not enough; the paramount objective for the 2026 must be a unified opposition that speaks with one voice. A singular, cohesive strategy is essential to demand that, without electoral reforms, no elections. While a protest vote sends a message of dissatisfaction, it is not enough to secure our future. To achieve fundamental change, the opposition must move beyond the strategy of a ‘protest vote’ and present a truly unified front for the 2026. Our collective objective should not be to participate, but to demand a definitive end to the current regime’s governance. Unity is the only way to transform public frustration into a real transition of power.
M7 must go should be the slogan as a strategic act of resistance. The protest vote is insufficient without a broader coalition or transition plan.
The fear of M7’s and corrupt billionaires protecting their gains is so overwhelming that one buys the idea that this will be the last election by adult suffrage. The surge of Bobi wave has clearly shown that the masses are RESISTING the old resistance movement. Therefore, to bypass the people’s votes, the next President will be voted in a compromised Parliament through aye and nay chorus out of fear of People’s Power. So, the Byabakama’s EC, the army, police, judiciary, prisons, etc., will sleep in peace in their new Fool’s Paradise.
I think that when the noisy smoky days is ended and Kyagulanyi has managed to find a bed and recover from all the tear gas , he thumbs his chest for a lot of reasons, some of which are how he has managed to find the courage to stand up to Museveni`s bullies; how the public has responded and come out in record numbers to welcome and listen to what he has to say .
My guess it that Museveni and his group never imagined that Kyagulanyi would cause all this trouble. It looks like they under-estimated him and the impact of his campaign style . I do also think that they are embarrassed and upset that he has burst the myth that NUP does not exist beyond Buganda and Busoga .
Jes, once again, it not about how Kyagulanyi “has managed to find the courage to stand up to M7’s bullies,” and “how the public has responded and come out in record numbers to welcome and listen to what he has to say.” There’s nothing new under the sun about what Kyagulanyi has done. Completely nothing! Also, M7 has not changed of who he is. Therefore, the discourse should focus not just on Kyagulanyi’s public appearances and reception, but on the substance and strategy of the opposition movement itself. Kyagulanyi’s actions follow a pattern seen in past political efforts, suggesting a lack of novelty in the approach. The nature of the current regime also remains consistent, with no change in its methods.
The only key distinction is the differential treatment of key opposition leaders; Besigye, for instance, has faced significantly more arrests and detentions and is currently incarcerated due to his stance against the electoral process. Kyagulanyi’s narrative inadvertently downplays the long history of electoral issues in Uganda, by focusing primarily on the irregularities of the 2021 election. Kyagulanyi is intentionally giving the impression that M7 has never rigged any election but only the 2021 election! Furthermore, Kyagulanyi is misleading the nation that, he [alone] is the only one who can win the bogus and violent election, because there’s democracy in Uganda and he is determined to show us that it works. Kyagulanyi has gone on to amplify his belief by urging his supporters that in case M7 kills him, they should take his body to the state house! Kyagulanyi has built a [political] cult rother than a meaningful struggle for change.
In other words, his claim that he is the sole individual capable of winning [bogus and violent elections], and his use of symbolic calls for supporters to parade his body to the state house, have led some analysts to suggest that he is fostering a personality-driven movement rather than a sustainable, institutional struggle for change, which is risking long-term failure.
AI can be used to predict the outcome of next year election.
Fellow Ugandans, there’s an article in the Monitor in which Ssemakadde, as the ULS president, endorsed Kyagulanyi as a candidate for president, and further urged lawyers to support Kyagulanyi. In my view, there’s nothing wrong with that, however some have criticized him and said that ULS has historically maintained political neutrality. In a statement signed by Prof. Ssempebwa, the Senior Counsel Bar stated that, “We strongly condemn all attempts to brand ULS as a partisan body.” Prof. Ssempebya, what isn’t a partisan body? Is it the judiciary? Why haven’t you come out to condemn the partisan body of the judiciary to always be involved in persecuting the opposition? For example, Besigye and Haji Lutale are rotting in jail and unfairly denied bail. NUP supporters are being detained, some since 2020, without any justifiable reason other than opposing M7’s oppressive regime. The judiciary is tight lipped! Of recent, NUP member were denied bail. Why didn’t you, Senior Counsel Bar, come out to condemn the judiciary for being partisan? The commander of militants, Gen. Muhoozi M7, not only endorsed his father, but he is involved in torturing innocent Ugandans and teaching them Lunyankole in his basement! Why haven’t you come out to condemn such partisan [active] militant but condemn Ssemakadde?
In other words Remase, the Prof. Ssempebwa of this country check their fingernails, adjust they ties, straighten their jackets, clear their throats/voices and play safe.
NO SWEAT and BLOOD so long as the money is in the pocket.
I sometimes question whether Yusuf is being genuine. He urges a boycott of elections and advises Bobi Wine to instead take people to the streets to overthrow Museveni, a military dictator who has already shown a high propensity to kill demonstrators. If elections are boycotted, what legitimacy would Bobi Wine or his supporters have to claim power or justify mass action? It is also naïve to assume that elections are easily rigged regardless of turnout. In reality, the easiest elections to rig are those with low voter participation. When people stay away, ballot stuffing and multiple voting become far easier to execute. However, when citizens vote in large numbers, these tactics can be overwhelmed, as we have seen in several by-elections. Mass participation is the only realistic, lawful path to dislodging Museveni. Calling for street riots instead of electoral mobilisation is not a strategy but suicide.
Mawanda, our primary concern for the 2026 election should not merely be about Kyagulanyi, but the structural integrity of the electoral process itself. Critics argue the system is predetermined due to the failure to implement Supreme Court-mandated electoral reforms and the persistence of selective violence against opposition figures. Given the fact that the 2021 results were contested under these same conditions, there is a valid question as to whether voter turnout alone can overcome a system that many perceive as fundamentally compromised. The electoral challenge is framed as a personal contest between Kyagulanyi and M7, yet this individualization risks ignoring the structural realities of Uganda’s governance. Decades of institutional entrenchment, particularly within the security apparatus, suggest that no single party can overwhelm the system alone. For a meaningful transition, many observers argue that the entire opposition must unify, shifting the focus from individual legitimacy to a collective strategy capable of addressing a deeply militarized political environment.
Kyagulanyi’s focus on overwhelming the 2026 polls appears to underestimate the resilience of an authoritarian system built over 40 years. With all state institutions, especially the militants, under centralized control, the idea that Kyagulanyi can bypass these hurdles is being naive. Real change in Uganda requires a broad coalition of all democratic forces, rather than a strategy centered on the popularity of Kyagulanyi or NUP.
Mawanda, Yusuf may be right. There is nothing more terrifying to a dictators than a screaming and charging barehanded mob.
In other words, it is a barehanded mob terror that can make a Machinegun wielding soldier susu in his pants, drop his gun and run for his/her dear life.
It is the paradoxical power of the weak. During the 2011 Arab Spring, it was the barehanded Tunisian Grandmas shaking their frail fists in the air and screaming “get out”; that sent Dictator Ben Ali leaving the Tunisian State House/Palace without packing a bag.