For millions of families across Eastern and Southern Africa, the next El Niño may not arrive as a single disaster.
It could come as a flooded classroom, a failed harvest, an outbreak of disease or a child losing weight because food has become harder to find.
UNICEF says more than 162 million children, over two-thirds of all children in the region, live in areas exposed to the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño. Uganda is among 13 countries where the agency says drought, extreme heat and flooding could threaten children’s nutrition, health, access to clean water, education and safety.
The warning matters because El Niño is not simply a weather event. It is a natural climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt rainfall and temperatures worldwide.
In East Africa, UNICEF says the short-rains season carries an increased risk of flooding, while the effects on children could continue well into 2027. For ordinary families, those shifts can quickly become economic and health emergencies.
Floods can destroy homes and roads, contaminate water sources and keep children away from school. Poor rainfall can reduce harvests and push up food insecurity, leaving young children particularly vulnerable to malnutrition.
“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF regional director for Eastern and Southern Africa.
“Across the region, children are facing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and disrupted learning. Further, major climate shocks will likely push children and the systems they rely on to the breaking point.”
The scale of the danger differs from country to country. In Somalia, UNICEF says flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario.
In Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children may be affected in already food-insecure areas, while South Sudan faces a combination of drought, heat and localized flooding that could worsen malnutrition, disease outbreaks and displacement.
Yet the money available to prevent the worst effects remains limited. UNICEF says less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, funding used before disaster strikes rather than after children are already hungry, displaced or sick.
The agency is seeking $173 million under its existing 2026 humanitarian appeal to support 13 priority countries. It wants governments and donors to pre-position nutrition supplies, strengthen disease surveillance and vaccination, secure water and sanitation systems, protect schools and prepare cash assistance for vulnerable households.
UNICEF argues that acting early is also cheaper: every $1 invested in disaster-risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs.
“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them,” Kadilli said.
“The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price.”
In Uganda, the unanswered question is how exposed particular districts, schools, health facilities and farming communities may be. That is where the next reporting should go: from a regional warning to the households that will have to live through it.