Will Winnie climb the Museveni mountain?
With Winnie Byanyima serving up the possibility of challenging President Museveni and/or the NRM in 2021, Ugandan opposition politics may be about to change fundamentally. But as BENON HERBERT OLUKA writes, Winnie faces fundamental challenges.
If the trailblazing executive director of Oxfam, Winnie Byanyima, pursues her expressed interest to contest for Uganda’s presidency in the future, her journey to that dream will be wrought with challenges that could derail rather than support her dream.
Byanyima, whose term of office at Oxfam expires in 2018, will turn 58 on January 13, 2017. This means she is eligible to contest the next three presidential elections, if the 75-year age-limit remains in place.
On Saturday, December 10, Byanyima told NTV, on the sidelines of celebrations to mark the anniversary of a civil society organisation whose formation she spearheaded, that she is ready to vie for the highest political office in the land.
“I have no question in my mind that I have the ability or even the passion to change our country,” she is quoted to have said, while acknowledging that she would need the backing of a strong team around her.
Political leaders and analysts who The Observer spoke to, in a bid to understand the implications of that announcement, agree that Byanyima has what it takes to mount a credible challenge for the position. However, they also speak with one voice on the fact that she would face greater challenges than most other political players going for the same job.
FROM BESIGYE TO BESIGYE
The first hurdle, according to Dr Sabiiti Makara, an associate professor of political science at Makerere University, could be presented by her family linkages. Byanyima is married to Dr Kizza Besigye, the founding president of Uganda’s leading opposition political party, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and a four-time presidential candidate.
According to Makara, although Byanyima could benefit from the Besigye political brand if it is still vibrant by the time she contests, there is also the danger that some Ugandans may not want to witness a political transition from, literally, one Besigye to another at a time when there is a possibility of Museveni choosing a successor from his own family.
“Because of her connection with Besigye, people will think that she is trying to succeed her husband. I think that is where she will find a problem. Many people might not buy into that,” he explained yesterday.
It is also not so clear whether Besigye, who continues to play a prominent role in the country’s politics, will relinquish the political spotlight to his wife if she eventually decides to take her first shot at the presidency in 2021.
So far, there seems to be some divergence of views in the Besigye household on the next course of action. The most plausible hint of this emerged on Wednesday when Besigye addressed FDC leaders in Gulu district as part of the party’s ongoing regional consultative meetings.
DIVERGENT VIEWS
In his speech, Besigye argued that FDC members should not begin to think of preparing for the 2021 general elections when the contentious issues concerning the 2016 elections have not yet been resolved.
“The regime has intensified propaganda against us with the sole intention of shifting political focus to 2021. They want to make people forget 2016. You have seen a government poll trying to identify 2021 candidates; they have also tried to involve Winnie Byanyima purposely to shift debate to 2021. We are saying NO. The 2016 elections have not been concluded; and so, we cannot focus on 2021,” he said.
Besigye and his closest allies insist that he won the 2016 election but was rigged out by an Electoral Commission loyal to President Museveni. They have continued to demand for an independent audit into the election results.
Without the audit, Besigye has promoted the “defiance campaign,” ostensibly to frustrate the Museveni government from leading the country. The result is almost daily confrontations with the security forces, which some FDC officials say takes public attention from the party’s efforts to organise effectively for future political contests.
The former FDC secretary general, Alice Alaso Asianut, told The Observer that Byanyima’s interest in the presidency provides another leadership alternative to a party where some members were failing to look beyond Besigye.
“Initially, people thought that only Besigye could be FDC flag bearer, but what Winnie is saying is acting in recognition of the fact that any senior leader who wishes to contest deserves the chance,” she said.
Alaso, the former Serere Woman MP, argued that Byanyima’s argument that it would take a team effort to take her to the Holy Grail buttresses the position of party president Mugisha Muntu that FDC must build party structures if it is to overwhelm NRM at the ballot.
“I am glad Winnie recognises the importance of teams. Therefore, between now and when she offers herself, we should all – as a party – invest in building the structures of the party. It is only a party that has functional structures at all levels that can provide a team that will help anybody who wishes to campaign for president to win, not a few individuals that you handpick from around town. That can’t be a team,” she emphasised.
TOO EARLY TO CALL
However, Dr Simba Ssali Kayunga, a lecturer of political science at Makerere University, says the dynamic nature of Uganda’s politics makes it difficult to make any conclusive assessment of the impact of Byanyima’s announcement.
“It is too early to determine the impact [of a Byanyima presidential bid]. I expect so many things to happen between now and 2021 which are likely to impact on anybody intending to stand for president,” he said.
Kayunga likened Byanyima’s announcement to a similar one that the former vice president, Prof Gilbert Bukenya, made shortly after the 2011 presidential elections that he would contest for president in 2016.
“When Bukenya announced his intention, there was still excitement [like in Byanyima’s case] but I thought it was too early and I think I was proven right that, with subsequent developments, he became quite irrelevant at the end,” he said.
According to Kayunga, there are a number of “fundamental questions” likely to shape the next presidential elections that have not yet been resolved. The most significant, he said, is the issue of the age limit for presidential candidates, which he said would create a different set of challenges for any prospective candidate who wants to dislodge Museveni.
“If the age-limit is removed and Museveni is contesting, the dynamics are going to be different and that can impact on Winnie’s candidacy,” he said. “And if the age limit is not removed, the political dynamics which will be created will be so complex that Winnie will also enter into a political landscape which is full of uncertainty.”
hobenon@observer.ug