On a recent afternoon in Kampala, Uganda’s Justice minister Norbert Mao, sketched out his vision for the 2026 elections.
It was not a picture of rallies full of chants, or convoys of supporters streaming down dusty roads. Instead, Mao promised something far more subdued.
“The elections will be peaceful. No processions,” he said.
“You’ll announce your rally, drive there, speak to the people if they’re present, and then everyone goes home. On election day, people will vote. That’s it. It’s going to be so quiet. And those who don’t want it to be quiet will be made quiet.”
The remarks landed with the weight of a warning. In a country where campaign seasons have long been marked by mass rallies, music trucks and heavy-handed policing, Mao’s description sounded less like a democratic exercise and more like a tightly managed ritual. Mao went further, declaring that Uganda’s political future would not be settled at the ballot box.
“Power is not for everyone,” he told his audience. “The transition will not be based on elections. It is already happening behind closed doors, in the rooms that actually matter. TV studios are just loudspeakers. But the loudspeaker doesn’t speak on its own; it’s the microphone that matters.”
In his telling, the real center of power lies in an alliance he dubbed “the group of five”: the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), his own Democratic Party, the Uganda People’s Congress, the Forum for Democratic Change, and the People’s Progressive Party. To this group, he added JEEMA, the Patriotic League of Uganda led by Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and other allies.
Those outside this circle, he argued, were “regime change fundamentalists,” dangerous and unfit to govern. Mao’s blunt dismissal of open contestation reflects what many Ugandans already suspect: that the 2026 vote is less about choice than choreography.
ANALYSTS HEAR A THREAT
For senior lawyer and political analyst Peter Walubiri, Mao’s message was unambiguous.
“He is telling you that political campaigns will proceed strictly under President Museveni’s rules,” Walubiri said.
“We are not about to witness the kind of transition many Ugandans hope for, a true democratic handover. Instead, we may see a succession where Museveni hands power to his son, and people like Mao are included just enough to enjoy a few crumbs from the table.”
Walubiri argued that the so-called “regime change fundamentalists” are in fact the only genuine opposition. The rest, he said, are “groomsmen for Mr Museveni,” lending legitimacy to a process that is “just a charade.”
Godber Tumushabe of the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies described Mao’s comments as reckless, particularly for a Justice minister. “When I heard him talking about silencing people, I thought he was behaving with a kind of rural-urban excitement,” Tumushabe said.
“In his position, a higher standard of discipline and speech is expected. Remarks like his only serve to radicalize people on both sides of the divide.”
He warned that a transition engineered behind closed doors, without national dialogue, risks entrenching leaders who rule through money and force rather than consent. Joel Ssenyonyi, leader of the opposition in parliament and spokesperson for Bobi Wine’s National Unity Platform, accused Mao of betrayal.
“Does he think that by saying what he’s said, we will just sit back and do nothing? Absolutely not,” Ssenyonyi said.
“Nobody scammed DP supporters into believing he joined government to pave the way for Museveni’s exit, only for him to now say we should support Museveni to continue ruling.” To Ssenyonyi, Mao has become a student of Museveni himself, making promises only to break them.
“We’re not focusing on Mao,” he said. “We are continuing to do what we must to bring about change.” Mao’s prediction of the “quietest election Uganda has ever seen” raises more questions than it answers.
Is quiet meant as a promise of peace, or a threat of enforced silence? Either way, the Justice minister’s words have underscored a growing unease: that in Uganda, political transition is increasingly shaped not by voters in the open, but by elites negotiating in private.
For citizens hoping for a genuine contest of ideas in 2026, the message is clear: the real decisions may already have been made.
Uganda belongs to Rwandese Museveni & it’s POWERLESS tribally divided ruled Ugandans ensuring his lifetime rule with fake presidential, parliamentary, local elections! Yet not even Mao, so called opposition leaders… are aware that going for fake elections only reafirm their LOVE for Museveni!
Ugandans already forgot Dr. Besigye who took care of Museveni’s health & is thanked by being locked in prison when he realised, too late, that Museveni must be removed!
Ugandans, please, you MUST NOT go for next useless elections to ensure Rwandese Museveni is protected for life as owner of the zone formed by your tribal lands!
Ugandans, don’t listen to fake opposition leaders blinding you to ensure Museveni’s lifetime rule with fake elections that he will rule with or without!
Ugandans, you don’t need the useless parliament that ensure the dictatorship by not working for the people!
UNITY of Palestinians is making UK, Europe, Arab/Muslim countries bolster terrorist Hamas!
After filling Uganda with migrants, refugees, have UN, UK, EU… said anything about how tribally divided ruled Ugandans live under Rwandese Museveni since 1986?
Why waste tax payers funds on an election where the winner is already known?
Funds that would have been used to construct hospitals, roads, increase salaries for teachers, doctors and soldiers etc build factories thus creating jobs in different regions
a true mucholi, betrayer, traitor
Blame the delusion on taking too many daily drugs; sanity flees via the windows in all sorts of directions.
Seguya, you’re right. The truth became clear to Ugandans when Gen. Lutwa and Bazilio Okello, both Acholi, betrayed Obote. Museveni took advantage of this and ousted them along with their army. But after Museveni defeated them, they turned against him, waging a 20-year war that devastated the region.
After the war, some Acholi began posing as Museveni’s staunchest supporters. Remember MP Antony Akol? He won favor by assaulting MP Zake, then crossed to NRM—only to be rejected in the NRM primaries by his own people. The same happened to MP Mapinduzi, who ditched FDC and NUP for NRM and was also rejected.
Still, a few Acholi collaborators teamed up with state actors to overturn the victories of those who had defeated the defectors. They pressured winners not to go to the NRM tribunal or run as independents, fearing they’d embarrass the new converts. This pattern of betrayal extends into the judiciary, parliament, and executive.
Of course it is a chilling message indeed if the 2026 national elections are again rigged, violated, and not free and fair. This is a Politician of the Democratic party that was formed by Uganda democracy but has failed in its national and international ambitions to bring about any successful free and fair national democratic elections to this poor country! The Ganda tribes people will naturally loose all sense of belonging to their country that is out of their control and thus loose all hope in the sovereignty of the country of Uganda. If the country of Uganda was formulated by the gentleness of the ancient civilization of the people of the Kingdom state of Buganda and its rich human culture, and here comes African people who seem bent on destroying such ideals, of course another brutal armed or unarmed struggle is inevitable. For the citizens of the Kingdom state to continue to participate in national elections that are violent, that are full of Gerrymandering, and are fraudulent, and not free and fair, that is the risk the state of Buganda must take to recover itself as a modern well recognised African state in the world! Nyini ensi nyaffe mugifudde latrine?
In other words, after securing his Meal Card from the Porcupine, with whom he now rolls in bed, a potbellied Mao now speaks in tongues: someone with more than one tongue coming out of his throat (courtesy of Allan Tacca, Sunday Monitor).