Machar’s arrest threatens resumption of civil war in South Sudan, UN warns

The arrest of South Sudan’s First Vice President, Dr Riek Machar, has further deepened tensions between the country’s top political figures, raising concerns about renewed instability.

According to media reports, Machar’s house in the capital, Juba, was surrounded by soldiers from the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) who disarmed all Machar’s soldiers. Speaking to Radio Tamazuj, Pal Mai Deng, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM-IO), the group to which Machar is the chairman, confirmed that indeed Machar has been placed under house arrest.

“With grave concern, I can confirm that the First Vice President and the leader of the SPLM/A-IO has been placed under house arrest. This is an unfortunate move, and this violates the revitalized peace agreement.”

Pal also serves as the Minister of Water and Irrigation. The news about Machar’s arrest was first announced by Reath Muoch Tang, the acting chairperson of the SPLM-IO’s Committee on Foreign Relations, who said Machar was told that he was under arrest by the Defence minister, Gen Chol Thon Balok.

From early this year, there has been heightened tension between Machar and South Sudan President Salva Kiir, which has led to the arrest of senior politicians allied to the opposition leader. In the past few weeks, these tensions have boiled over after clashes in the Nasir and Upper Nile regions between SSPDF and the White army, a militia mainly composed of ethnic Nuer, a tribe to which Machar belongs.

In the past, this militia, which has been accused of extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations, has been allied with Machar. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has warned that if not reigned in, South Sudan risks slipping back to a full-scale civil war.

“To prevent a relapse into civil war, the parties must recommit to the revitalized peace agreement by ceasing all hostilities and strictly adhering to the ceasefire, resolving grievances through dialogue, and reconvening as a truly unified government… We encourage the President and First Vice President to lead efforts to prevent further military confrontation and restore calm by meeting to resolve differences and making a joint public statement reassuring all South Sudanese of their shared commitment to peace. This will prove that their priority is to put the interests of their people ahead of their own by preventing a return to widespread conflict that will devastate, not only South Sudan, but the entire region,” said Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMISS.

The United States, which has been South Sudan’s biggest promoter as an independent country, has called for the release of Machar from house arrest. The US Bureau of African Affairs, headed by Molly Phee, who has previously served as US ambassador to South Sudan, said on X that Machar’s arrest risks escalating an already tense situation.

“We are concerned by reports that South Sudan’s First Vice-President Machar is under house arrest. We urge President Kiir to reverse this action & prevent further escalation of the situation.”

Two weeks ago, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) were deployed in South Sudan, allegedly on the invitation of Kiir. Parliament last week, in retrospect, authorized the deployment to ostensibly stop South Sudan, which is Uganda’s biggest trading partner, from slipping back to civil war.

But Machar has accused the UPDF of adding fuel to the already ongoing conflict. The UPDF has also been accused of bombing civilian areas in the Upper Nile region. The conflict started in 2013 after Kiir accused Machar, whom he had earlier sacked as Vice President, of fomenting a coup d’état.

There was widespread killing in cold blood of the Nuer in Juba city and some other South Sudanese states on the first day of the alleged coup. This led to a civil war that was only brought to an end in 2015 after the signing of a peace agreement that returned Machar as Vice President and the sharing of power.

However, this peace agreement also broke down in 2016 when there was another massive attack by the forces loyal to Kiir on Machar’s forces in Juba and other states such as Upper Nile State, Jonglei, among others.

This attack gave way to the resumption of the civil war that, according to estimates, has killed over 400,000 people and displaced a million others in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and other countries.

A revitalized peace agreement that created the transitional government of national unity in 2018 had, for at least seven years, led to relative peace in Africa’s youngest nation. Among others, the peace agreement provided for the holding of general elections in two years from 2018.

However, these have been postponed several times, the most recent being last year. South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011 after a civil war that lasted over 50 years. Since becoming independent, it has never held a general election, and Kiir, who replaced the charismatic leader of the SPLM Dr John Garang de Mabior, has been president since then.