Kawempe: Why Museveni believed NRM would win

The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) spent nearly four hours in a heated internal debate during a recent Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting—focused solely on the party’s unexpected loss in the Kawempe North by-election.

The defeat, which saw National Unity Platform (NUP) candidate Elias Luyimbaazi Nalukoola declared winner with 17,764 votes against NRM’s Faridah Nambi who garnered 8,593, dealt a significant symbolic blow to President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

According to a party insider who spoke to The Observer on condition of anonymity, President Museveni had placed considerable political capital on securing a win in this by-election. He had personally signed off on all requests brought to him by NRM political operatives and security agencies involved in the campaign, believing these would guarantee a victory.

Though winning the Kawempe North seat would not have shifted the balance of power in parliament—where NRM already enjoys a commanding majority with at least 342 out of 529 voting members of parliament—success would have had strategic value.

It would have sent a strong signal of political recovery in Buganda, a region where the ruling party has faced increasing hostility and declining support, especially following the 2021 general elections. Even senior party members have acknowledged that NRM’s standing in Buganda has deteriorated, owing to what many residents see as years of unfulfilled promises.

This political shift has been compounded by the rise of the NUP and its leader, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine. NUP has rapidly become the dominant political force in urban Buganda, making the by-election an important litmus test for NRM’s popularity in the region.

According to the source, President Museveni had authorised the release of Shs 4 billion to support the NRM campaign in Kawempe North. The funds were to be used to facilitate logistics, voter mobilisation and other operational needs. However, the overwhelming loss of Faridah Nambi—a high- profile candidate and daughter of NRM’s national vice chair- person Haji Moses Kigongo— reportedly left the president furious.

“Museveni demanded accountability from those who received the money,” the source said. “He couldn’t understand how, after such a substantial investment, the candidate suffered a humiliating defeat.”

The president’s frustration is believed to stem not only from the financial outlay but also from the extensive coordination between political and security operatives deployed to secure the win. According to intelligence presented to him, the NRM had been informed that NUP supporters were intimidating voters, particularly those known to be sympathetic to the ruling party.

This allegedly led to the perception that many NRM supporters feared turning up to vote. In response, the state deployed significant security resources on election day, with the stated objective of reassuring voters and maintaining order. The strategy, however, appears to have failed to sway voter turnout in favour of NRM.

Critics have pointed to the heavy security presence as a form of voter intimidation in itself, while allegations of interference in the electoral process by security forces have further complicated the narrative. In his March 16 letter, President Yoweri Museveni indirectly acknowledged the challenges that marred the Kawempe North by-election, particularly the shortcomings of the security deployment he had sanctioned.

“The heavy deployment may have stopped mass violence, but it could not stop those micro crimes… Those who intimidate NRM supporters must stop and apologise to those you intimidate. Those using the language yemwe mutusibyeko NRM must stop,” the president wrote.

The president’s belief that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) could have won the election was rooted not only in confidence in the party’s mobilisation structures but also in figures drawn from multiple sources.

These included the official NRM register and data from informal support groups operating outside the formal party framework but with close ties to the state security apparatus. One of the key contributors to this belief was the Uganda Police Crime Intelligence director, Col Christopher Damulira.

For the past five years, Col Damulira has presided over a network of youth structures—often referred to as “ghetto groups”—across the Kampala Metropolitan Area. These groups, composed primarily of unemployed young people, many of whom have been accused of petty crime, were originally formed to counter the growing influence of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and its leader Robert Kyagulanyi, among Kampala’s urban poor.

Col Damulira organised these groups into semi-formal structures and facilitated their access to government poverty alleviation programmes, such as Saccos, Emyooga, and the Parish Development Model.

According to sources close to the ruling party, Damulira assured the president that these groups—numbering approximately 100 members in each village within the metropolitan area—could be mobilised to support the NRM candidate.

“The president looked at the NRM register, then at the lists from Damulira and [Sam] Kutesa,” one source told The Observer.

“He believed the NRM had about 30,000 reliable votes. If these supporters were protected and turned out to vote, the NRM would win.”

Based on this projection, Museveni approved a wide-ranging security and political operation. Military commanders were deployed to every polling station to oversee security. Senior police officers, army personnel, government ministers, and high-ranking NRM officials were assigned to each parish to coordinate logistics and mobilise voter turnout.

At a subsequent CEC meeting held at State House Entebbe, President Museveni reportedly expressed visible frustration and demanded an explanation for the loss. According to insiders, he did not rely solely on reports from top officials in the room but instead began making phone calls during the meeting to junior officers who had overseen security at various polling stations, questioning them about what went wrong on the ground.

“He actually believes the NRM candidate was cheated,” said the source. “That’s why the decision was made to challenge the election results in court. He is very angry that an impression is being created that there are areas in the country where people are afraid to even contest on the NRM ticket.”

This sentiment reflects deeper concerns within the ruling party about its diminishing popularity in urban areas, particularly in the central region. Kawempe North’s loss is seen not merely as an electoral setback but as a symptom of a broader decline in the party’s appeal in regions once considered strongholds.

The president’s reaction also underscores the growing tension between the NRM’s electoral machinery and the political realities on the ground—where mobilisation, even with significant financial and security backing, no longer guarantees victory.

As the party prepares for upcoming national elections, Kawempe North has emerged as a case study in the limitations of state power when confronted with determined and organised opposition from an increasingly disillusioned electorate.

In his post-election letter, President Yoweri Museveni stated that he had authorised an investigation into the conduct of the Kawempe North by-election, alleging that the exercise was marred by ballot stuffing and voter intimidation. However, these claims have been met with scepticism by various stakeholders, including opposition leaders and even some voices within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) itself.

In an interview, Nalukoola said he is unbothered by the prospect of a court petition and instead urged the Electoral Commission (EC) to gazette his victory without further delay. The gazetting of a parliamentary election winner is a legal prerequisite for swearing-in, and also triggers the 30- day period within which any petition challenging the result must be filed.

“Gen Museveni could have done better than that,” Nalukoola said. “If he was in charge, he would have sent investigators on the ground to ascertain the truth. To be sincere, the NRM has lost Kawempe North. The only right statement in his publication is that ‘it’s time for the NRM to address its mistakes in Kawempe.’ But his insistence that there was vote rigging and intimidation to the detriment of NRM—he was misinformed.”

Nalukoola’s assertion that the election reflected the will of the people appears to be supported by some within the NRM itself. Ofwono Opondo, director of the Uganda Media Centre and a prominent NRM spokesperson, took a surprisingly critical stance in his weekly column published in the government-owned New Vision newspaper.

He argued that pursuing a legal challenge would be futile and politically unwise.

“Rather than going to court or throwing unhelpful political tantrums over the Kawempe loss, the NRM should simply wash off the heavy mud on its shoes,” Opondo wrote.

“Blaming others when we have been in charge of Uganda for the last four decades is not a very clever strategy.”

The Electoral Commission gazetted Nalukoola on March 24, opening the way for him to be sworn in as the new member of parliament for Kawempe North.