PEREZA AHABWE is a former minister of state for Local Government. He was also Rubanda East MP between 2006 and 2011. He raised eyebrows when he said in an article published in The Observer on January 16 that Janet Museveni, and not First Son Maj Gen Kainerugaba Muhoozi, is likely to succeed President Museveni as leader of this country.
In an interview with Edris Kiggundu on Monday, the former minister reinforces his theory on a possible Janet Museveni presidency and explains how Amama Mbabazi fell from grace to grass.
After you lost in the 2010 NRM primaries, you disappeared from public view. What are you up to?
Well, I am in Makerere University. I am doing a PhD in Economics. My research is on energy demand at household level. I wanted to do energy demand in the broad context but I realized it would be a broad scope. I have six months to complete my research.
You stood in the NRM primaries in Rubanda East in 2010 and lost. Now you are pursuing a PhD. Are you still interested in politics or you want to focus on an academic career?
You see, life ahead has so many possibilities. Once you have gone into politics, it is difficult to opt out. It is such an interesting thing and people don’t realize it. Once you are used to politics, you still want to be heard, to be visible because you are always bursting with ideas. It is not easy to get away. However, our politics has been commercialized so much. You need so much money.
When I went in last time, I based my assumption on two points; one, I had done a lot [as MP before] and some people urged me to come back. The second one is that I had been mistreated by some elements in government for political reasons.
What are those political reasons?
In 2008 there was that issue of Temangalo. And some of us did not know it would be problematic in future to take a position [on Temangalo]. During the parliamentary hearing, I differed with the committee on Cosase (which wanted Amama Mbabazi punished for his role in the saga) and I wrote a minority report [absolving Mbabazi] with other colleagues. I largely wrote the report.
Soon after, presumably with the influence of Mbabazi, you became minister of state for Local Government?
I don’t know whether it was related but my position is very clear and I don’t regret it. Not at any one time did Mbabazi even call me to tell me to help him with any matter.
I think certain people who had an axe to grind with Mbabazi thought my report was unfavourable to them; they generated anger against me and fought me. These were powerful people in government.
Who are they? Mention names!
I can mention them because they know it. The former vice president Prof Gilbert Bukenya participated in my ouster. Maj Gen Kahinda Otafiire also participated. Maj Gen Jim Muhwezi even mobilized people and sent them via Kanungu to me.
They even confessed to me that they had come to fight me. Hassan Basajjabalaba told me in my face that he was not happy I had divided Bushenyi into many districts. It was as if I was the owner of this country. The list is big, some of them I can’t name them.
The other group was based in Kabale. There are people who were not happy that I had become a minister earlier than them. This team was led by Shem Bageine.
So, your association with Mbabazi, real or perceived, played a role in your political downfall?
Yes.
Did you ever associate with Mbabazi in any way?
Not until I became a minister. As a senior person in government and as secretary general of NRM, I used to interact with him.
When Mbabazi came out in 2015 and declared he would run against President Museveni, were you surprised?
For me I think it was ill-conceived. I have always said that Mbabazi was not very wise to come out and stand against Museveni. When you have a strong person like Museveni who you have worked with for all those years, it was not right to come up and contest against his boss.
There is talk that there had been a gentleman’s agreement between Museveni and Mbabazi. That Museveni had agreed to hand over power to Mbabazi in 2016.
Even if Museveni changed his mind, does that qualify Mbabazi to get angry? One philosopher, Machiavelli, once said “The promise made was a necessity of the past, the word broken is a necessity of the present.”
I can promise because of circumstances at that time; when I change my mind, it means new circumstances have emerged and this should not warrant you to be angry. The president has been very keen on balancing his cabinet in terms of ethnicity and religion because these are the main factors that have bedeviled our political landscape.
You are a president, you are from the west, you are an Anglican; somehow the president has been making sure that the one who becomes vice president is from another region and religion. Even for prime ministers, Museveni has been careful about this balance. So when he brought Amama Mbabazi from the west and an Anglican, it means the president was giving [away] part of his presidency.
That is how I understood it. When Museveni insisted in the NRM caucus that he wanted to appoint Mbabazi as prime minister, there was resistance. But Museveni insisted and I thought he was saying to him: ‘you man, I promised that you will be my successor but given the circumstances, it looks like this project will not work.’ So, he was telling him that being a prime minister was also big because Mbabazi would be in charge of the entire government business.
To put this matter into context for our readers, as someone who worked with Mbabazi in cabinet, how powerful was he?
In fact, for me I thought at one time Mbabazi was an alternate president. Mbabazi’s stature as prime minister, you cannot compare him with other prime ministers. He had his own press unit, like the president. Mbabazi appointed ministers and the president would just appoint a few senior historical members.
Besides the president, there is nobody other than Gen Salim Saleh and probably now the first lady, Janet, in the history of NRM who had ever wielded power like Mbabazi did.
Not even the first son, Muhoozi, has the power Mbabazi had. For Janet, after the 2006 elections, she began wielding a lot of power. Now she had capacity to mobilize the political class, both within the party and outside. Mbabazi was very powerful, especially when he became secretary general of the party. He was the overall administrator of the entire party.
There was talk that Mbabazi, through his wife [Jacqueline], then started mobilizing against Museveni.
Jacqueline and Hope Mwesigye started mobilizing [for Mbabazi] after they noticed that Museveni, having appointed Mbabazi as prime minister, was actually trying to get rid of him.
Why then did Mbabazi feign ignorance about his wife’s activities?
Let me ask you: are you married? I have been married for 22 years. There are certain things you will never understand about a woman. You will ask her a question and the answer she gives you; you will not ask another question. Whether he was aware or not aware, I think these two had already made up their mind to mobilize for him.
You have written somewhere that, in fact, Janet Museveni, not Muhoozi, could now succeed Museveni as president. What is the basis for this belief?
Museveni thinks 10 years ahead of everybody. He does not like predictability. You are going to be there speculating about a cabinet reshuffle, but at a time you least expect it, that is when it comes.
In 2007, I wrote an article for New Vision replying an earlier one written by Chris Magezi of SFC [Special Forces Command]. Magezi was refuting a rumour that Muhoozi was being groomed for the presidency. So, I wrote an article disagreeing with Magezi. I said Uganda must be prepared for any eventuality, even a Muhoozi presidency.
I wrote that Muhoozi had been fast- tracked through the military. I was telling Chris [Magezi], let the country be prepared for a Muhoozi presidency.That was my calculation at that time, in 2007, but the article did not come out. Someone at New Vision told me they could not publish it because it was based on speculation.
Now to Janet Museveni. In 2006, Janet contested for Ruhaama county. At this time I did not realize there was something unusual. I thought maybe she is tired of begging for resources. She wanted to occupy an office that guaranteed her a salary, or maybe she wanted her contribution to the country to be visible. Two years later, she was appointed minister of state for Karamoja.
Then around this time, she published a book about her life. It is this book that convinced me about her intentions, especially when she decided in 2016 to again give up her Ruhaama seat when everyone was telling her to stay. People of Ntungamo did not want Janet to leave.
She was their godparent. But when the NRM structures were being formed, she stood for NRM chairperson for Ntungamo. Stephen Tashobya was chairman and she insisted that he becomes her vice. So, she was withdrawing from national politics and at the same time seeking leadership at the local level.
Still, this to me does not explain why you say she is scheming for the top job.
You see there is a process. She can start as chairperson of NRM in Ntungamo and one morning she will be the national chairman of NRM. When you read her book, I begin analyzing certain statements (Ahabwe quotes part of President Museveni’s foreword in Janet’s book: “Her performance in politics has been very good. She has exceeded in uniting the people in the area who were previously divided. She is continuing to grow in this field and I am convinced she will succeed with her same grace she has exhibited in other areas of her life”).
Ahabwe quotes another sentence: “I see a prophetic vision in my spirit and I know it will surely come to pass.”
When you are interpreting certain things, you must have a context in mind. The president says: “she has succeeded” and “she is continuing to grow.”
So, where does this put Muhoozi?
Muhoozi is still in the queue but there has been a lot of apprehension, talk against Muhoozi. If you must control this anger, you must divert it.
People in NRM or opposition will also raise similar questions if Janet is chosen NRM chairperson. They will say she was favoured, she is from the west, etc…
By the time this happens, people won’t have time to debate it. Before you know it, she will be seeking leadership of the party. How did Mbabazi become secretary general ahead of Dr Crispus Kiyonga who was the former NPC [National Political Commissar]?
The president simply made Mbabazi the convener of the 2005 delegates’ conference. He simply said as chairman of NRM he had delegated Mbabazi to oversee the organisation of the conference. Mbabazi used this as a chance to influence party structures.
[Odrek] Rwabwogo [president’s son-in-law] tried to stand as NRM vice chairman for western Uganda and there was a backlash from historicals; won’t this happen to Janet?
I talked to Matayo Kyaligonza and he said he did not have any problem with Rabwogo standing but he was saying that he [Rabwogo] had been endorsed by the first family.
Now, this caught fire and he had to be withdrawn. But you have to know this happened at the time the father-in-law (Museveni) was still interested in the presidency. As for Janet, Museveni will have withdrawn his interest. Yes, there will be some voices here and there but it will be different.
Why would Janet be interested in the presidency?
For personal ambition. What is Robert Mugabe trying to organize in Zimbabwe; he is trying to pave way for his wife. [Jacob] Zuma said the other day that South Africa is now ready for a female president because his former wife is preparing to stand for the ANC presidency. You can see the trend.
So, is President Museveni out of the picture in 2021?
It is unlikely that Museveni will contest in 2021. Knowing what he passed through in 2016, it is unlikely that he will contest. I don’t see him [amending] the constitution. If he amends it, it will be his last resort. It will mean that these other loopholes are something he has failed to close.
By the way, Janet’s presidency will only be transitional, only five years and the son will occupy the seat. By the time the son takes over, he will have already cultivated his relationship with the young generation and political leaders. Museveni is a character who will never accept someone he led, especially of the same generation, to lead him. He can’t.
But he can accept his son and wife?
Even these recent ones can lead because they don’t know him, but the [Prime Minister Ruhakana] Rugunda generation, no way. It is really an interesting scenario and for me I am trying to predict. It might not happen. Secondly, the president does not want power to get out of his family.
What happens to the generals and historicals?
This is a big worry [for Museveni]. Majority of them are now between the ages of 58 and 65. I have a big worry. Gen David Sejusa had started mobilizing the veterans and before long, they were integrated into Operation Wealth Creation.
In my view, this is not in good faith. President Museveni is in a dilemma because you cannot appoint everybody a minister, [for] some of these people he will have to create structures so that they have access to resources.
ekiggundu@observer.ug