Uganda’s economy is about to be tested by its biggest opportunity in a generation.
With commercial oil production approaching and coffee exports at record highs, the country’s growth story is shifting from promise to delivery.
Speaking at an Equity Bank Uganda trade and investment webinar on Wednesday, economist Stella Otieno laid out the numbers behind the optimism: growth above six per cent for three straight financial years, inflation under four per cent, and a Central Bank Rate that has sat unchanged at 9.75 per cent since October 2024.
“Growth has been above six per cent for the previous three years. Inflation has been stable and under four per cent within the target, and we also have stable policy rates,” Otieno said.
The session was held ahead of Equity Bank’s third Trade Mission in Uganda, running September 13 to 16 in Kampala, which will bring global, regional and local investors together around agriculture, coffee, extractives, manufacturing, services and tourism.
The oil catalyst
Real GDP growth hit roughly six per cent in the 2025/26 financial year, Otieno said, with inflation at four per cent in July, below the medium-term target of five per cent. Foreign exchange reserves have more than doubled, climbing from about $3.3 billion in January 2025 to $6.7 billion by June 2026.
That reserve build-up matters for a simple reason: it signals to investors that Uganda can weather currency shocks as oil-related capital flows increase. Otieno projects growth could accelerate to eight or ten per cent in 2026/27 once oil production begins, potentially Uganda’s first double-digit year.
The fiscal picture is less clean: the deficit stood at an estimated 7.1 per cent of GDP at the end of 2025/26, and the current account deficit sits at 6.5 per cent, driven largely by oil- and infrastructure-related imports. Otieno expects both to ease once oil revenues and export earnings start flowing in 2026/27.
Coffee’s moment
Oil isn’t the only story. Uganda became Africa’s largest coffee exporter in 2025, and coffee export earnings hit $2.2 billion in the twelve months to June 2026, putting it alongside gold as one of the country’s top two foreign exchange earners.
The opportunity, Otieno said, no longer stops at the farm gate. Processing, logistics and export infrastructure all represent unclaimed value in a chain that has historically shipped Uganda’s coffee out raw.
What investors actually need
Strong indicators alone don’t close deals, according to Catherine Psomgen, Director of Public Sector and Social Investments at Equity Bank. Investors also need reliable information, supportive policy, financing and local partners who understand what they’re trying to build.
“At Equity Bank, we see our role as extending beyond traditional banking,” Psomgen said, describing the bank’s role as connecting investors to finance, markets, technology and strategic relationships across Equity Group’s footprint in multiple African markets, positioning Uganda as a gateway into the wider East and Central African region.
Rita Nabateregga, Deputy Director for Investment Promotion at the Uganda Investment Authority, said the country is entering a phase where the question is no longer what resources it has, but what businesses can be built around them: agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, logistics, energy, minerals, infrastructure, tourism, services and technology all in the mix.
The harder task, she said, is converting that investment into jobs and enterprises that outlast the initial capital inflow.
Equity Bank’s read on the moment: Uganda’s growth story has moved past projections. What happens next depends on how well capital, technology and partnerships get deployed, turning resources and a growing market into businesses that last.
