There is that picture at Kololo Airstrip where a clearly forlorn [former] Speaker of Parliament, Hon. Anita Among is captured ingratiating herself to a clearly disinterested soldier, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
It had to go viral. In that moment, Anita Among, eager to retain her position as speaker, was pleading not just with the CDF or privileged son of the president, but was infront of the new oracle in town.
Museveni’s son had not only stolen the show with his choice of uniform – he looked quite sharp and kempt – but also seemed like Museveni had sworn in on behalf of his son. Yes, AAA would have ignored this son’s vitriolic tweets about her new automobile, but not this time.
With her husband equally forlorn and cowed just behind her, an online commentator wondered why they were still on their feet, and not their knees. If there is anything to take from that moment – among many others since May 12 – it is that the Rwakitura Kingdom that journalist Andrew Mwenda predicted more than 15 years ago is here with us.
It is not just a possibility, but a reality unfolding before our eyes. What is undeniable is that (a) opposition forces cannot stop this kingdom from taking shape: The reigning king, His Royal Highness Yoweri Museveni organises and wins his elections.
Museveni appoints his judiciary. There will be no public protests. Museveni has more money and has mastered strangling opposition units of any revenue. He can be more violent when he chooses to and there aren’t any repercussions because he is bosom friends with foreign power and foreign capital (who might proffer sanctions in the event of abuse).
What is also undeniable is that (b) the prince and heir-apparent is already calling the shots. Considering that opposition forces have been thoroughly emasculated, this is clearly his time as his father slowly but steadily bows to the ruins of time.
Thus, for me, I think as country, it is about time we opened the discussion on Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba – not just the possibility of becoming president, but one who has already assumed co-presidency.
I will say one more time, unless something magical happens – like a revolution from nowhere – no one is prepared enough to stop his accession (except of course, his father, who, despite subjecting him to a grueling long wait, has no choice but to succumb to the vicissitudes of time).
MUHOOZI’S MOMENT
Let me begin this way: If we are looking at a peaceful transition – not a violent one – it will not be electoral, but hereditary.
Not even internal to NRM, but Museveni’s family – and Museveni is lucky to have a candidate: Gen. Kainerugaba. Time and circumstance have pushed us in this position and we reached a point of no return.
Under the auspices of his father, MK has accumulated an immense amount of power both as soldier, CDF and power broker. This is a dream place to be. Relatedly, his father, over the forty-year period has entered many commitments with super powerful individuals, institutions, and multinationals extracting Ugandan resources on the cheap.
These are both financially, and militarily powerful. They will stop at nothing to ensure that the new president has to be a familiar face. This person has to be capable of enabling them continuity or in the worst-case, allow them time to move their wealth elsewhere.
They cannot accept someone whose politics is diametrically opposed to Museveni, who might decide to jail them or put an immediate stop to their looting or even freeze their wealth.
They’ll fight blood and tears to make sure this never happens. Because they can. There are plenty of examples: In Egypt after the Arab spring, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammad Morsi, whose party and politics was the diametric opposite of Hosni Mubarak won a democratic election.
This threw former Mubarak associates – especially in the western world – in absolute disarray. They let him rule for just one year before overthrowing him in a coup. They ensured a man who had been aligned with Mubarak took the presidency.
That man is still president. Meanwhile, Mohamad Morsi would be jailed and later killed. Sudan is undergoing genocide because western corporations/powers feared a repeat of Egypt with a nationalist or Muslim Brotherhood candidate winning an election if organised just after a two-year transition.
The point I am making is that this is Muhoozi’s moment. He is not the only powerful person presently, but also has been doing things with his father, which makes him likeable by local and international associates.
Notice, therefore, that while he is not a preferred candidate, but by being the symbol of continuity of his father’s reign/crimes – despite major differences as I will show below – he is good for Uganda’s stability.
You don’t get to go the direction of Egypt or Sudan. Again, this is not because of what he would personally do, but because many self-interested groups would not like sudden disruption of their interests.
MORE BRUTAL THAN FATHER?
Dear reader, I don’t like this state of events either, but I am simply cognizant of the stakes. But we can chasten ourselves with the thought that President Kainerugaba is the transitional guy.
No, there will be no more 40 years. Not only is he starting late (maybe 53 – ten years late), but the ground has diametrically shifted. But at the risk of sounding like his supporter, a part of me believes the son will govern better than the old man.
This is not because of some special genius, but because of (a) his age, which imposes upon him an understanding of the modern world of Wi-Fi, apps, cryptocurrency, and a leaner government.
Isn’t his social media footprint telling enough? Secondly, like his father, Muhoozi will have to govern with his contemporaries, who again, because of their ages, are more progressive. Consider, Andrew Mwenda as Prime Minister, Allan Kasuja as Minister for ICT.
I see NBS’ Kin Karisa coming in as Minister of Information. There are things these middle-aged Ugandans would love to see in their country given the chance at decision-making.
Look, I don’t know all of Kainerugaba’s friends, but I am confident Nabbanja, Kasaija, Kadaga, Nankabirwa, J. Odongo, K. Otafiire, Moses Ali, among others, will not be part of his cabinet.
There is no doubt that a core component of our problems is the disconnect old hands with power have with the new world. It has been said that the son might be more brutal than his father.
Again, for reasons beyond Muhoozi Kainerugaba, even if he so wanted, he has very little room for autocracy. These are different times. These are times of Wi-Fi and cheap Chinese smartphones, perhaps the most consequential invention of the 21st century.
A combination of Internet and Smartphones has led to the downfall of Israel’s grand narrative in the Middle East. The times when autocrats committed crimes in absolute darkness is behind us.
The times when autocrats did their thing without their subjects talking back is gone. This time, even when an autocrat chooses not to listen, the noise is simply unstoppable.
The point I am making is this: There is a transition quietly creeping in on us, and perhaps it is about time we faced it early enough. While we might concede to their ascension, we are closely watching.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
I highly doubt if Muhoozi has what it takes to be a president of Uganda. He lacks qualities of a good leader; not stable for a diverse, young democratic and complicated country like Uganda. He has no mechanism for diffusing tension even after exposure on a silver plate. When Kaguta takes his final breath which is around the corner, Muhoozi’s downfall will come from within; family, army, government, Western Uganda. That’s why you see Sevo and Muhoozi leaning towards the Eastern region because of Etesot and Kumum fighters, Busoga geographical location. If you have ever watched the movie “Titanic”. This is Uganda’s love story for Bobi vs Muhoozi. You need to weigh the I.Q and common sense of both Bobi and Muhoozi then you can determine the next president of Uganda.
But Dr., Dr. Yusuf, in what sense are Ugandans suppose to FACE our Certified Self-confessed and Lawless STANDBY PROBLEM (generator) OF AFRICA/Uganda, the unruly son of our current 86-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa?
In other words, like Gen father like Gen son; now that MK has demonstrated his true color: lawlessness, gross indiscipline as the CDF, speaks the language of a despot/autocrat, busybody, violence, etc., etc. should Ugandans face him off, or become submissive to bloody tyrant?
Dear Lakwena , lets face the elephant : Mw.Yusuf Sserunkuma has joined the Project. There is no question about that anymore.
I am one who believes that people own the right to change their minds . I therefore wish the gentleman a lot of luck.
But , what I find annoying and objectionable is the deception . Many of us who follow Mr. Sserunkuma`s writings are not dump. Some of us are just as intellectually polished as he is ( if not even more)
We are , therefore , quite capable of spotting his deceptive statements and contradictions etc
Just two examples .
1- YSK writes that “.he ( MK) has been doing a lot of things with his father , which makes him likeable by local and international associates ”
HELL NO ! This is a horrible mis presentation of a man that is know for annoying everyone and causing tension all around . There is a good reason why MK has not stepped out of Africa for the last 5 years .
2- YSK says MK`s age imposes him with a very good understanding of Wi-fi , apps and cryplocurrency and a leaner government
I am sorry , but this absolute nonsense. Even a child knows that MK has been and is a habitual abuser of modern communication space . Evidence is everywhere to show that he a vicious bully who has social intelligence deficiency .
I mean , when you see a man who has a wife and adult daughters happily displaying a video in which someone`s wife , someone`s Mum , someone`s daughter was filmed while she was laying half naked on the floor and he writes ” WE CAPRURED her “.. you`ve got to be out of your zone to even dream that such a person should be the next Supreme Leader.
Finally , Mw . Sserunkuma gives us yet another doze of deception :
after Mw.Sserunkuma has convinced himself and tried to convince Uganda that MK is the new fresh air that the next Uganda should embrace , he the says : I don`t like this state of events, but blah ….
Yusuf is a Muslim man . , he knows what the Holy Koran commands you to do when you notice that something is wrong , evil or offensive .in this case , a state of events that you do not like .
You DO NOT promote or JUSTIFY something you do not like ; if you cannot eliminate it , you at least shun , condemn or speak against it .
In other words Betty , like father like son: at that social status and/or professional level, who in his/her right state mind can deny that; as the STANDBY PROBLEM OF UGANDA, MK is but, a national EMBARRASING BUFOON, not worth an iota of a praise, identify NOR work for/with?
Remember sometime back in 2014, the buffoonery by which his father, our 86-years-old ROBLEM OF AFRICA displayed himself while en-route to his country home in Rwakitura: Full of himself like an imperial former colonial Governor, the guy suddenly stopped his 40-vehicle convoy motorcade, got out and sat on the roadside on his eccentric folding colonial picnic seat, and started a middle of nowhere telecom technological show-off conversation with someone, probably back in Kampala (not sure).
A disgrace! I could imagine: suppose the bodyguards and the entire motorcade drove off, living him on the roadside? The guy would have been petrified.
Doc, in my view, it is entirely irrelevant whether it is time to face Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The plain truth is that Uganda is trapped under total state capture by Yoweri Museveni’s family, with absolutely no hope for recovery. Ever since Museveni entered politics, his singular objective has been the outright family ownership of Uganda.
His history of destabilisation dates back to independence in 1962. From working under his mentor Milton Obote in the UPC to orchestrating the downfall of Idi Amin and Prof. Y.K. Lule, Museveni has used conflict as a stepping stone. Let us not forget that as a member of the Military Commission, he ordered the killing of Makerere University students protesting Lule’s removal under the banner ‘Ffe twagala Lule, oba tufa tufe.’ He knew Obote would win the rigged 1980 elections, using it as a premeditated excuse to go to the Luwero bush and seize power in 1986. His wars were never about liberating Uganda; they were about capturing it.
Today, all three branches of government are firmly in his grip, answering directly to him and family members like Janet Museveni, Gen. Muhoozi, Salim Saleh, and Odrek Rwabogo. We are trapped under a militarized family autocracy where militants occupy every state institution, including parliament.
Because the family completely owns the state, Muhoozi already enjoys presidential immunity and privileges. He can serve as CDF, order the arbitrary arrest and torture of citizens [in his basement and teach them Lunyankole] with absolute impunity, and then hypocritically direct corruption investigations into figures like Anita Among. Meanwhile, the family treats national resources as personal property: Natasha uses the presidential jet to give birth in Germany because our local hospitals are ruined, and Janet moved from drawing cash demands from the NSSF to controlling the heavily funded Ministry of Education. Whether Muhoozi takes the official title of president or not is meaningless—the Museveni family already owns Uganda.
Fellow Ugandan, the point I’m trying to make is, debating whether it is time to face Muhoozi Kainerugaba misses the broader crisis: Uganda is under absolute family rule and military occupation, leaving no path for recovery. Since 1962, Museveni’s political career has been defined by destabilization—from his early days with Milton Obote to the armed rebellions that overthrew Idi Amin and Prof. Y.K. Lule. The historical record shows his march to power, including the brutal suppression of Makerere students and the 1980 bush war, was designed for state capture, not democratic reform.
Since 1986, the executive, judiciary, and legislature have been completely subordinated to Museveni and his immediate relatives, including Janet, Gen. Muhoozi, Salim Saleh, and Odrek Rwabogo. This is an entrenched militant autocracy. Consequently, Muhoozi’s official title is irrelevant; he already wields absolute presidential power, commanding the military, ordering arbitrary detentions, and weaponizing corruption probes against political rivals with total impunity to gain political capital.
The collapse of our institutions is evident in how national resources are distributed. The education and security budgets are treated as family allocations, while basic infrastructure has collapsed to the point that the first family bypasses local hospitals entirely. The Museveni dynasty already holds an iron grip on Uganda; a formal transition to Muhoozi changes nothing about who owns the state.
Mukulu Remase , you make good points by correctly naming facts and by making reference to our unfortunate countries history.
Sadly , when people change , the first thing they throw in the dust bin is history, and the truth . This where Doc is at .
Right now , we have people who told us they would stand in front of a speeding train to save their Queen : Nalongo Anita Among . Today , almost all of them have found a way to separate themselves from the words they said 10 days ago. They have found a new one: OMO !
Of course Doc knows all these things you are trying to remind him of. He won`t hear them because he is has moved on and is here preparing his readers for the ” good news ” by Chief Kabanda.
Not long ago , Doc gave us one article in which he covered his trip to prison to pay a visit to Hon Muwanga Kivumbi and other political prisoners . Doc is surely aware that 10 innocent young Ugandans were brutally murdered inside of Muwanga Kivumbi`s house . Doc knows who ordered that massacre . Doc knows what his next president wrote on X about the jailed Eddie Mutwe . Still , Doc does not see any “violence” . So he writes that the only way to avoid a violent transition and to ensure what he calls “continuity” is by allowing The Father to be replaced by the transitional guy . The Son .
The point Doc is making ( his favorite line) is that he has either not seen any violence or he has no problems if it continues ( continuity) To him , it matters less what else he has been saying for the last how many years His present rubs away all his past .
We would be amazed if we have not such deceptive people before.
@ serunkuma “A combination of Internet and Smartphones has led to the downfall of Israel’s grand narrative in the Middle East. The times when autocrats committed crimes in absolute darkness is behind us.The times when autocrats did their thing without their subjects talking back is gone. This time, even when an autocrat chooses not to listen, the noise is simply unstoppable” I respectfully disagree. Trump is a semi autocratic ruler in the US with all its technological development, so are many other leaders around the world-russia, china , Rwanda and Uganda currently etc. It is one thing to talk, talk and talk and expose autocracy , and another to defeat and get ridof autocrats. Only difference may be , and it should our prayers , to have an enligthened dictator who puts development of the country and its people first –a kagame kind of dictator is far beter than a democrat who atiffles development but alowa citizens to criticise him/her
Yusuf, I like the fact that you’re finally reading the political tea leaves the same way the rest of us have been sipping them for years. What you call speculation has slowly matured into confirmation. At this point, even the drumbeat is no longer subtle — Muhoozi has clearly been groomed as the heir apparent. His online and offline theatrics have not exactly been the behaviour of a man preparing for retirement in the village.
I also find your shift in tone interesting regarding what his stewardship may look like compared to his ageing father’s. That sentiment mirrors what many ordinary Ugandans quietly whisper between lowering their voices and checking who is listening nearby. His intolerance toward corruption, at least by reputation, has been spoken about long before the AAA saga came knocking on doors at ungodly hours.
But since you are one of our resident prolific thinkers, don’t leave us hanging at the philosophical bus stop. Tell us plainly: should citizens now practise obedience, strategic silence, or the ancient African art of nodding while surviving? Because from where many sit, the script appears already written — we are merely waiting to discover whether we are actors, audience, or unpaid extras.
It’s already president KaMuhoozi, fools.
I also anticipate the same. Despite the fact that muhoozi may ascend,he will have a short life span. Anyway our destiny is shaped by the reflections from the past.
The fact that the 400-year old Bourbon monarchy also collapsed is a vivid evidence that every dark cloud has a silver lining