Sometimes, victory is in conceding defeat.
This does not mean sitting back, but rather not seeking a different strategy to return to the same fight, but simply seeking a different fight. Maybe we are fighting the wrong fight! The truth is the opposition (whatever this means) went into the 2026 general election thoroughly emasculated.
Weaker than ever before. But this was not because of their own making, but the chains around them. They have operated under an autocratic system which does not allow them to exist and organise as useful political actors.
The irony is that the opposition ignores all these red signs and decide to walk into an election. Museveni’s adversaries underestimate the limitations he imposes on and around them throughout the entire five-year cycle, and then turn around and over- estimate their talents and mobilizational capacity.
However talented, one cannot win a marathon without thorough training and preparation. The truth is Museveni won. Not the elections. He has never looked for votes. But managed to control and dictate the nature of the electoral season imposed on him by the neoliberal modernity.
Yes, the modern life-president has to organise an election. He must. (He also has to have a parliament, a supposed free press, etc.). Otherwise, he cannot belong to the neoliberal world of borrowing and credit.
But in organising this election – which is meant to please the global moneylenders – he has to make sure he controls the tempo, the energy, all contingency to the point his opponents don’t drag him into uncontrollable madness. using overwhelming force on his opponents will have the moneylenders turn against him.
They’ll come chanting Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and will be done with him. While these moneylenders don’t really care about human rights, they’ll not miss the occasion to pretend to care. To Museveni’s credit – especially as far as this democratic circus is concerned – he did commendably well in “finishing off the opposition,” and silencing critical voices.
This is not only through directly throwing them behind bars (Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, Obeid Lutale, Dr Sarah Bireete, Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro, Eddie Mutwe and many supporters of the NUP), but also indirectly, covertly sabotaging them.
With especially money in his arsenal, Museveni has used his access to the national treasury to his utmost advantage. Either through the annual Shs5b given to all political parties through the Interparty organisation for Dialogue, or the Shs500m to commissioners and Leader of Opposition, and the humongous bribes and perks to legislators, Museveni has cleared his path towards life presidency.
COUNTING OUR LOSSES The point I’m making is this: it is high time we conceded defeat. Surely, if all previous electoral gambles have been an effort towards a transition from Museveni to someone else, it is my contention that a transition will have to be acquired through a different approach.
Not through force or competition. But a negotiated exit. Let me explain this a little more. What has become real is that Museveni has proven difficult to beat through electoral competition.
We have tried this seven times. (I was slow, but stopped voting in 2016). He will not be defeated through street protests either as he has taken lesson from other places (Libya, Sudan, Senegal, Egypt, Tunisia), and covered his tracks. Dr Kizza Besigye tried street protests several times.
It is unlikely a coup is being organised soon. Nor are the warlords in the United States coming to pluck him out of state house in the dead of the night. He has made sure he is their most committed caretaker.
Dear reader, please don’t read this as capitulation. It is not at all. But rather counting my losses early and focusing on more important fights ahead. Look, the entire country – including people calling themselves the “standby generator” – is resigned to their condition and simply looking forward to Museveni’s death. Death appears as the only adversary this man cannot escape.
I do not wish Museveni sudden death. Not because I love him, but because he is, sadly, ironically, the only centre of power left to hold the country together. Too bad for Uganda, Museveni has bred and fattened so many hungry hyenas and hounds around.
While all these are feasting on the country, only one man can call them to order when they overstretch their fangs: Museveni. Sadly, Museveni has not nurtured any other master these hounds can listen to.
Yet, he has become so exhausted, old and sickly. Even when he has so immensely privileged his son, he seems not to trust him enough. (Otherwise, why not give him the presidency?) With his sudden death, all of these meat-eating vultures, without a master to stop them, will be out of the woods angrily and violently going at each other.
This will not only hurt these hounds, but they’ll definitely go down with the entire country. We’ll be the next country in flames after Sudan. Thus, it is imperative for Museveni to create another centre of power, another hound-master while he still can.
A NEGOTIATED EXIT
In this concession speech, I’m seeking to create a movement towards a negotiated exit. Painfully, we’ll have to give Museveni his flowers for successfully defeating all opposition forces – blocking all windows of protest, but also keeping a tight embrace with his international backers.
But then, we have to impress it upon him that he is not immortal. He is old, and old age has no cure. We will also have to impress it upon his friends and kindred (plus all his hounds, and hyenas) that the sudden disappearance of their master risks them losing all their accumulation.
Against this, Museveni’s friends, kindred (and hounds alike) will have to join efforts offering Museveni a negotiated exit. If we cannot fight him, perhaps maybe talk to him. To be continued.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.