In truth, any govt after Museveni has to run a movement system

If comrade brother Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu wins the 2026 election, he will have to govern through a movement system.

I know that sounds ironic. But let me say this more accurately: if the Electoral Commission is bold enough to declare anyone else other than Yoweri Museveni as winner in the upcoming general elections, the next government will be a movement government.

I know, my friends in the National Unity Platform and their ‘foot-soldiers’ might not like to hear this, but this isn’t about NUP at all. Nor is it about the opposition. This is about any government after Museveni – 2026 or later.

Dear reader, this is not even about the fact that not a single political party in Uganda is so stacked with talent sufficient enough to run the country alone. Rather, this is (a) the fact of life under political transitions, and (b) the aspiration of many small countries; they have no choice but to seek to deploy the best from amongst them – which often means, the most educated, experienced and most talented.

They have to build a strong and more permanent bureaucracy. I have noted elsewhere that the so-called winner-takes-all approach in electoral politics is actually a colonialist trap: it is a reproduction of divide and rule.

As an idea, the movement sought to harness the best of Uganda’s human resource without any divisions (tribal, political, religious or otherwise) and drive the country forward. The movement posture – Omugendo in many Bantu languages – cuts a simply technical, knowledge-driven methodology.

With the goodwill that Museveni enjoyed (1986- 1996), had he been a genuine and selfless fellow, and stuck to merit and expertise, Uganda would be a powerhouse. It would have been like a return to the immediate post-colonial period when countries were presented with opportunities to mobilise and exploit all their human resource and talents and grow the country.

Instead, Museveni sought to bring all people together to weaken their other associations. No wonder, upon realising they had been weakened enough, he resorted to Tubejeko politics – ‘Let them go.’ Multi-party politics only meant sidelining a lot of wonderful talents and sharpening divisions among a small well- educated human resource.

REPRODUCING MUSEVENI?

Suggesting that comrade Kyagulanyi runs a movement after defeating the man who introduced the movement not only sounds like reproducing Museveni’s politics but it also sounds like rolling out a red carpet for currently “dislikeable” individuals such as Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda, Asuman Basalirwa, and Medard Sseggona, among others.

But these aren’t really the ‘worst’ a new Kyagulanyi government (KG) will have to work with. Not simply to collapse on its head, the KG will actually have to sustain Museveni’s public service – almost all of them, from financial officers, diplomats, police force, UPDF (oh, the UPDF); judicial clerks, the loathsome folks inside Uganda Revenue Authority folks, etcetera.

The difference will be – and this is a core factor – they will be now under new management and running on a different ethic. It is like football. Watchers of European football know that the same players under a different system and manager can actually win the Champions league.

Of course, the manager brings in new players, but the majority of those players are the ones they would have found at the club. Consider the technical team, ground staff, gym management and others. These are the bureaucracy/technocrats that often remain unchanged.

WHEN THEY HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE

While I think this position is more agreeable to presidential contenders such as Gen Mugisha Muntu, I have become sceptical about my friends in the NUP who actually stand a much better chance of running the next government.

One can read from the vitriol against former comrades, Asumani Basalirwa, Medard Sseggona and others, and their uncritical embrace of Museveni’s anti-intellectual language and politics that they seem to be hesitant about this reality.

We cannot criticize Museveni for deploying “fishmen and women” [his words] in key government positions but at the same time abuse educational competence and good English as elitist nonsense!

Brother Lewis Rubongoya, with two masters’ degrees, will not deploy a senior six graduate foot-soldier as the permanent secretary at a ministry. Because senior six is in the legal requirement for political office?

Instead, a foot-soldier actually expects NUP leadership to select from the best from among them and create the environment for them to thrive in their different fields. I am not sure the foot- soldiers’ struggle is for them to occupy those leadership positions.

It is like when a football team is struggling, angry fans would be itching for an opportunity to put that on the pitch. While it is undeniable that there are many irredeemable supporters of the status quo, it is more tactical to cut a more corrective (not just collective) posture than a disciplinarian one.

While they are still in charge of core government assets and units, these die-hards need more assurances of correctional politics than disciplinary action. They might burn down entire offices down if their man is announced loser – because this might mean life or death for them.

These are the folks who quickly turn to violence. With plenty of access to critical infrastructure, state documents and secrets, they need not to feel terminally threatened. But what do I know about these things except my elitist posturing?

As a reader of political movements, I see our country at a critical moment. Brother Yoweri Museveni does not have ten more years. In fact, the slogan, which he, too, has started chanting, is “any time from now.”

But with all key institutions dead or fully personalised, we will have to rely on the goodness of individuals occupying those key positions.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.