That we expected this election to be violent from the very beginning – and are shocked nothing outstanding has yet happened – is telling enough: Our so-called democracy is simply regimes of violence and poorly-choreographed pretensions.
Indeed, the entire country understands (as does NRM-Museveni team) that the incumbent does not win because of the superiority of his manifesto or country-wide campaigns. But rather, in addition to controlling the Electoral Commission, they also control the cash vault, and the tools of violence.
Slightly over a month in – of the three months of campaigns – and no major episode of violence, the entire country seems shocked at what appears like a peaceful election thus far. In all honesty, it is too early to celebrate.
The election is yet to come. Notice also that previous elections – which have made us anticipate even more large-scale violence – are never violent throughout the entire electoral season.
But one or two moments of violence shake us to the core, and become definitive of an entire season. So, as they say in football terms, “it is not over until it is over.” We need to run their entire stretch of 90 minutes – but also watch closely the days after the election.
Sometimes, the hottest blows are exchanged after the final whistle. But before the final whistle is blown, we need to remember that the incumbent, Gen. Yoweri Museveni is never afraid of this fairly emasculated opposition as long as they are looking for votes.
He is rather afraid of the season and the excitement, inspirations and anxieties that come with it. Museveni understands that the entire country agrees that elections under him are nothing but a circus.
A thing he has to go through because it is norm. To this end, his major fear is what more could his opponents – especially the leading opposition figure, Hon. Robert Kyagulanyi – get tempted to ask of their crowds beyond votes.
It is not even that Kyagulanyi is planning to ask for anything more than votes. But that his crowds, in one single moment of euphoria, could force him to abandon the campaign trail and simply seek to take the presidency.
This is Museveni’s utmost worry. Notice that this cannot happen with Kyagulanyi, who is 100km-300km away from the seat of government. It can only happen when he is in a radius of 50km or less, from, specifically, Radio Uganda, Nakasero State House, and Parliament.
To this end, it is my sobering contention that this election is determined by what happens with Bobi Wine’s Central Uganda/Buganda schedule.
WHY ONLY THE CENTRAL MATTERS
In old political science, the revolutionary was expected to connect the rural and urban areas for a revolution to happen. But this was political science theorizing in the 1970s and 1980s where to be a revolutionary actually meant picking up arms and going to the bush.
To this end, the revolutionary had to connect with the countrysides as rural folks provided both the core foot-soldiers in addition to hiding the rebels in the course of the war. This is Museveni three-one-one.
Thus, the rural folks had to be convinced about the war itself – and find themselves connected to the urban elite. Notice also that then, production of wealth organized around cooperative societies where farmers – of coffee, cotton, tea, sugarcane – had direct connections with the urban elite who also thrived from the same chain of production.
In this respect, the revolutionary had to be directly connected to the peasant farmers. This era ended. This connection is broken.
The neoliberal capitalist modernity killed these cooperatives to the point that most of urban Africa, especially in Kampala, feels fairly disconnected from the countryside despite living and thriving in the same polity.
The peasant farmer nowadays sees the urban dweller as foreigners. We are all thriving on different things. Despite connections with especially food supplies, the rural and urban folks are not connected.
The rural folks make their living through selling supplies to urban folks, and urban folks make their money from non-rural related things. See, while the richest of the 1970s and 1980s derived their wealth from working with the peasants – in coffee, tea and cotton, among others – the so- called rich of nowadays are engaged in dealerships with the foreign capital.
They are commissioning agents. They are cutting deals with corporations and have conspired with the foreign capital to simply exploit their rural compatriots. (In truth, they are not really rich so to speak).
The point I am making here is that the urban folk exist independent of the rural folks. The revolutionary thus does not need to connect rural and urban. Relatedly, the 2010s became the era of the supremacy of individual human rights.
If the Arab Spring was a gold standard, one only needs to organize the urban poor onto the streets of major capitals, and the government will find itself hard-pressed to sustain the façade of human rights.
President Yoweri Museveni’s worst fear is a situation where his team is forced to shoot and kill a thousand Ugandans marching to State House. To this end, he is ready to do all that in his power to make sure Bobi Wine’s campaigns, specifically in the central region, do not inspire any revolutionary dreams beyond simply seeking votes.
Thus, the dogs, the tear gas, the hooligans dressed in NUP colours (to legitimate more arrests) are all executed in a more controlled fashion not to result in a pushback.
FROM OVERWHELMING TO PIECEMEAL VIOLENCE
We might not see an overwhelming moment of violence (hopefully), but a series of low-key moments but core to the spirit of potential revolution.
What has happened is an overall transformation of violence from the overwhelming to piecemeal nature, almost clandestinely. When arrests happen, the entire team isn’t taken, but a select few.
When teargas is dispensed into crowds, they will tend to be controlled not to entirely scandalize the country. About three weeks ago, the number of ‘fresh arrests’ had reached 150. It must be over 200 by now.
These are not random arrests, but carefully-selected arrests of Bobi Wine’s inside staffers. The men and women who give Bobi Wine momentum and oomph are being picked and not returned: It started way before with the arrests of Eddie Mutwe, then Waiswa Mufumbiro, and many other little known but key Bobi Wine associates.
There is method to the arrests. The entire idea is to strip the leading opposition candidates – the potential revolutionary – of an electoral, revolutionary engine.
At the end of the day, Bobi Wine will find himself with a threadbare team, with the remainder all thoroughly frightened. All that will be left would be to lazily saunter to the finishing line.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
A bat that lives upside down will make an argument that it is humans that walk upside down . Because Dr. Yusuf Sserunkuma has pivoted himself to fall in line with the “mzeei tova ku main”fratanity and the MK Projectors , he thinks that its his duty to now push the narrative that the others( opposition) have changed . The only difference between him and other status quo groups lies in levels of sophism . While the others cut straight through the fat by primitive means like cash and loud sycophancy , smooth smiley Sserunkuma opts to go circumspect. That would be okay if the whole thing was not laced with cunning intellectual dishonesty.(I should say that telling by the number of his recruits who come in to chorus the end of the opposition circus , its working )
Still , I want us to consider this : Dr.Sserunkuma counts the number of those arrested. He names names and I am sure he saw women being undressed and beaten up . Better still , Dr.Yusuf remarks that these are not random arrests , meaning they are planned with the aim of weakening , isolating and demoralizing Bobi Wine. Some would prefer noticing that despite this , Bobi Wine is projecting energy , incredible focus and a sense of resilience that the public seems to respond to in record numbers.Those will not lament over the absence of violence , why ? because violence is right there to see if that is what you are looking for.
As I write this , somewhere in Buikwe , the scenery looks like something picked out of Congo`s M23 operations . Tear gas , live bullets , arrests , beatings etc , yet some one is shocked by the absence of violence?!!!
Well , the brother and his apostles have probably chosen a correct name for this : A CIRCUS .
It goes without saying that every circus comes to town with its own colourful clowns , for entertainment effect and a bit of deception . And when the tents are folded to move on , what is left is “what is”
I will belong to a small group of”what is”lookers that would not chose lack of violence as the talking point, cause I know what violence looks and smell like, it is here .
Under the smoke of tear gas , the whipping cables , the intimidation , I see lots of guts in this circus . I see a country that is ready and yearning for change. I also see the nonsense of “unopposed” trend as a disguised poison .
When I see 300 political prisoners , I see VIOLENCE .
Jes, the truth always hurts. You are among those who refuse to accept reality—specifically, the painful reality of a systemically compromised and violent electoral process in Uganda. Facing unpleasant truths is difficult when they conflict with a desired outcome or personal belief, but accepting reality is essential for meaningful progress. Living in denial offers no path forward.
The harsh reality remains: no opposition candidate will ever “win” an election designed for a single outcome. The outcome is predetermined for M7.
This is why “There is method to the arrests. The entire idea is to strip the leading opposition candidates – the potential revolutionary – of an electoral, revolutionary engine.” This strategy is not new. What, exactly, has Kyagulanyi done differently from Besigye in the grand scheme of challenging this system?
The double standard is blatant: M7, Nandala Mafabi, Mugisha Muntu and others campaign without facing tear gas, arrests, or violence against their supporters.
Jes, answer this: What is the functional difference between the 2021 and 2026 elections in terms of state violence against the primary opposition?
Over 3,000 innocent NUP supporters were arrested in November 2020, many allegedly still detained in torture facilities. Why is Kyagulanyi not leading a sustained protest to demand their immediate release, but instead is calling the 2026 cycle merely a “protest vote”?
The pattern is clear for all who choose to see it.
I refuse to believe that you are Dr.Yusuf Sserunkuma`s spokesman . The man has his own brain ; should he be of the opinion that only he is the messenger of “the truth” may he respond to what I wrote.
Jes, it is widely accepted that Uganda is experiencing a painful reality characterized by a systemically compromised and violent electoral process. Unfortunately, Bobi Wine (Kyagulanyi) seems to find amusement in this situation, attempting to reframe widespread discontent as a “protest vote,” despite this not being the first instance of alleged election rigging by Museveni.
Re-branding of the situation as a “protest vote” appears tone-deaf. Museveni has rigged each and every election before, making Kyagulanyi’s creative framing seem inappropriate given the severity of the crisis.
Jes, be truthful for once. You clearly know that Kyagulanyi is in it for money. You care[less] about repeated and continuous bogus and violent elections as long as you [NUP/Kyagulanyi} are making money!
Mr Wine has a serious Buganda problem.
Explain
In other words Jes, the SLOW POISON (courtesy of Prof. Mamdani) is also Hallucinating, the intellectuals.
Otherwise, according to what has started happening: from the Monday Kawempe North and South fracases and arrests, to the Wednesday Sezibwa Bridge, Nsotoka (Bugerere) and Bwikwe tear gas melee; seeing is believing. The cloud is gathering from the calm for the proverbial storm.
It was sad to see Hon Kyagulanyi and his enthused supporters choking on the merciless tear gassing by the Police.
But for Heaven and Hell’s sake: after 5 years without countrywide political campaign, this is just a 3-month season of a few hours, of a single day, transit event each for every constituency Campaign by every candidate. Therefore, why on earth harm and kill fellow countrymen, women and children, simply because you want to stop excited citizens from cheering up their favourite Presidential candidate?
This is a bewildering political intolerance barbarism in the 21st Century
Doc, “These are not random arrests, but carefully-selected arrests of Bobi Wine’s inside staffers. The men and women who give Bobi Wine momentum and oomph are being picked and not returned: It started way before with the arrests of Eddie Mutwe, then Waiswa Mufumbiro, and many other little known but key Bobi Wine associates.”
This systematic targeting, as Lubongoya asserted, was a deliberate attempt by the authorities to cripple the movement. However, Lubogoya maintained a resolute stance that Museveni could arrest anyone and everyone around Kyagulanyi, but Kyagulanyi’s campaign would not stop or halt. In other word, Kyagulanyi is not bothered by the arrests of his inside staffers. To Kyagulanyi and Lubongoya, it is all about money. They both clearly know that Kyagulanyi can’t win M7 in the election that is organized by M7.
Another biased piece from Yusuf, who is clearly not a fan of Bobi Wine. The argument that an urban uprising in Kampala is the only viable path is weak. Dictators have learned from the Arab Spring and are now fully prepared to counter such protests. We saw what happened in Uganda in 2020, in Nairobi in 2002, and in Tanzania recently — mercenaries and security forces will not hesitate to shoot anyone who attempts to riot in Kampala.
If any form of resistance is to succeed, it must draw momentum from across the entire country, especially in response to stolen elections. Without nationwide pressure, people will simply lose hope and allow Museveni to further entrench his family’s dynasty
Thanks Sebo !
There is a lot of deception here. Those who care to follow what people say , know that Dr.Yusuf`s Sserunkuma has changed from what he used to say to what he now says . Of late , he has been pushing the narrative whose only predictable aim is to weakenor confuse the opposition on one hand , and, on other hand ,to make it look like its up to Museveni to decide how the transition should be . In other words , Yusuf has taken the same position as some of Museveni`s confusing agents that are scattered all over the space . Some of them have designed a language that conceals there true intention . You will hear them saying stuff like : lets give the man ONLY FIVE more years so we do not provoke him into messing up the future . They make it sound like Museveni has become delicate charity case . Is he ?
This is how dishonesty works : someone will come in calling to a revolt against the armed dictatorship . In polished English , that someone may argue that holding rallies , however massive is just another way of helping Museveni to go claiming that this is a democracy .They challenge Kyagulanyi to abandon his rallies- a circus – and confront the trigger happy regime instead .
If you play back , you will find the same persons accusing the opposition ( NUP?) of recklessly sacrificing some of its supporters by exposing them via kunga & foot soldier activity. You do not even have to go very far to find someone blaming Kyagulanyi of not attacking prisons to free his jailed supporters . Interestingly , none of these chaps seems to remember that Dr.Besigye has been in prison for a year yet his supporters and associates have not gone there kicking in doors.
Jes, “he [Yusuf] has been pushing the narrative whose only predictable aim is to weaken or confuse the opposition on one hand, and, on other hand, to make it look like it’s up to Museveni to decide how the transition should be.” What isn’t true here? Isn’t the opposition weakened and confused? Or isn’t it true that M7 owns Uganda and the one to decides how the transition should be? An active militant, Muhoozi M7, has endorsed his father, M7, as a presidential candidate! The same Muhoozi M7 has made it abundantly clear that no civilian will ever rule Uganda again. The same Mushoozi M7 has made clear that he’ll behead Kyagulanyi! All this is on record and fresh. To you and Kyagulanyi, all that doesn’t provide you a reason to protest!
If you care to remember, M7 is on record for saying that a mere [ballot] paper can’t dislodge him from power!
Jes, you tell me, if that isn’t up to M7 to decide how the transition should be, what is?
Talking about a weakened and confused opposition, could you tell me what makes the opposition strong and united under one objective/goal? We currently have more than 5 opposition candidates standing against M7, and countless opposition figures competing against each other for various positions! In NUP alone, you have Mpuuga, Segana and others fighting over who should stand for this or that position! Then you have Kyagulanyi fronting his family and friends like his brother Chairman Nyanzi, his [girl] friend, his friend Nubian Lee and others!
Jes, if that isn’t a weakened, confused and disunited opposition, what is?
I insist that neither you or anybody else speaks for Dr.Sserunkuma. He, being the sole owner of the statements in the above and hundreds of articles , I prefer hearing him saying that he has always been of the opinion that its all up to Museveni and his son to decide Uganda`s future.
Just like many who pay attentionto his articles and stated positions on talk shows and elsewhere , I can prove that Dr.Sserunkuma , who has not been quiet for less than the last 16 years had never said that elections are a “circus” until recently . Why is that ?
Dr. Sserunkuma was much alive and alert when Dr.Kiiza Besigye and FDC contested in elections 4 times. As was the case then , is now -meaning that the circumstances and the political environment was similar to what is happening these days. Can Dr.Yusuf( NOT YOU!) show his readership one article when he wrote that Dr.Besigye is doing this for money , or that FDC was weak and confused or that Dr.Besigye was indulging in a circus ?
Does Dr.Yusuf Sserunkuma ( NOT YOU! ) the true political theorist from Makerere put it here on the record that the regime deploys 500+ armed thugs with 50 armoured vehicles to ambush beat up and arrest hundreds of Ugandans just because they are “weak and confused” . I need to hear him( NOT YOU!)saying that this makes sense.
No need to guess that Dr.Sserunkuma reads the news . Does he disagree with what some public figures has said about the election situation in today`s Monitor ?
I am talking about Bishop Jjumba , Katikkiro Mayiga ,Dr-Mugarra and others , none of whom is “shocked about the absence of violence”
Finally , I put it to Dr.Yusuf Sserunkuma that if he really thinks that the opposition ( NUP?) has lost its way , I find it disingenuous that he thinks it is appropriate to make their tough situation even harder by blind-folding its leadership.
I suggest that that branch is already over staffed
Jes, you can insist all you want, the fact remains, you’re entitled to your opinion. Forgive my French, however, I’m a firm believer and have maintained that opinions are ass holes, everyone has one. So, it’s not about who speaks for who. Furthermore, it doesn’t matter whether Dr. Serunkuma has “never said that elections are a “circus” until recently.” The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Yes, it’s true that Besigye stood 4 times against M7. The question remains, did M7 rig those elections? To Kyagulanyi, M7 won all the 4 elections. Kyagulanyi goes on further to blame Besigye for losing 4 times and blaming it on lack of democracy! Kyagulanyi claims that M7 rigged the 2021 election. He filed a petition in court and then withdrew it, claiming that the court was prejudice against him. He told us that he was going to present his petition/case to the people. To this date we, the people, are still waiting for Kyagulanyi to make his case.
Jes, despite the fact that the court recommended that there must be electoral reform before another election takes place, nothing has changed since the 2021 election. It is the same Byabakama electoral commission and the same court led by chief of organized criminals, Owiny Dollo!
Jes, what do expect to get in the 2026 election?
Robert Mawanda, when you talk about mercenaries, our 85-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa like and worse than Amin-‘RIP’ mercilessly used Rwandese refugee mercenaries to come to power.
Mercenaries are merchants of death, whose services are paid for in cash or in kinds such as: MEGA DEALS promises, mineral EXTRACTION and/or industrial concessions . E.g., who in his/her right state of mind, can deny that Mr. M7 conscripted the Paul Kagame, Fred Rwigyema and others of Rwandese refugees in Uganda, into the NRA rebel outfit with a PROMISE to be funded, trained, armed, etc. for the capture of Kigali (political power).
In other words, mercenary refugees have no allegiance to the citizens or flag of host country and therefore the cause of a do or die. E.g. the Massacre at Kona (corner) Kilak, which Mr. M7 gloated over to the Daily Nations reporter, was commanded by Fred Rwigyema. Simply because, failure is not an option: there was no return into the refugee camps nor anywhere if the war/struggle was lost or reversed.
Hence while in the bushes of Luweero and Greater Northern Uganda; the Kagame, Rwigyema and other were setup by our Problem of Africa between a hard place and a rock, into a ONE-WAY traffic of no return!
Mr. M7 made them (the refugees in the NRA) the ENEMY WITHIN, which the UNLA/F administration was not going to entertain should the rebellion fail. Moreover, they could not go back to Rwanda under Habyarimanna (RIP).
This is the same Catch 22 for the current security officers, whom for 40 years and counting, he has been using to commit terror, abduction, forced disappearances, murders and other atrocities; in order to keep him in perpetual power.
In other words, with indelible bloody hands (like the Shakespearian Macbeth and his wife after murdering Duncan); these officers can’t quit: Trial to quit like Gen Tinyejusa, Tumukunde and Kale Kayihura tried, they were damned. Hanging in there, they are equally damned.
The only option is: to cut the crap and shut the F up (Forgive my Greek). No wonder you would think these trio and many others, are already resting in peace (RIP) Wapi! they are alive and deep inside feel like used idiots, with sh** in their pants.
E.g., Gen Tinyejusa tried to run but could not hide. So he voluntarily had come back. Else the their tickets to the ICC is under Tibuhaburwa’s Yellow sleeves.
Wachireba wrongdoers in the Armed forces?
You are cooked and prepare to go to the same hellhole with OUR PROBLEM OF AFRICA, while the Heaven’s Gate will be wide opened for Dr. Besigye and the Lazarus of this country, who are unjustly rotting away in Tibuhaburwa’s Cooler.
Prof. Mahmood Mamdan , a man who knows Uganda and Museveni better than most people whote a book : ” SLOW POISON”
In that book , he noted ( among many other things) that ” Amin was a storm ( that come , destroyed and went away ) but Museveni is a lingering fog , a slow poison ( that is slowly but quietly killing the patient: Uganda”
Mamdan added : ” It will take a generation to find an antidote that will cure the damage that Museveni has caused ”
Dr.Besigye tried and is paying a price for it .Robert Kyagulanyi and others are trying hard to find an antidote . As we speak , millions of young Ugandans have come out to stand behind their fellow young man who is fighting against all odds to look for an antidote. Over 4 hundred of his supporters are languishing in the poisoner`s jails. Yet , elites such as Dr.Sserunkuma are here writing weekly demotion articles . They stand akimbo and tell the ones looking for that antidote ” .. the point I am making is .. what is the point… this patient is already dead . … there is only one doctor to decide … at the end of the day . Bobi Wine will be left to lazily saunter to the finishing line”
Is that the case ? Is Bobi Wine looking like he is alone and frightened ?
Is Uganda , as a patient already dead ?
You mention Chaiman Nobert Mao . Ha !
Our dear friends the Baganda have a saying : “if you`ve just consumed meat that is not stolen , why hide the bones ” ?!
Mao , bless him , has done what the Rwomushanas ( and other suspects) are too shy to do: decided to eat his stolen beef and displayed the bones.
As for the rest of us , the choice is clear : we may inspire , support , encourage and advise the generation that has exhibited the courage to find an antidote , or demotivate, and punch holes in their equipment .
Jes, the argument that the electoral process is a “trap” or “designed to divide” opposition parties is a common sentiment in authoritarian settings. The problem is not the election process itself, but the rigging and manipulation by M7, which exploits existing differences.
Elections are a critical legitimacy-building exercise for a government. The opposition participates to earn a popular mandate, which is a necessary step, yet the final result is subverted by force or manipulation. We must focus on M7’s actions to undermine the process, not the process itself.
When Kyagulanyi came to stand for the presidency, he focused his attention and efforts on Besigye/FDC rather than M7/NRM. This is evidenced in the fact that Kyagulanyi represented a new wave of mobilization that inevitably challenged the existing opposition leadership hierarchy.
Kyagulanyi’s entry into politics was seen as a new, youth-oriented approach to a decades-long struggle. While his supporters occasionally clashed with Besigye’s supporters, both leaders consistently identified M7/NRM as the primary enemy. Public statements and official alliances show they recognized the need for unity against M7/NRM. However, Kyagulanyi’s strategy was to uproot Besigye/FDC and become the leading opposition figure and NUP as the leading opposition party in parliament, thus Kyagulanyi’s passion for the bogus and violent elections.
M7 actively uses sophisticated propaganda and disinformation to fuel mistrust and division within the opposition ranks. There is even speculation from opposition insiders that M7 may have financially backed Kyagulanyi initially to weaken Besigye. The primary source of division is M7’s manipulation, not an inherent flaw in the opposition leaders’ objectives.
Despite tactical disagreements like Besigye’s belief that elections alone won’t remove Museveni vs. Kyagulanyi’s emphasis on electoral participation, both have shown public respect for each other’s contributions. They formed alliances, such as the “United Forces of Change,” to present a unified front against the regime, however, unity remains elusive and Kyagulanyi/NUP believe that they [alone] will succeed to remove M7. his family, relatives and militants from power.
I hate to say that, Kyagulanyi/NUP won’t succeed in dislodging M7 from power through the bogus and violent elections. Dislodging M7 from power requires the unity of the opposition, especially Kyagulany and Besigye.
“To this end, President Museveni’s major fear is what more could his opponents get tempted to ask of their crowds beyond votes.”
Indeed the opposition dare not ask for more from the crowds of Uganda other than the stupid rigged votes of Uganda. President M7 has challenged his opponents that the mere papers votes will never remove him from state house at Entebbe, in the Kingdom state of Buganda. Dr Warren Kizza Besigye Kifefe has tried and finally saide that after several attempts to compete with M7 democratically, he has failed to remove him from state house. The medical doctor therefore is unfortunately left to hang in prison and eat African prison food indefinately. If these money greedy opposition politicians with their mouth tell their lovely crowds something else other than Uganda paper votes, they too will go to prison and die there! Unfortunately one of the very educated and young politician David Lewis Rubongoya from Ankole tribes people has warned these dodgy politicians about such a grave prison lock up if they misbehave!
You are a confused brother . Dr.Besigye explained it more than enough why participation in an election process has its own benefits , Please do not come here and pack your lame opinions in his bag.
Besides that , you are free to not vote ; by so not doing you will have given Museveni and yourself FIVE MORE YEARS and probably gotten rid of those who are into it just for the money . Lol !!!!!!
Thanks for the analysis ,but the marginalised Baganda have got a saying that goes Enswa wekyusa envubo…
Sorry to say , but this is not an analysis; its a demotion letter and a ruling that there is no point to find a cure
Mw. Mukisa, we are also here to learn/students. For the sake of countrymen and women who are not fluent in Luganda would you please translate the proverb.