I will never forget that incident when I bounced into a boda boda rider watching a livestream of the recent NUP arrests in Mbarara.
He was talking angrily to himself, like a football commentator: “kino ekisajja ki mbega kya gavumenti, kikwasabukwasa baana babandi in the name of campaigns. Kati laba … kati laba… mscheww.”
That “Bobi Wine was a government detective, hoodwinking active young people into arrests in the name of campaigns.”
To be fair, Bobi Wine is no state detective, otherwise there would be no attempts on his life as happened in 2021. But the boda boda rider’s anger also ought to be understood, especially that many have been arrested.
And the NUP leadership, beside some performative displays, are terribly lukewarm in the fight for political prisoners. With Col. Kizza Besigye and Sheikh Obeid Lutale making one year of political incarceration, it still bothers me that we have failed to build a movement that prioritizes political prisoners over everything else – including presidential campaigns.
It is my sobering position that building a campaign around political prisoners will not only force Museveni’s government from arresting more, but will also deliver more tangible political results than a smooth presidential campaign.
While it might not end in the collapse of Yoweri Museveni, but it stands a chance of rattling his cage than anything else.
TREATED LIKE A FOOTNOTE
In an exchange with the NUP secretary general, comrade brother David Lewis Rubongoya during the Capital Gang show last weekend, Rubongoya said to me that halting elections to focus on prisoners is to “lose valuable [campaign] time.”
To this, I quickly chipped in asking him: “valuable time to where – to victory? Does Yoweri Museveni win because of his superior campaigns?!” I raged on.
Rubongoya further explained that even if Museveni arrested the entire entourage around the NUP presidential candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi, the candidate will not halt his presidential campaigns.
In their understanding, Rubongoya explained, Museveni’s intention is to make sure they stop campaigning – and they are determined to prove him wrong – even if he arrested everybody around their candidate.
Will they continue campaigning if he also arrested the candidate himself? I am not specifically sure why the NUP camp is convinced that superb and exhaustive campaigns will end in the defeat of Yoweri Museveni – and thus they have to out- campaign the man.
Neither do I understand their contention that Museveni is afraid of them smoothly campaigning all the way! I will say one more time, Museveni isn’t necessarily afraid of their campaigns – especially if their eyes are focused on the votes – but rather worried they might have bigger dreams beyond simply seeking victory at the polls.
To this end, he has to make sure it does not even cross their minds to be more ambitious than just focus on the small matter of looking for votes. Indeed, the arrests, especially in the manner in which they are conducted, have nothing to do with the campaigns themselves, but the electoral season. It is a season of political excitement and ambition.
Museveni’s worst fear is being put in a position where he has to massacre many young people on a mass scale so as to protect the presidency.
So, he has to endlessly intimidate them, by violently arresting them and throwing them in jail for extended periods. It is a fear machinery, not an electoral one. By last week, NUP reported that the number of fresh arrests – from folks around Bobi Wine’s team – had reached 150 persons.
Strangely, the arrested individuals are charged with offences supposedly committed many months ago, ranging from “illegal drilling” (no one really understands what this means) to flimsy traffic offences.
In all fairness, Museveni is terrorizing them as a way of sending them a message not to imagine anything outside the election
A PROPOSAL FOR STRATEGIC BOYCOTTS
Consider this: Now that the nominations were concluded – no more fake candidates could be nominated – folks in the opposition have a window to use their statuses as the only officially nominated candidates to stop their campaigns and demand that they continue their campaigns if all political prisoners were not tried and released or sentenced.
Consider this also: If Robert Kyagulanyi, Gen Mugisha Muntu, and Nandala Mafabi, and former FDC politician, Mubarak Munyagwa decided to halt their campaigns – and decide to abandon the election entirely – for their political prisoners, this would be a card Museveni never anticipated.
Even if he did, this would send the entire system into absolute pandemonium. Museveni does not want to win a contest where he is the only candidate. Then, they would turn up every single day to the courts of judicature waiting for their prisoners.
Or the central police station. Among others, they would pitch camp at the Electoral Commission and demand that the commission pronounced itself on these arrests. Demand to meet the police chief; demand to meet the Chief Justice Owiny-Dollo.
Hold daily press conferences, together, and speak with one voice. Without a doubt, the system might decide to put them under house arrest, or imprison them as well. In truth, imprisoning Kyagulanyi, Mugisha Muntu and Nandala Mafabi together is definitely more impactful than these statesmen wasting their time on the campaign trail.
Indeed, focusing on the prisoners with this level of urgency would turn the hunter into the hunted. The tough-talking president would be forced to make major concessions. But as I write this, I am fully aware this is just a dream.
I do not see folks in the opposition uniting in tactical boycott for our prisoners. Our opposition politicians – especially folks lucky to have a cult following – not only treat political prisoners as a footnote, but they have also turned their guns against each other.
It is in this context that that boda boda rider ought to be understood.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
Doc, reading the caption together with para two that, “kino ekisajja ki mbega kya gavumenti, kikwasabukwasa baana babandi in the name of campaigns. Kati laba … kati laba” or “Bobi Wine was a government detective, hoodwinking active young people into arrests in the name of campaigns.” I concur that Kyagulanyi is not a state agent; however, I am concerned that his approach, which seems centered on financial gain and a push for change through confrontational, rather than collaborative, electoral means, won’t and can not serve the broader public interest. That’s what has led some of us [like that Boda boda rider] to question Kyagulanyi’s motive. Despite agreeing that Kyagulanyi is not affiliated with the government’s intelligence, I perceive his actions as indicative of a leadership style that prioritizes individual financial interests. Skepticism remains regarding the efficacy of his approach within an electoral framework widely criticized for a lack of transparency and fairness. Since independence in 1962, Uganda’s political landscape has been characterized by recurrent political turbulence and an apparent consolidation of power, with the incumbent’s [M7] elections frequently drawing concern over their conduct and integrity.
Kyagulanyi’s strategy involves using the contentious electoral process as a platform to rally the public, frame the struggle in generational terms, and careless about calls for electoral reforms, even as critics argue this approach is perceived as giving false hope that an election can bring about change in a system widely believed to be manipulated by M7’s ruling regime. Kyagulanyi maintains that participating in elections serves as a critical opportunity for a “protest vote” and mass mobilization against the incumbent government! Protest vote, my ass.
Speaking on the one year [anniversary] imprisonment of Besigye and Haji Lutale, Lukwago called upon all political actors and peace loving Ugandans yearning for change to prioritize the call for freedom of all political prisoners. In my view, this should be the trigger for protesting bogus and violent elections. We must draw the line that, no freedom of political prisoners no elections. No electoral reforms [for a free and fair election], no elections. M7, his family, relatives, tribesmen and militants must go, now. We, Ugandans, must make certain that if M7 is on the ballot and political prisoners are still imprisoned and there’s no electoral reforms, no elections. Period.
Fellow Ugandans, we should not celebrate the imprisonment of the innocent Ugandans whom M7 is persecuting due to their political divergence from his. M7 has clearly made it known that he is a power maniac, and motivated by greed [corruption], nepotism, tribalism, violence and [militantisme/military] governance.
I refer to this somber one-year milestone as an ‘anniversary’ rather than an ‘incarceration’ to underscore a profound contradiction: we continue to engage in a contentious electoral process—which I hold responsible for the imprisonment of our loved ones—while they languish in prison. It can’t be business as usual.
Disunity within the opposition has become a predictable feature of Uganda’s political landscape, leading many observers to conclude that internal fragmentation is a primary factor in maintaining the status quo, rather than presenting a viable alternative. While there have been renewed attempts to forge a coalition ahead of the 2026 elections, the opposition continues to face a significant challenge in achieving genuine unity. Persistent internal splits, personality clashes, and a history of failed alliances raise questions about the seriousness and viability of a united front against the incumbent.
Hello Brother remase. Thank you for your thoughts…there is even more voter apathy due to the unfairness of the electoral process and the pre-determined winner concept. Bobi and NUp are in for the money..they said mbu we have democracy in uganda and their measure of it was standing for election four times. They will probably come to Besigye position that elections will not change government in uganda at their fourth attempt. NUP guys are untrusted reason why they have not been able to galvanise the opposition and civil society. I have not heard of few brave religious leaders or civil society condemining harrassment of NUP supporters as they often did with Besigye’s, and that my brother says alot about the trust they have for bobi and co.W e shall all one day realise we had a saviour in Besigye but we betrayed him.
Naboma, I have repeatedly said it here that Kyagulanyi is a complete fugazi. He even sang a song that, “buli omu asibba kiwanyi [everyone is a fugazi]. You’re absolutely right, Kyagulanyi blamed Besigye for standing [4 time] and lost to M7! That clearly shows that Kyagulanyi is not after M7 or interested in bringing change to Uganda, not at all. Kyagulanyi is competing with Besigye. He is only interested in being the leading opposition figure and NUP the leading opposition party in parliament for the sole purpose of making money.
So, Kyagulanyi is in it to break Besigye’s 4 times record of losing to M7! That is what Kyagulanyi calls democracy, and he is indomitable to show us that democracy works in Uganda by promising us that, the 2026 bogus and violent election is a protest vote!
Kyagulanyi’s followers [cult] are saying that we should give him a chance because Besigye also stood 4 times!
The truth is, Kyagulanyi has never done anything new and will never reinvent the wheel.
Kyagulanyi has divided the opposition than ever before! He has made it impossible for the opposition to unite and fight for the common cause, which is bringing the desperately needed change in Uganda.
NUP is not in this election to win it,otherwise what sould explain them participating in this charade when there hasn’t been any electoral reforms?
I suspect that the role of Rubongoya in NUP is to pacify any real opposition ( i.e., people power movement). No wonder when the Nakivubo floods had just occured, Rubongoya opted to assist the affected traders to pursue legal remedies ( before cadre judges!) instead of encouraging protests. The result is that Ham continues to construct. Never mind that the legal artilery that NUP has has been limited to bail applications not not any substantive course changing court actions.
All in all, NUP can pursue whatever goals they have but it shouldn’t be at the cost of footsoldiers. The likes of the Olivia Lutaayas should not pay with thier lives for top NUP officials to conduct lavish marriage ceremonies, earn billions from Parliament while doing absolutely nothing etc.
Well said Imaculate Nambi
Doc, I made my comments after reading the first four paras. But after reading the entire article, I concur “mononga” that you’re daydreaming. Don’t get me wrong, I totally understand your position or point of view, however, it’s next to impossible for Kyagulanyi to halt his campaign simply because M7 is brutally arresting detaining and torturing NUP or opposition supporters. Hell no. That can’t [and never will] ever cross Kyagulanyi’s mind. Why would he care about political pensioners? Lubongoya gave you a perfect answer that, halting elections to focus on prisoners is to “lose valuable [campaign] time.” He further reiterated that, “even if Museveni arrested the entire entourage around the NUP presidential candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi, the candidate will not halt his presidential campaigns.” That clearly explains why Kyagulanyi did halt his campaign when he was arrested in Nov 2020. The moment Kyagulanyi was released, he went right back to campaign despite the fact that M7 had killed over 200 and detained over 3,000 and many more innocent people went missing! Kyagulanyi didn’t care to halt his campaign in order to account for those killed and missing or even demand for the release of those detained! How in the world can Kyagulanyi care about Eddie Mutwe who is among the recently arrested? Kyagulanyi didn’t care to demand accountability of the killing of his driver Yasin Kawuma, yet M7 clearly knows who killed Kawuma! Say what you will or white on water or fuuwa firimbi or zinira ku mpiso [dance on the needle] Kyagulanyi will never care about political prisoners. That’s why M7 keeps on arresting, kidnapping and killing innocent people at will and/or with Absolut impunity. Muhoozi M7 even brags that he is at liberty to kidnap Mutwe and put him in his basement, teach him Lunyankole and torture him!
The killing of Kawuma didn’t trigger a protest, the Nov 2020 saga didn’t trigger a protest, the rigging of the 2021 elections didn’t trigger a protest, and Muhoozi’s bragging of kidnaping and torturing Mutwe didn’t trigger a protest! However, Kyagulanyi is leading us to believe that 2026 is a protest vote, right? Protest vote, my ass.
As my brother Lakwena say, in other words, despite the lack of significant public protests following these events and other alleged incidents, Kyagulanyi continues to frame the upcoming period as a crucial opportunity for mass mobilization against the government. In reality, Kyagulanyi is simply a coldhearted politician who only cares about making money and maintaining the status quo.
I agree with my sister Nambi that, “the role of Rubongoya in NUP is to pacify any real opposition (people power movement).”
“I do not see folks in the opposition uniting in tactical boycott for our prisoners. Our opposition politicians – especially folks lucky to have a cult following – not only treat political prisoners as a footnote, but they have also turned their guns against each other.”
Doctor said it all—the only problem is that this is a cult, and if you spat these facts in their faces, the followers would tear you up. The electoral results are known, but the opposition still pushes them because it’s their business. No one wants to oust Museveni! And unflinchingly, Rubongoya, as the Secretary General of NUP, has misled the party—they do not want change but comfort, but at the expense of the ignorant Ugandans, and that’s dangerous.
Eeeye, mujja kuzukuka mumanye nti the cult man bobi wine is just using you, naye ye akimanyi nti ye money maker. He is so cunning! You are there supporting the goon dogmatically. Temubera nga ebitasoma, how then can we tell a difference between futu sojas who “read IDs upside down” (like obote soldiers)- didnt go to school and you?
Wamma Serunkuma, thanks for the article, it portrays exactly the motive of the goon (Bobi wine).
Folks, I want to disagree with you on the following grounds:
1. Unless you are of course the regime’s CONFUSING AGENT, like Norbert Mao and the Mpuuga of this country. I suppose if you can’t martial the courage to do, and/or face off our 85-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa, his son’s goon and/or captured state machinery, the way Dr. Besigye and Hon Kyagulanyi are attempting; I would rather you disqualify yourselves and postponed/suspend your harsh judgement.
In other words, you are only sitting on the fence and BLAMING THE VICTIMS of a diabolic dictator.
2. On the one is our 85-years-old PROBLEM OF AFRICA, Gen Tibuhaburwa whom Prof. Mamdani in his Book, “The Slow Poison” has already condemned the man being worse than Amin (RIP) . On the other hand has been Dr. Besigye and FDC and now Hon Kyagulanyi and NUP: Between the two sets, who is the Greater and Lessor EVIL Ugandans are dealing with?
In other words, from a relative moral point of view: between the Champion and the Underdog, or between the Greater and Lessor Evils, which side would you CHEER?
Doc, in your recent analysis published in the Monitor, the argument was made that modern authoritarian regimes may no longer rely on overwhelmingly rigged election results (e.g., 98% majorities) but can secure control with narrower, yet still compromised, margins (e.g., 51%). This analysis seems to resonate with recurring outcomes in Uganda’s political landscape. We all know that M7 is the guaranteed winner beforehand. We also know that M7 and (NRM) consistently secure significant victories, including a substantial majority of parliamentary seats (over 400 of 527 MPs). We also clearly know that if and when there’s a dispute which may end up in court that [chief of organised criminals] Owiny Dollo, has also declare M7 the winner before hearing the merits of the matter. This is drawn from the concerns which have been raised by observers and opposition figures regarding the impartiality of the judicial process in resolving election disputes. For example, statements by Owiny Dollo prior to full hearings have been cited as evidence of perceived bias.
The aforesaid knowledge is not hidden in writing but visibly before our eyes in the fact that each and every election cycle all the above clearly shows M7 as the guaranteed known winner.
These outcomes have led many citizens to view each election cycle as having a predictable and unchangeable result.
Fellow Ugandans, we’re sandwiched between two skilled conmen, 1. M7 the designer of bogus and violent elections and 2. Kyagulanyi who fell in love for the money made from the bogus and violent elections. In other words, we’re trapped in a vicious cycle!
Lakwena You are Right ! 400% These are Confusing Agents Here to Protect The Gains!! The Senile 85 Year Old Claimed Himself That He is A Curse , Kisiraani and Enemy of Humanity Living for His Own Beliefs!He Assured Ugandans that As Commander of NRA(Notorious Robbers Army), He is God capable of Doing Evil! Like Killing Masses! Luwero re-visited!
He Looks Forward to Celebrate 40 Years on The Throne!Await Another Massacre! They Call it Operation Consolidation! My oil, My Indian Ocean!Uganda Ewooma!!