Museveni wins, why millions stayed away

By mid-afternoon on January 15, the queues had thinned.

In some places, they never formed at all. Polling stations that once pulsed with chatter and impatience sat quiet. For many Ugandans, the decision was not who to vote for, but whether to vote at all.

After three decades of the same outcome, and after a campaign marked by shutdowns, arrests, and silence online, participation felt less like power and more like a ritual. When the results came, they told two stories at once.

President Yoweri Museveni had secured another commanding victory. But nearly half the electorate had chosen absence. In that gap, between victory and withdrawal, lies the real meaning of Uganda’s 2026 election.

By nightfall, the outcome followed a pattern the country knows well. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni had won again, decisively. Yet beneath the headline numbers lay a more complicated story about power, participation, and a democracy that has stretched across four turbulent decades.

A Result That Looks Familiar—And One That Doesn’t

According to the Electoral Commission’s final announcement, Museveni secured 7,946,772 votes—71.65 per cent of the total. His closest challenger, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, trailed far behind with 2,741,238 votes, or 24.72 per cent.

Nathan Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) finished a distant third with just under two per cent. Turnout stood at about 52.5 per cent, meaning nearly half of registered voters did not cast a ballot.

On the surface, it looked like a return to form. Museveni’s share rebounded sharply from 2021, when he won with just under 59 per cent, his weakest performance since 2006. This time, he came close to matching the dominance of his early years.

But the deeper story of the 2026 election is not just about who won. It is about who stayed away, who lost ground, and what that says about the state of Ugandan politics. About 21,649,067 people were registered to vote in the presidential and parliamentary polls.

Approximately 11,366,201 voters cast their ballots. This represents a turnout of roughly 52.5 per cent of registered voters.

FORTY YEARS, ONE CONSTANT

To understand 2026, it helps to return to where it all began. In 1996, Uganda held its first direct presidential election under the new 1995 Constitution. Museveni, then seen as a reformist leader who had brought relative stability after years of chaos, won with 74 percent of the vote.

His challenger, Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere, represented an older opposition rooted in traditional party politics. Voter turnout was high, over 72 percent, reflecting a country newly invested in the promise of electoral choice.

Five years later, in 2001, the contest shifted. Kizza Besigye, Museveni’s former ally, emerged as a serious challenger, tapping into discontent within the ruling establishment.

Museveni still won comfortably, but his share dipped, and Uganda entered an era of permanent opposition, one marked by court challenges, street protests, and deepening political polarisation.

The removal of presidential term limits in 2005 changed everything. The 2006 election, Museveni’s first after that amendment, was his most competitive at the time. He won just under 60 per cent, while Besigye surged past 37 per cent.

Urban voters and young people were increasingly restless. Politics became more confrontational, and security more visible. Museveni recovered ground in 2011 and 2016, even as public anger over inflation, corruption, and governance grew.

By then, Besigye had become the face of resistance and the limits of that resistance. Repeated arrests, house detentions, and failed legal challenges wore down both the opposition and its supporters. Then came 2021.

THE YOUTHQUAKE THAT DIDN’T LAST

Bobi Wine’s rise ahead of the 2021 election felt different. A pop star turned politician, he mobilised young voters, urban dwellers, and first-time participants in ways Uganda had not seen before.

Museveni still won, but with just 58.64 per cent, while Bobi Wine captured nearly 35 per cent, an unprecedented showing for a newcomer. That election seemed to signal a generational shift.

But five years later, the numbers tell a more sobering story. Bobi Wine’s vote share fell by ten points. His raw vote total dropped by nearly a million. The youth-driven surge of 2021 did not repeat itself. Why? Part of the answer lies in turnout.

In 2021, despite COVID restrictions, turnout was higher than in 2026. This time, nearly one in two registered voters stayed home. Some opposition supporters describe the abstention as a protest, a quiet refusal to legitimise a process they no longer trust.

Others point to fear, exhaustion, or simple disengagement after years of high-stakes politics that rarely deliver change. The internet shutdown in the days around the vote also mattered.

Social media had been central to Bobi Wine’s rise, not just for campaigning but for mobilisation and morale. With that space cut off, the opposition’s ability to energise supporters and monitor the vote was weakened. For younger voters in particular, politics without connectivity felt distant and constrained.

POWER CONSOLIDATED, PARTICIPATION THINNED

Museveni’s rebound in 2026 can be read in two ways. Supporters see it as renewed confidence in an experienced leader amid economic uncertainty and regional instability.

Critics argue it reflects a playing field tilted by state power, security deployments, and restrictions on opposition activity. Both interpretations can coexist. What is clear is that Museveni’s dominance no longer rests on broad participation.

Winning over 70 per cent of the vote matters less when barely half the electorate turns out. The mandate is wide, but the base is thinner. This shrinking participation may be the election’s most consequential signal.

Democracies are not weakened only by who wins, but by who stops believing their vote matters. Uganda’s long electoral history, seven presidential elections since 1996, shows remarkable continuity at the top, but growing fragility below.

WHAT THIS ELECTION LEAVES BEHIND

The 2026 election did not end Uganda’s political story. It clarified it. Museveni remains firmly in control, having outlasted rivals from Ssemogerere to Besigye to Bobi Wine. The opposition continues to reinvent itself, but struggles to turn moments of momentum into sustained power.

Voters, especially the young, are increasingly caught between anger and apathy. After 30 years of competitive presidential voting, the question facing Uganda is no longer whether elections will be held; they will, but whether they can still inspire belief. The ballots have been counted.

The winner is known. What remains unresolved is whether the distance between power and the people is narrowing or quietly growing wider. That answer will not be found in percentages alone. It will emerge in who shows up next time, and who decides not to.