Inside Museveni’s money-driven opposition capture

The future of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), once Uganda’s dominant opposition party, appears increasingly uncertain as internal divisions deepen and more of its members of parliament (MPs) either defect or signal intentions to align with the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

These developments raise pressing questions about whether the party can maintain its status as a viable opposition force ahead of the 2026 general elections.

MUSEVENI’S STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT WITH ACHOLI MPs

A fortnight ago, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni met with MPs from the Acholi sub-region at State House Entebbe. While the official purpose was regional development, the political implications of the meeting were significant.

Many of the MPs in attendance were elected on the FDC ticket. Led by Okin P.P. Ojara (Chua West, Kitgum district), the MPs pledged to set aside political differences to work with the president for the benefit of their constituents.

“We may belong to different political parties, but our focus is on fighting poverty and driving socio-economic transformation in Acholi,” Ojara stated while reading a prepared speech.

The meeting coincided with growing discontent within FDC ranks and comes as more than half of the party’s 30 MPs have either explicitly declared or subtly signaled plans to leave the party once the law permits changes in political affiliation.

Notably, Anthony Akol (Kilak North, Amuru district) has publicly expressed willingness to join the NRM. Others rumored to follow include Lucy Akello (Woman MP, Amuru) and Ongiertho Emmanuel Jor (Jonam, Pakwach district). The presence of Ojara and Betty Aol Ochan, a known supporter of the Katonga faction of the FDC, surprised many.

“We are 10 leaders from different political shades, but we came together to think, brainstorm and prioritize the pride and prosperity of our people. We asked ourselves tough questions: Why are we in opposition? Should we remain in opposition while our people continue to suffer?” Ojara said during the meeting.

Betty Aol, a former leader of the opposition in parliament, echoed the sentiment: “We must unite to find lasting solutions for poverty alleviation.”

STRATEGIC SHIFTS AND MUSEVENI’S GROWING INFLUENCE

President Museveni’s meeting with the Acholi MPs reflects a broader strategy: engaging formerly hostile regions such as Acholi and Lango, where the NRM was historically unpopular. Today, the ruling party boasts more MPs from these regions than the combined opposition.

An unnamed MP noted the tactical shift in Museveni’s approach: “You must credit Museveni for his ingenuity. He realised that using force against Acholi and Lango was not going to yield results… Now being NRM or NRM-allied is actually an advantage.”

The MP further claimed that NRM’s support, both financial and logistical, makes defection appealing—particularly for MPs worried about re-election.

THE KATONGA FACTION AND IMMINENT SPLINTERING 

FDC’s viability is further threatened by internal divisions stemming from the 2023 power struggle between two factions: one led by Kampala lord mayor Erias Lukwago (Katonga Road faction), and the other based at the party’s official headquarters in Najjanankumbi.

The Katonga faction is reportedly in the process of forming a new party—the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF)—which, if approved by the Electoral Commission, could pull away at least 15 sitting MPs.

Some of the MPs aligned with Katonga include:

• Oguzu Lee Denis (Maracha County)
• Oneka Lit Denis Amere (Kitgum Municipality)
• Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda (Kira Municipality)
• Mwijukye Francis (Buhweju County)
• Kamara Nicholas Thadeus (Kabale Municipality)
• Batuwa Timothy Lusala (Jinja South West), among others
• The list also includes Betty Aol, despite her attendance at the State House meeting, illustrating the complexity of political realignments within the opposition.

FDC’s NAJJANANKUMBI CORE AND THE PARTY PROSPECTS

Only a minority of MPs remain firmly aligned with the Najjanankumbi faction under the current leadership.

These include:

• Okot Moses Junior (Kioga County)
• Nandala-Mafabi Nathan James (Budadiri West)
• Nsibambi Yusuf (Mawokota South)
• Apolot Stella Isodo (Ngora District Woman MP)
• Ekanya Geoffrey (Tororo North)

In response to the defections and internal rifts, Mulindwa Walid Lubega, FDC’s deputy secretary for Publicity, acknowledged the challenge but remained optimistic.

“It’s unfortunate that some of our MPs are schmoozing with the NRM. We’re going to do whatever is necessary to win them back. People are going to NRM because they’re desperate to win back their seats. They know they’re assured of support there,” Mulindwa said. money-driven

He also accused the NRM of systematically recruiting opposition MPs, with General Salim Saleh allegedly playing a key role in these efforts.

“NRM’s power is in the gun, and other things like vote rigging and money. But you should know MPs don’t look at NRM as the alternative. They just want a cooperation with it so that they are not harmed politically,” he added.

Despite these challenges, Mulindwa believes FDC will recover.

“We can never be wiped out. The party has already identified candidates and we are going to perform well. We are going to surprise the naysayers. Just like we shocked the nation in 2021 when we got 32 seats wait and see in 2026.”

He also pointed out that internal divisions exist within other opposition parties, especially once flag bearers for 2026 are selected.

LOOKING AHEAD

The FDC faces its most serious existential test to date. Its erosion of parliamentary presence, compounded by the Katonga–Najjanankumbi split, and growing enticements from the NRM, has weakened its national profile.

Museveni’s direct engagement with opposition strongholds like Acholi and the creation of a seemingly safer political environment for defectors show a strategic shift in the ruling party’s consolidation tactics.

While FDC leaders such as Mulindwa remain defiant and optimistic, the current indicators suggest a party in retreat, struggling to navigate ideological rifts, personal political survival, and systemic co-optation by a more resourceful ruling party.

The question remains not only whether FDC can survive—but whether it can still present itself as a credible and unified alternative to the NRM ahead of the 2026 general elections.