Why Muhoozi Kainerugaba will be a weaker opponent

All factors remaining constant, President Museveni’s son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is seated in a good spot to replace his father.

After four decades, he finds himself in this prime position after his father emasculated – if not obliterated – all other potential candidates. If contenders have not been thoroughly humiliated, they are in jail or exile.

If they are in the country, they live in a state of fear and cannot build a thorough political profile. But like folks in the opposition, Gen. Muhoozi also finds himself in a dark waiting room – a perpetual waiting room – where the same man who has been his benefactor, keeps all others waiting without end.

Now at 53, he has become a little impatient, and is exercising presidential powers – as a way of demonstrating his presence. From AAA’s overthrow, JOO’s ascension to Speaker of Parliament, and now Erias Lukwago’s abduction, one can feel Muhoozi’s pain of having to wait in the woods for a presidency he feels close to.

For a long time, I have proposed to Muhoozi to hasten the process by overthrowing his father. (Museveni referring to himself as a bicycle cotter-pin – which only understands force – was not meant for opposition groups only, but whoever wanted to take power from him).

If Muhoozi overthrew his father, he will surely not be the first in history. He does not have to kill his old man Oedipus style. He only has to put him under a pretentious, luxurious “house arrest” at their country home in Rwakitura.

Here, the old man can attend to his cows, and also have the chance to meet his grandchildren away from cameras. In a weaker position, Muhoozi could insist that his father makes him Vice President so as to be officially the “president-in-waiting.”

In this case, he can even exercise an immense amount of power and his father could become a ceremonial head. But remaining simply as CDF is living dangerously. If the old man suddenly left this world, he might successfully wrestle his way to the top, but this is surely a dangerous gamble.

NOT LIKE FATHER

But once Muhoozi Kainerugabe becomes President, I will implore all opposition groups to throw themselves a party. While this will look like a Rwakitura Kingdom coming to life, it would be the beginning of the end of the kingdom.

Muhoozi would not only have overthrown an entrenched man, he would also have brought to life the transition question. I will say once more, the era of presidents lasting four decades is gone.

Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba is not like the father. He is a weaker man than his paterfamilias – and still struggles to craft his own identity. It is difficult to understand through analogy.

But since Muhoozi derives all his powers from his father, this comparison is all the more urgent. One realises that to be president of this still neo- colonised enclave, one has to be close friends with western imperialism – except of course if you are ready for revolution.

Misled by Andrew Mwenda’s academic positions, Muhoozi hit out at the western world on Russia-Ukraine. Then later, he went against the American ambassador, threatening to deport him on a matter involving Bobi Wine. He has had a thing with the German ambassador.

While this would be a good posture for an academic, it is not good for a politician seeking to lead Uganda – with the old man having spent his entire political life serving western interests.

Indeed, western capital appears content with Museveni and entirely unsure about his son. Muhoozi has tried to cultivate a friendship with Israel, but with the genocide in Gaza, and a brewing Israel-American fallout over Iran, many western capitals are likely to become slower in their affairs with Israel.

AN OBSESSIVE EXHIBITIONISM

I have argued before that Muhoozi’s weakness – just as would be his strength – stems in the era in which he lives – one of Wi-Fi and affordable Chinese smartphones. Truth is, Muhoozi enjoys the limelight. He is like an influencer or a movie star!

All his actions and online thoughts are a public spectacle – from his fascination with big-bummed women to his penchant for exhibiting power. This explains his endless online jabs at Bobi Wine, and endlessly threatening to hang Dr Kizza Besigye.

While his father has committed more wrongs – as Mahmood Mamdani has stated in his recent book, Slow Poison – Yoweri Museveni worked so hard to eliminate all evidence. If any evidence ever came out, he would “rub the beard in the dust” denying his association with that specific crime.

In the worst- case scenario, he would admit to the crime while throwing those who worked for him under the bus. Not his son. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, on his part, sees breaking the law as a privilege to be savoured, a chance to exhibit power and accomplishment.

In doing this, he not only publishes but also confirms his crimes. He was the man who showed us a tortured Eddie Mutwe in his basement, the stomped and battered Barbie Kyagulanyi, and the same man has sent us images of a distressed former mayor of Kampala City, Hon. Erias Lukwago.

You don’t have to hire an investigator for evidence of his crimes. You just follow his online footprint and actionable points. The man even appears online to justify his behaviour. My point is this: In Muhoozi becoming president, there is more to benefit than be afraid of.

In boxing, this is called going down the weights – as opposition gets to challenge a boxer who, despite his very big muscles, is tactless, and almost unprepared. Only reliant on his big muscles.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.