Sometimes, victory is in conceding defeat.
This does not mean sitting back, but rather not seeking a different strategy to return to the same fight, but simply seeking a different fight. Maybe we are fighting the wrong fight! The truth is the opposition (whatever this means) went into the 2026 general election thoroughly emasculated.
Weaker than ever before. But this was not because of their own making, but the chains around them. They have operated under an autocratic system which does not allow them to exist and organise as useful political actors.
The irony is that the opposition ignores all these red signs and decide to walk into an election. Museveni’s adversaries underestimate the limitations he imposes on and around them throughout the entire five-year cycle, and then turn around and over- estimate their talents and mobilizational capacity.
However talented, one cannot win a marathon without thorough training and preparation. The truth is Museveni won. Not the elections. He has never looked for votes. But managed to control and dictate the nature of the electoral season imposed on him by the neoliberal modernity.
Yes, the modern life-president has to organise an election. He must. (He also has to have a parliament, a supposed free press, etc.). Otherwise, he cannot belong to the neoliberal world of borrowing and credit.
But in organising this election – which is meant to please the global moneylenders – he has to make sure he controls the tempo, the energy, all contingency to the point his opponents don’t drag him into uncontrollable madness. using overwhelming force on his opponents will have the moneylenders turn against him.
They’ll come chanting Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and will be done with him. While these moneylenders don’t really care about human rights, they’ll not miss the occasion to pretend to care. To Museveni’s credit – especially as far as this democratic circus is concerned – he did commendably well in “finishing off the opposition,” and silencing critical voices.
This is not only through directly throwing them behind bars (Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, Obeid Lutale, Dr Sarah Bireete, Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro, Eddie Mutwe and many supporters of the NUP), but also indirectly, covertly sabotaging them.
With especially money in his arsenal, Museveni has used his access to the national treasury to his utmost advantage. Either through the annual Shs5b given to all political parties through the Interparty organisation for Dialogue, or the Shs500m to commissioners and Leader of Opposition, and the humongous bribes and perks to legislators, Museveni has cleared his path towards life presidency.
COUNTING OUR LOSSES The point I’m making is this: it is high time we conceded defeat. Surely, if all previous electoral gambles have been an effort towards a transition from Museveni to someone else, it is my contention that a transition will have to be acquired through a different approach.
Not through force or competition. But a negotiated exit. Let me explain this a little more. What has become real is that Museveni has proven difficult to beat through electoral competition.
We have tried this seven times. (I was slow, but stopped voting in 2016). He will not be defeated through street protests either as he has taken lesson from other places (Libya, Sudan, Senegal, Egypt, Tunisia), and covered his tracks. Dr Kizza Besigye tried street protests several times.
It is unlikely a coup is being organised soon. Nor are the warlords in the United States coming to pluck him out of state house in the dead of the night. He has made sure he is their most committed caretaker.
Dear reader, please don’t read this as capitulation. It is not at all. But rather counting my losses early and focusing on more important fights ahead. Look, the entire country – including people calling themselves the “standby generator” – is resigned to their condition and simply looking forward to Museveni’s death. Death appears as the only adversary this man cannot escape.
I do not wish Museveni sudden death. Not because I love him, but because he is, sadly, ironically, the only centre of power left to hold the country together. Too bad for Uganda, Museveni has bred and fattened so many hungry hyenas and hounds around.
While all these are feasting on the country, only one man can call them to order when they overstretch their fangs: Museveni. Sadly, Museveni has not nurtured any other master these hounds can listen to.
Yet, he has become so exhausted, old and sickly. Even when he has so immensely privileged his son, he seems not to trust him enough. (Otherwise, why not give him the presidency?) With his sudden death, all of these meat-eating vultures, without a master to stop them, will be out of the woods angrily and violently going at each other.
This will not only hurt these hounds, but they’ll definitely go down with the entire country. We’ll be the next country in flames after Sudan. Thus, it is imperative for Museveni to create another centre of power, another hound-master while he still can.
A NEGOTIATED EXIT
In this concession speech, I’m seeking to create a movement towards a negotiated exit. Painfully, we’ll have to give Museveni his flowers for successfully defeating all opposition forces – blocking all windows of protest, but also keeping a tight embrace with his international backers.
But then, we have to impress it upon him that he is not immortal. He is old, and old age has no cure. We will also have to impress it upon his friends and kindred (plus all his hounds, and hyenas) that the sudden disappearance of their master risks them losing all their accumulation.
Against this, Museveni’s friends, kindred (and hounds alike) will have to join efforts offering Museveni a negotiated exit. If we cannot fight him, perhaps maybe talk to him. To be continued.
yusufkajura@gmail.com
The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.
– NO to the tribalistic system, tribal leaders standing down,
– Just ONE National/Common Leader then,
– UNITY will block Rwandese Museveni!
Then Ugandans will be free to form the kind of governance they want!
So, why ensure 45 years of Rwandese Museveni, knowing only a member of his family will replace him & Uganda will remain their family business?
Lybians woke up & UNITED immediately after election & stopped Kadhafi!
What are Ugandans waiting for knowing only them, but in UNITY as ONE PEOPLE, will have the pwoer to stop the zone formed by their tribal lands to belong to the Rwandese family?
Funny P. Kagame doesn’t allow his brother Museveni back home even for a few days, but he owns Uganda & all Ugandans do is remain powerless tribally divided by him, WHY?
Once Ugandans UNITE, will Rwandese Museveni remain in State House?
From which tribal land will he fight to come back from & which tribes will join him?
Will Rwandese Museveni go with tax money?
Why are Ugandans still tribally divided ruled & ensure, protect, look up to Rwandese Museveni & for what?
Akot, despite your calls for unity, the 2026 election has left the opposition more fractured and toothless than ever before. Kyagulanyi/NUP has not only lost their grip on the Buganda region—nearly splitting the vote with the NRM—but has seen its parliamentary presence gutted from 57 seats down to just 41-43. While leaders like Muwanga Kivumbi are abandoned [by NUP leadership/Lubongoya/Ssenyonyi] in detention on terrorism charges, Kyagulanyi remains in hiding, seemingly more interested in the financial benefits of being ‘the leading opposition figure’ than in actual liberation. By declaring a ‘protest vote’ only to chase legislative paychecks, he has traded the struggle for a business model. He criticized Besigye for years yet now finds himself confused and paralyzed as the very ‘democracy’ he promised to reveal has crushed his party’s influence.
The results of 2026 are a clear indictment of Kyagulanyi’s leadership. After promising that a massive turnout would bypass the regime’s rigging, the NUP has instead presided over a national decline, losing all momentum in Buganda and failing to secure even 50 parliamentary seats. It is hypocrisy at its finest: Kyagulanyi urges the international community to intervene while simultaneously validating a ‘rigged’ system by letting his party take up seats in a parliament they call illegitimate. Between the detention of his deputy, Muwanga Kivumbi, and the loss of major elective positions to the NRM, it’s clear the struggle has been sacrificed for political profit. The ‘protest vote’ was just a slogan to keep the money flowing while the movement/struggle has been irreparably destroyed.
“Evolution” in scientific and spiritual terms should have raised our humanity to a higher level above the Animal kingdom, yet as Yusuf implies, we have some powerful people whose degree of appetite and morality associates them with the metaphor of “hungry hyenas” or “meat-eating vultures”! This should concern every Ugandan, every “vulture” and “hyena”, especially now that the Christ Himself is preparing to return to the world.
Wow !
This is great .
A great Norbert Mao imitation ; an even better timing .
This reads like surrender speech from yet another disingenuous grifter – a prisoner of war. That , or is it a coming out of the closet disclosure `
Not long ago , the writer shared a moving story about his visit and his encounter with political prisoners , including Dr. Kiiza Besigye . It remains unknown if he advised those prisoners to accept their defeat and negotiate Museveni`s exit .
Mao was here before. His negotiations we know. The result become his personal entry , not his capturer`s exit.
This is when curiosity breeds questions: who is going to impress the Old One that shooting dead young unarmed girls inside of a house in Butambala , lying and celebrating that massacre is not a win ?
It was anticipated that The Devil is bound to bounce back Chest thumping that He had defeated Terrorists who turn out to be Indigenous Ugandans Impoverished in their Own Country! Iwe Isherunkuuma Yusuf with Rwandese Ancestry, You are here to Confuse us about Defeat by Your landsmen! If at all you are a Muslim then You must be aware that There is No Day that will not Come!even Yawm’l Kiyama! That Devil with his Son feasting on Makende for Breakfst are bound to face Their Fate! 50.000.000 Ugandans against a bunch of Goons claiming to protect their Loot!..Watch This Space!!..If they are Strong Why Loot Somebody’s House stealing Nickers and Old Socks!! Very Primitive!!
Your argument overlooks a critical dimension: Uganda remains, in many respects, a colonial construct—an amalgamation of diverse social and cultural groupings. Some of these communities are highly organized yet historically suppressed, while others have been loosely structured and subject to manipulation. Inevitably, the eventual passing of Gen. Museveni, without a carefully managed transition, may precipitate a period of instability. Yet such disruption could also catalyze the emergence of a new order—an irreversible rebirth of a nation forged from the decline of neocolonial structures and the rise of mutually aligned social and cultural constituencies. This transformation may even extend to a reconstitution of the state itself, potentially under a new name. Paradoxically, Museveni’s unsustainable grip on power may ultimately serve as the very condition that enables Uganda’s reimagining and renewal.
Even the best dancers know when to get off the stage. When a father doesn’t prepare a will for his family, then you know the outcome. Museveni is NOT taking us with him in his grave..NO…Uganda is a country not his house. We will resist at all dimension. You meant an “apologetic and farewell” speech to Ugandans! By the way you are missing Muhoozi’s picture. You need to listened to what is saying behind closed doors. I quote, “If his men in uniform(soldiers in barracks) had not commanded stuffing votes for NRM candidate(s), he would have got 29% or even less than what Hon. Mbabazi got in 2016″.
As Uganda is Museveni’s house for Yusuf, it is on fire that you can’t see or extinguish. People can celebrate in bars silently aware of the mess that can’t be undone. Uganda trends of Etesot coming to the rescue of the tiger/leopard is happening right now. My simple advice to Teso soldiers, brothers, sisters and civilians don’t be fooled..my mom would say,”acowa” meaning common sense. Learn from the past. The ONLY tribe in Uganda Muhoozi fear most when it comes to speaking the language of guns are Atesot and Kumam. You touched his skin during insurgence in the region. Keep that integrity, your head up! Please, don’t betrayal your brothers, sisters, uncles, aunts and grandparents who still demands justice. When you accept unfair commands to torture or kill anyone, you resurrects souls of those murdered innocently between 1980-1994, and as early 2002. Listen to Hon. Maria Matembe; women of honor, integrity and wisdom so as to awaken your thinking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whk3_5KA69k
Doc, with all due respect, you’re daydreaming! Are you out of your mind? Negotiate with who? M7? And negotiate what? His exit? Since when M7 has ever negotiated anything about power? M7 is a power maniac, expecting a negotiated transition with M7 ignores decades of history and the reality of the 2026 election. M7 has consistently maintained power through force, famously asserting his authority as almost divine. Just on January 23, 2026, Gen. Muhoozi reaffirmed this stance by boasting of killing 30 NUP ‘terrorists’ and arresting over 2,000 others. With over 700 of lives lost in this election cycle and thousands reportedly in detention torture chambers, these are not the actions of M7 looking to negotiate an exit. The gun, not the ballot [or negotiating M7’s exit/transition], remains the primary tool of governance.
Doc, the proposal for a negotiated transition appears disconnected from Uganda’s current political landscape. Historically, M7 has equated his hold on power with divine right, using state security apparatus to suppress dissent. Besides the 10 innocent people who were murdered at Muwanga Kivumbi’s house, on January 23, Gen. Muhoozi publicly celebrated the killing of 30 opposition members and the detention of 2,000 more. Given the estimates of over 700 election-related deaths and the widespread use of ‘torture chambers’ for political detainees, there is no evidence of a willingness to engage in dialogue. M7 shows no sign of yielding to anything other than the same force he used to acquire power.
The idea of a negotiated exit is a fantasy when M7 is actively decapitating the opposition leadership. Since the January 15 polls, M7 has turned to familiar tactics of mass arrests and forced disappearances. Muwanga Kivumbi is the latest victim, sent to torture dungeons until February 3 on charges are politically motivated. He joins the veteran Dr. Besigye, who is reportedly seriously ill in prison. With Lina Zedriga and Jolly Tukamushaba also missing for over a week, it is clear that M7’s only ‘negotiation’ is through the use of force and the suppression of the NUP Platform’s executive. Transition is impossible when the path to dialogue is blocked by the gun dungeon bars.
Correction: “Muwanga Kivumbi is the latest victim, sent to torture dungeons until February 3 on charges which are politically motivated.” “Transition is impossible when the path to dialogue is blocked by the gun and dungeon bars.”
Don’t lose hope. Have faith! Muhoozi doesn’t know that the gods or God can use his own gun or bullet against him. Pride,open corruption, oppression are dangerous things. Even Sevos powerful witches in Entebbe or Jinja are cleaning up their houses as they already know the fate of the big man. We just need to keep praying to the souls of your ancestors to be set free and not be used. The more and earlier we insist on prayers, before June you could see the outcome. Using Sevos own weapons is the way to go. Disarm his spiritual bases. The time is very ripe.Even Sevos feels his spirit at unrest. He is troubled, so is the son!
In other words Jamo, all dictators and their sons are from the same abominable mother. E.g., Saddam Hussein and his two sons were hanged side by side on the same day.
Gaddafi was shot between the eyes with his own Golden handgun, by a 19-year old teenager; and died without knowing where his wife and daughters had fled.
Former Dumb ass Syrian President Assad and family backsides are getting frozen in the Russian Winter!
Our own Dictator, Life President, DSO VC, CBE (Conqueror of the Brits Empire, Salongo, etc. Gen Amin, could not imagine ending up in the Arabian Wilderness wherein he checked out; either into Jana (Heaven) or Jahanum (Hell).
In other words, when the day.
In other words, for 10 times having hardened his heart to let go the Children of Israel (leave power), even the Biblical Pharaoh Ramses III suffered the same fate.
As days follow nights when Gen Tibuhaburwa and his son will eventually come face to face with a similar fateful day or night; there will be no Ugandans to sympathize with them, nor other members of the that family.
Wahurura?
Doc, let’s be brutally honest: neither dialogue nor these bogus and violent, state-managed elections will ever bring change to Uganda. We must move beyond the cycle where M7 organizes a charade and the opposition walks into it, only to be crushed. You rightly noted the opposition was ’emasculated’ going into 2026, but the real issue is a lack of revolutionary urgency.
In his January 24, 2026, video message from hiding, Kyagulanyi detailed the militant raids on his home and called for international attention. But calling on the world to ‘keep an eye on Uganda’ is the same rhetoric we’ve heard for years. If this isn’t ‘business as usual,’ then the NUP must take a definitive stand. It is a direct contradiction to claim the election was rigged—a ‘state-sponsored assault,’ as activists call it—while Joel Ssenyonyi and other NUP members who were declared winners are ironing their suits and prepare to take their seats in a parliament controlled by the very man they say stole the vote. Genuine ‘People Power’ requires rejecting the status quo entirely, not just complaining about it while collecting a government paycheck. Kyagulanyi wants to eat his cake and have it at the same time! M7 does not negotiate; he dominates. While the NUP leadership remains in hiding or in ‘torture dungeons’ —the party’s overall strategy remains stuck in a loop.
Kyagulanyi’s message on January 24, while powerful in its description of the raids on his house, lacked a clear directive for total defiance [protest vote]. If we are to believe his own words that Uganda is ‘under siege,’ then why is the party allowing its successful candidates to legitimize the regime by joining parliament? Ssenyonyi and others cannot claim the process was a sham while simultaneously validating it by taking office. Until the opposition stops underestimating M7’s ruthlessness and starts prioritizing liberation over participation, nothing will change. The time for ‘business as usual’ ended the moment the militant, Gen. Muhoozi, began boasting of killing 30 of our own on January 23.
The NUP won 43 seats in the new parliament (down from 57 in 2021), won’t and can’t bring the change we urgently need and deserve in any way, shape or form. That simply legitimize M7 to continue his autocracy!
It is imperative for Gen. Museveni and the NRM to clarify whether they view the political opposition as an enemy or as a legitimate proponent of alternative governance. To compel this clarification, elected opposition leaders may need to consider withdrawing from all government activities until a foundation of mutual respect is restored. This is a necessary sacrifice opposition members must be prepared to make.
Furthermore, the nation must confront a fundamental question: does it genuinely desire a functional multi-party democracy, and how can such a system remain relevant in a political climate as hostile as the one fostered by certain zealous adherents to the violence doctrine?
Apollo, Kyagulanyi/NUP cannot have it both ways. They framed the 2026 election as a ‘protest vote’—fully aware of the regime’s history of electoral manipulation—yet they are quick to claim and celebrate the 46 parliamentary seats they were ‘permitted’ to win. This creates a dangerous paradox: while innocent Ugandans face detention, torture, and death under a leadership that labels them ‘terrorists,’ the NUP leadership continues to validate the system by occupying elective offices. By failing to call for a total boycott and further prioritize the release of political prisoners over legislative perks, Kyagulanyi is more invested in the financial benefits of the status quo than the actual liberation of the nation.
I have long maintained that Kyagulanyi is a total fugazi, and his current actions prove it beyond a doubt. While he performs the role of a liberator, his true motivation is raw greed. He is more than happy to trade the blood of innocent Ugandans—those killed and disappeared in the 2026 election—for the financial perks of 46 parliamentary seats. A real leader doesn’t feast at the table of a regime that calls his followers ‘terrorists’ while they rot in torture chambers. For Bobi Wine, the ‘struggle’ is clearly just a business model.
Completely agree Remase. We shall take NUP seriously if they boycot parliament and local council positions they were allowed to win ….I am waiting to see what roads Balimwezo will build in that Lukwagi did not Kampala…what he calls a new kampala since the new Uganda has failed. Point is, we need to agree on a better strategy than elections and occupying offices where these guys are paid huge perks while those they use to ascend to power languish in jail(we still have people detained in 2021 post-election sweep) yet the senyonyi’s are moving on to claim fat salaries and wear expensive suits to go to a parliamet where they decide nothing, absolutely nothing!!
Naboma, this is the truth: Kyagulanyi’s ‘revolution’ stops exactly where the payroll begins. If he were serious about a boycott, he would have ordered his MPs and mayors to vacate their offices the moment the 2026 results were rigged. Instead, the NUP is tripping over themselves to contest every remaining local council and mayoral seat. They call the system ‘illegitimate’ on Twitter but find it perfectly ‘legitimate’ when it’s time to collect a government cheque. The ‘protest’ was just a marketing slogan to keep the youth distracted while the NUP leadership secured their next five years of comfort.
It is time to address the hypocrisy at the heart of the NUP. You can’t call an election a ‘protest’ one day and then happily collect your parliamentary paychecks the next. While hundreds are killed and thousands languish in torture chambers, labeled ‘hooligans’ by Gen. Muhoozi to justify the carnage, the opposition leadership remains comfortably seated in a parliament they claim is illegitimate. Kyagulanyi’s refusal to demand his party’s withdrawal from all elective offices until political prisoners are freed is a betrayal of those who sacrificed their lives. It’s becoming clear: the struggle has been traded for a seat at the high table.
Kyagulanyi is the ultimate fugazi. He cries for the martyrs of 2026 on camera, but his eyes are clearly on the bank accounts of those 46 parliamentary seats. How can you claim to lead a revolution while your party occupies offices granted by the same man you call a dictator? He has traded the lives of innocent Ugandans for political survival and greed. The ‘People Power’ he preaches is just a mask for his own profit.
Bobi is vibrant, young in politics and governance, commands the majority of volatile Uganda citizens. Let’s give him time and room to grow into his leadership unlike Muhoozi who was handed ranks/command post at expense of more qualified army officials. Using all approaches comes into play. The soldiers too are waiting for leadership/organization to join Kyagulanyi. Don’t be surprised to wake up one day and hear massive battalions gone, switching sides. Even children whose parents are serving/beneficiaries in this government are tired. They feel enslaved. Uganda is seated on a time Bomb. Bobi will need well trained soldiers to command his base. Many Ugandans are ready and determined to go fight/hide in the bush alongside a leader they trust than be tortured by Muhoozi or Sevos, or suffocated with debts and lack what to do. I guarantee you if Kyagulanyi decided to organize for war, in each region of Uganda(North, East, West, North, South, and Central) he would command a minimum of between 10,000 to 20,000. Even some NRM are ready to join. Military leadership and organization is what is lacking in Bobi’s camp. He might have to look outside the box. I believe there are some retired general wishing that Bobi could contact them for advice. They see Bobi’s base as virgin, fertile and volatile landscape.
Jamo, let’s stop making excuses for Kyagulanyi by calling him ‘young’ in politics. He is a calculated, grown-up political actor who knows exactly what he’s doing. He isn’t a victim of the system; he’s a beneficiary of it. He sells the youth a ‘protest vote’ fantasy—promising Kalonde, kakuume, kabbanje—only to abandon those votes the moment the polls close. Why? Because he can’t bite the hand that feeds him. Kyagulanyi has turned the ‘struggle’ into a lucrative business model where maintaining the status quo is more profitable than actual liberation. He keeps the youth hooked on the hope of a savior while he cashes in on his ‘leading opposition’ brand. This isn’t immaturity; it’s a cold, deliberate betrayal.
In other words, I beg to differ, Jamo. Kyagulanyi isn’t ‘learning’ politics; he has mastered the art of political deception. He plays a dangerous game, telling the youth he knows they are ready to revolt (tebagala kumanya), yet he refuses to lead them because a revolution would end his profitable career as a ‘professional’ opposition figure. He promised to protect the 2026 vote, yet he stood by as it vanished, proving that his rhetoric is just bait for his cult-like following. He doesn’t want to topple the regime—he wants to be the most expensive piece on its chessboard. It’s a calculated strategy to keep Ugandans oppressed while he gets rich off their desperation.
I grew up in war zone, watched, listened and saw the strategies of both sides; Rebels and army. In Teso, where my relative who was Vice-President Dr. Samson Kisekka(RIP) in-law refused to surrender, he would explain their strategies that even the army couldn’t beat them at. Split in groups of 5,10,20,50; areas of coverage, informers, scouts, coordinators of attacks, they were like invisible ghosts etc. I remember soldiers who were from western Uganda questioning why Teso didn’t overthrow the government, as they were too good fighters. Really do you think Bobi would like to see his fate like Besigye…. I believe there are good fighters….soldiers who can’t wait to face off with Muhoozi. Bobi will have to surrender and let them command, Bobi can mobilize but just like some of us, can’t fight. If he comes out to organize riots that’s exactly what Muhoozi wants to justify his actions. I feel there some soldiers out there that would die fighting against Muhoozi to prove that they’re far better than Muhoozi. Bobi’s base has more morale to deliver the country, which is lacking in UPDF; serving oppressive and corrupt regime!
Jamo, it’s not about encouraging violence, but rather observing the different approaches to opposing the current autocratic regime. While M7’s rise to power involved armed struggle, the question today is how to bring about change through non-violent means. There’s a notable difference in response to the political climate: Some individuals are choosing to step away from the system in protest, like Jimmy Akena (UPC) resigning his parliamentary seat. Others, like Kyagulanyi and the NUP, are participating in the same system they claim is flawed and responsible for the killing of innocent people and human rights abuse.
M7’s 4 decades rule with the justification of addressing election rigging. Yet the pattern of rigging elections and violence continues! Kyagulanyi/ NUP’s decision to take their seats in parliament and other elective positions is a strategic move to continue enjoying making money and the comfort zone out of the miseries, injustice and endless painful suffering of Ugandans.
To paraphrase the great Kwame Ture, “In order for concession to work, your opponent must have a conscience. Museveni and the NRM have none”.