Uganda’s long-awaited first oil revenues may not materialise in 2026 as widely expected but could instead arrive in 2027, the executive director of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), Ernest Rubondo, has cautioned.
Speaking at the opening of the 6th Annual National Content Conference in Kampala, Rubondo said that while commercial production is scheduled to begin mid-next year, Ugandans should not expect money to flow in the moment oil begins flowing from the Kingfisher and Tilenga wells in the Albertine Graben.
Rubondo explained that actual revenues will only come in after the crude has been processed, transported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), delivered to the international market and paid for.
“I’m sure there are a lot of people who talk about first oil, but they have not drilled down to what first oil is. And I think most people would like a date. Which day is the first oil?…I will not say which day is first oil, but each one of you will know which of the days your first oil is,” he said.
Rubondo emphasised that crude from both projects will first go through central processing facilities before being delivered to the official delivery point – the stage at which government can declare it ready for buyers.
“And at that delivery point, the government of Uganda starts saying, I have delivered the oil to where the people who are supposed to buy it. So for some people, first oil is when oil arrives at that delivery point,” he said.
He added that once the oil enters the 1,443-km pipeline, it will take between two and three months to reach the port of Tanga, where it is loaded onto ships and the financial transaction is completed.
“Now you know when it gets to Tanga, it is supposed to be put on a ship, and that’s where the ownership changes and the money changes hands. There are also some people who say, for me, first oil is when it’s on a ship, and I’ve earned my money. So first oil has those four specific phases,” Rubondo noted.
He urged Ugandans to understand why, from a banking and financing perspective, many analysts expect first oil earnings to arrive months after production begins.
Government insists first oil is in 2026
State minister for Energy, Opolot Okasai, however, maintained that for the government, “first oil” will be realised the moment crude begins to flow from the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields next year. He encouraged Ugandans to position themselves for opportunities during the production phase.
“As we enter the operations phase, opportunities for Ugandan participation are immense. With petroleum projects spanning 20-25 years and annual operating expenditures exceeding $8 billion, these funds will support long-term contracts in maintenance, manufacturing, equipment supply, health and safety, ICT, chemicals, machining, and specialised engineering services, among others,” he said.
Okasai described the moment as a historic transition from infrastructure development to production.
“After nearly two decades of exploration, appraisal, and meticulous planning, we are now entering a period that will define the legacy of our petroleum resource. Developments in the Albertine Graben have matured considerably,” he said.
He confirmed earlier reports that Uganda’s oil resources are now estimated at 6.65 billion barrels, of which 1.65 billion barrels are economically recoverable, and projected production will reach 230,000 barrels per day.
“But beyond these numbers lies a deeper question. How do we ensure that this resource becomes a catalyst for national prosperity, not just today, but for generations to come?” Okasai asked.
He urged Ugandans to acquire the technical skills that will dominate the next 25 years of oil operations – from pipeline inspection and digital engineering to geoscience, finance, logistics, and occupational health and safety.
Okasai revealed that cabinet has approved a new National Oil Policy 2025, one of whose strategic priorities is increasing petroleum reserves. The policy also proposes extending the PAU’s mandate to regulate downstream and upstream operations, including fuel pump stations, a role previously held by the ministry of Energy.
“Now that the sector has become greatly de-risked, aggressive promotion of investment in exploration is going to be a key priority for the ministry. In addition, the government is cognizant of financial constraints that the national players face in securing and implementing contracts in the sector,” he said.
He added that a bill establishing the National Content Fund is before cabinet, aimed at providing “relatively affordable and more patient capital for Ugandan contractors.”
But I applied For piping inspection training opportunity under Sinopec but we haven’t been called because I want to tap on the EACOP opportunities how can you help me
Thanks for the oil and gas updates.
It seems Museveni does not understand the global politics of hydrocarbon, when he always brags about “My oil”. It might not happen under his watch.
Do u recruit plumbers there?