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Significant variance in president, MP voter turnout in Kazo, Kiruhura

Voter counting of the January 14 election

Voter counting of the January 14 election

An interesting voting pattern variance has emerged in western districts of Kazo, Kiruhura and Isingiro where President Yoweri Museveni scored 100 per cent at most polling stations.

Even though voting of the president and MPs happened at the same time on the same day at the same polling stations, the voter turn up for the president and MPs differs significantly. President Museveni scored 50,805 more votes than what was polled for Woman MP in the districts of Kazo, Kiruhura and Isingiro in western Uganda.

This means that 50,805 voted for the president but did not take part in voting for their district Woman MPs in these districts, even though voting happened on the same day, at the same polling stations.

In Kiruhura for example, the president’s home district, Museveni polled 23,130 more votes than those cast for the Woman MP. According to results released by EC, Museveni scored 75,483, representing 98.76 of votes cast, in the district that had a voter turnout of 93. 71 per cent.  

The records show that 76,743 out of 81,891 registered voters, in Kiruhura turned up to vote for the president. But on the same day, in the same district and from the same number of polling stations, only 52,353 voters participated in the election of the Woman MP across the district, a difference of 29 per cent of the voters. This figure includes 464 invalid votes.  

This figure is derived from examination of Woman MP declaration forms in these districts and tally sheets of presidential election results released by the Electoral Commission last week.   

A significant difference in Kiruhura’s voter turnout is in Nyabushozi constituency which was won by NRM’s Wilson Kajwengye.

Museveni scored 57,580 votes in Nyabushozi yet the constituency voter turnout for MP was just 36,753 voters. Kajwengye says “there is no law that forces one to vote for any candidate. He adds; “in fact, most people came, voted and left. A lot of importance is attached to the party president. And that is what people preferred. I cannot cry, I cannot scream for anything.”     

Kajwengye says that any person who thinks that the difference in voter turnout means there was rigging, would be engaging in “speculation and stretching imagination.”

Kiruhura district returning officer, Deborah Asiimwe says she is not aware of the variance in voter turnout, but promised to study it. The trend is similar in Kazo, a district which was carved out of Kiruhura two years ago.

Here, the president scored 73,043 votes representing 98.04 per cent of the total votes cast. Kazo has 92,843 registered voters. But only 53,557 registered voters participated in the election of the Kazo Woman MP. 

This means Museveni scored 19,486 more votes than the number of people who participated in the election of the Woman MP. While the voter turnout for the president was 81.41, it was only 57.68, for the Woman MP, a 23.73 per cent difference.    

Kazo district returning officer Gustavus Kakeire advised URN to contact the Electoral Commission for clarity on the matter. But EC spokesperson Paul Bukenya says this question requires time to research and verify figures. 

This pattern is further reflected in Isingiro district where the president scored 8,189 votes more than the total voter turnout for the district Woman MP. There is a difference of 9.74 per cent (22,710 voters) between voter turnout for the president and district Woman MP. The president polled 188,609 votes in Isingiro (93.37 per cent).   

The focus on these districts was informed by the fact that its where Museveni polled 100 per cent at tens of polling stations. But there are districts such as Kisoro and Nakaseke with polling stations where Museveni polled 100 per cent, without any significant difference in voter turnout for the president and Woman MP.     

URN could not trace election observers who went to Kazo and Kiruhura on election day. But several NRM leaders in the two districts last year said that no election observer has ever written a report pinning them on rigging. Anne Nkutu, an election observer with Uganda Women Situation Room who went to Isingiro says she could not talk about the figures. 

“Most of the observations we made were in the early hours of the morning when voting was just beginning. We did not go back in the evening. It’s hard to me for me to make a fair comment on figures,” she says. Nkutu says in the morning hours when they visited polling stations, “people were not so many.” 

Bernard Sabiiti, a data and public policy analyst says that such a variance between voter turnout for the president and Woman MP is indicative that there was “vote tampering for the president and none for the MP position. You can’t tell me that in all these examples, some voters were simply voting for the president alone and skipping voting for MP.”  

Peter Bogere, an official from the Uganda Project Implementation and Management Centre (UPIMAC), an organization that conducts voter education thinks that a big voter turnout difference means there was rigging.

“It’s difficult and inconceivable for someone to tell me that voters came, voted for the president and went. If there is any difference, it should not be more than two per cent.”   

The National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi has petitioned the Supreme court, seeking for the nullification of the presidential election that Museveni won with 58 per cent. But Sabiiti argues that such “probable evidence of rigging” will not be entertained in court. “It is still important that this analysis of EC’s own data is done to show the world how nakedly rigged this election may have been,” he says.   

There is also a 5.9 per cent difference between turnout for the president and Woman MP in Ntungamo where Museveni got 161,655 votes in Ntungamo, which is equal to 85 per cent of the total votes cast.


+11 #1 Tabula 2021-02-06 11:12
Please, call a spade a spade and not a big spoon.
The extra 50805 votes for the president are the extra papers that were stuffed in the ballot boxes.

Its not that you had to vote for the presidential candidates first and then later Que for the Member of Parliament, which would have explained why some people did not vote for MP.
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+6 #2 Apollo Ekelot 2021-02-06 11:14
This is Museveni and NRM for you! Then he says this is the cleanest election in Uganda ever!

Theft of this kind happens where there is either conspiracy or where the vote protection systems are vulnerable.

I imagine the agents of the other candidate were either thrown out or they were just not there. In Isingiro, Kiruhura, Kazo, and even Karamoja among other places, this was likely done so blatantly.

Stuff ballots or change numbers as you wish since the other candidates had no agents. Even if they had, they were intimidated, bribed, or just chose to conspire.

Ever wondered why Museveni is so 'loved' in Karamoja; getting nearly 100% of the votes despite the misery there? It’s not genuine love it is love manufactured in the EC ballot boxes! Any election where Museveni is a candidate can never be fair!
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+7 #3 Mandela 2021-02-06 11:41
That was a bug in the rigging algorithm,lol.

Rigging master did not think about that.
. Mr. Byabakama may never get another term for such an obvious error.
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-28 #4 Wainanchi 2021-02-06 11:59
Observer. Kindly leave your "scientific" researches and better promote ideas how to employ those who need jobs and how to promote Uganda economy.

Leave elections ,predictions and daydreaming.Thank you!
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+7 #5 Eric L 2021-02-06 12:14
Satan now officially resides in this region in which he has recruited agents with christian sir names like Arinaitwe, Byarugaba, Byakatonda, Bakashabaruhanga etc.
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-22 #6 Mama Mia 2021-02-06 14:53
Agents of doom, Nsimbe and Batte. You will soon be thrown onto kabangalis and dumped in Kitalya.

I am watching you!!!
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+4 #7 Falconer Tawabulwa 2021-02-06 23:12
Gadhaffi copycat
Falconer is horning
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+11 #8 Lysol 2021-02-07 05:30
Quoting Mama Mia:
Agents of doom, Nsimbe and Batte. You will soon be thrown onto kabangalis and dumped in Kitalya.

I am watching you!!!

There is always someone else who is watching the watcher. Always remember that, Mama Mia.
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+6 #9 Apollo 2021-02-07 09:50
Quoting Kajwengye:
any person who thinks that the difference in voter turnout means there was rigging, would be engaging in “speculation and stretching imagination.”.

,I'm reminded of the story of little boys with sugar crystals around the mouth, denying they did not steal the sugar.
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+4 #10 Elias Emokori 2021-02-08 11:19
When election results are cooked from somewhere likely Statehouse, given to media houses to relay and passed over to the Chairman EC to announce what would you expect.

Then there is this thing called the substantiality test in our courts of law. Did we even have an election??

Some polling results are merely added to the already prepared ones. It was a fraud a sham that just wasted Ugandan's time, resources and blood.

Even if it were me as a Presidential candidate that the system works for and I can get some ballot "Tickers" in my favour and somehow those ballots can find themselves in the Nationally Tally results to be announced by anyone, I will beat any contender to the presidency. Let's not waste time with elections in the current configuration.
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