As the race for NRM Secretary General gets hotter, Amama Mbabazi is increasingly suffering a bundle of nerves, with Maj. Gen. Kahinda Otafiire emerging as his biggest threat.
But the Vice President, Gilbert Bukenya, who appeared to have put his foot off the pedal in recent times, has resumed quiet mobilisation and was last week reported in Bundibugyo and Kabarole districts. Nevertheless, party insiders have told us that Mbabazi spends more time devising strategies to defeat Otafiire, the minister of Trade, whom he believes poses more problems to him than Bukenya.
Otafiire’s recent emergence as a big factor in the race is an indication that his mobilisation efforts are paying off.
It has also confounded critics, who believed that because of his controversial nature that at times makes him appear unserious; he did not stand any chance.
We have been told that Otafiire’s support within the party now cuts across entire sub-regions but the core of it lies in delegates from northern Uganda and West Nile. That is why, NRM sources told us, Otafiire even transported and accommodated some delegates from northern Uganda at his expansive home in Mbuya, to cement his support.
He seems to have mastered the art of appealing to people’s sentiments and this explains why among the candidates, he is the one who finally cooled down the angry delegates at Kololo last month, who were protesting against the way they were treated.
A shrewd Otafiire reportedly told them: “What is important is the party. Let us serve NRM diligently. If we find that in the kitchen there are people who are not good cooks, we need to kick them out and replace them with good ones.”
However, his main undoing is hailing from the same region as Mbabazi. Several party voices, including that of a minister, Mwesigwa Rukutana, have openly suggested that it would be wrong for NRM to have its two top-most leaders; chairman and secretary general, hailing from the same region. With President Museveni’s position as chairman secure, a number of NRM supporters will seek to hand the post of secretary general to another region.
This point of view obviously favours Bukenya, who is from Buganda.
Nevertheless, Otafiire and Mbabazi are such formidable candidates whose respective support cuts across regions.
Personal attributes may thus overpower regional political considerations. In that case, Otafiire’s ability to mix with ordinary party supporters with ease is a plus.
“The problem with Mbabazi is that he does not want to lower himself and appeal to the common people,” said one of his strategists responsible for canvassing votes among the youth.
Earlier this month, Mbabazi told journalists that he is the “only contender” in the race while the other candidates are just “aspiring.” He was reacting to calls for his resignation following the poor organisation of the recent party conference at Namboole, which resulted in the secretary general being heckled.  
“My record as secretary general is there for everyone to see,” he told the journalists.
During his reign, Mbabazi has come under severe attack from members of the NRM who accuse him of being inaccessible, aloof and of killing the party through inaction.
His squeaky clean image was also dented in 2008 by the Temangalo saga in which he was accused of using his political influence to get the National Social Security Fund to buy his land at what some say were unfavourable terms.
However, Mbabazi remains popular among a sizeable section of the party, especially NRM MPs. And being the incumbent, he can still hold his own against any candidate. The fact that he remains a close confidant of President Museveni also gives him an advantage over his rivals.
Yet it is also clear that his overall support across some structures of the party has declined and the evidence was overwhelming for those who attended the Namboole conference last month.
Many delegates were not happy that it took them days to get accreditation. Some upcountry delegates who braved the night at Kololo seeking to register were bitter that the party did not get them something to eat.
While Mbabazi apologised for these organisational glitches, damage had already been done and many delegates left Namboole swearing not to give him their vote.
It is such flaws in Mbabazi’s leadership that Otafiire has exploited to shore up support among delegates.

OTAFIIRE SPEAKS

Otafiire told The Observer in an interview recently that he is aware his campaign has gained momentum, adding that his contest with Mbabazi ought not to divide the party because NRM is bigger than both of them.
“No one should get sleepless nights because we are all aspiring to serve the people in NRM. It is just a service and should not be a do or die matter,” Otafiire said. Without mentioning names, he said those “dying to be secretary general at any cost” should be rejected and only committed individuals who are willing to sacrifice their time should occupy such an office.
Otafiire laughed off allegations that he had used a wrong platform to campaign, wondering where the right platform is.
“Should I have campaigned among UPC supporters?” he asked.
But Mbabazi is not sitting back. According to our sources, he has privately told his strategists to focus on Otafiire’s weaknesses, such as his controversial past.
They shall tell delegates that a person of Otafiire’s character has no business running the show at Plot 10, Kyadondo Road, where the party has its headquarters.
Indeed Otafiire has over the years had his fair brush with controversy.
In 1997, he was accused of stealing copper rivets worth Shs 8bn from an Asian businessman, Harsh Kumar but a parliamentary probe committee cleared him of any wrongdoing. In 2001, he was accused in a UN report of having participated together with other senior UPDF officers in the plunder of DR Congo natural resources. He was later exonerated by Justice David Porter’s probe committee.
As for Bukenya, he seemed to have slowed down his campaign, especially after the nerve-wracking PAC probe. However, by last week he was back into the fray, rallying his forces.
Recent media reports indicate that the speakers and their deputies from different municipalities, divisions and town councils in the country have backed the VP’s bid to become the party’s secretary general.
Other candidates; Theodore Sekikuubo, the Lwemiyaga MP, and Prof. Elijah Mushemeza, are so far said not to be big threats.
But for Mbabazi, Otafiire and Bukenya, the race has just begun.
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