Ruling party seeks to overturn 92% deficit while opposition desperately hangs onto its stronghold

Three top opposition leaders in Lango have crossed to the NRM in the last couple of months. The fourth pledged to “support” the ruling party during a political rally addressed by President Museveni and was even photographed wearing a yellow cap. Nevertheless, he denies switching allegiances.  
This political activity is taking place in the heart of opposition to the NRM government. The Uganda Peoples Congress has been the party of choice here since the early 1960s. Not only is it the birthplace of the party’s icon, the late former president Apollo Milton Obote, Lango also remains the UPC’s only major enclave in Uganda today. In fact, President Museveni could only manage 8% in this region during the 2006 elections, and his party could only get two out of 18 seats available.
But the ruling party has been digging in quietly since the elections, and now seems to be gaining some ground.
After a meeting at his country home in Rwakitura recently, President Museveni unveiled Rebecca Amuge Otengo (Lira Woman MP) and Franco Ojur (Lira LCV Chairman) as new NRM converts. The two were previously FDC-leaning independents.
A month earlier, David Ebong (Maruzi MP) had also crossed to the NRM. Another would-be convert, John Ogwang (Kole MP), denies having crossed, although he told President Museveni during a rally that he was now supporting his government, following the creation of Kole district, and even allowed to be decorated with NRM paraphernalia.
Yet all this didn’t come as a surprise. The President had told a ruling party leaders’ meeting earlier that they should be ready to accommodate defectors, especially from Lango. The Observer followed that with a story titled Museveni Lango defectors named of February 14-17, 2010 in which we revealed that Rebecca Amuge and Franco Ojur were some of the politicians defecting to NRM.
However, questions remain as to whether the key opposition leaders lured to the NRM will carry along the Lango voters.
Felix Okot Ogong, the Dokolo County MP, who is perhaps the most prominent NRM politician from the region, is not convinced.
Ogong, one of the only two survivors of an electoral massacre that targeted NRM candidates in Lango in the 2006 elections, told The Observer that what the Langi want from government is to answer their “problems” and not picking of “politicians who are looking for their own survival.”
Ogong believes that to improve on its miserable 8% vote count in 2006, NRM needs to focus on the voters’ demands rather than woo a few politicians who he claims are seeking self-aggrandizement.
“Some politicians are looking at their own survival by joining NRM, but the grassroots people are looking at who will answer their problems—segregation, unemployment, poverty, diseases, bad roads, education for their children and welfare,” he said.
“So, any leader who appeals to the people will take the day. The people of Lango are looking at who will take them to the Promised Land,” Ogong continued. “And it depends on whoever handles their issues properly. If it’s Museveni, he will carry the day.”

LANGO FOR SALE?

As Ogong alleges, it is believed that the defecting politicians have been promised financial and political rewards. So, is Lango up for sale?
Cecilia Ogwal, the Dokolo Woman MP, and Erute North MP, Charles Angiro Gutomoi pointed out that individuals might defect but the people have not yet spoken.
“We need to wait for the 2011 elections and see whether Lango has sold out. You can’t merge Lango with a few individuals who have crossed to NRM. Let’s wait for 2011 elections and see,” Ogwal said.
The veteran politician blamed the recent developments on two things: the failure by politicians to sacrifice and build strong parties, and the new multiparty dispensation which created choice.
Ogwal added that some of the political parties are financially crippled and therefore unable to meet the basic financial needs of their members. This, she explained, gives NRM the advantage to use public resources it has controlled for over 20 years and graze in the once no-go opposition territories.
“We have not developed cadres who believe in principles rather than material gain. Politicians we have now believe in self uplifting rather than self sacrifice,” said Ogwal, who, in 1994, rejected the offer to become vice president in a Movement government.
“Ministerial positions promised by NRM will only benefit you as an individual rather than the community. One would ask, ‘why did Ogwal turn down the VP post?’ It would have elevated the status of the North, but I looked for the better good of the people,” she said.
“In other words, one has to sacrifice material gains for the greater good of society.”
Gutomoi added that Museveni is moving into Lango and northern Uganda in general after realising that he has lost ground in the hitherto assured central region. He was referring to the current bad blood between the government and Buganda Kingdom, which analysts say might cost NRM significantly in this populous region with over four million votes.
However, Gutomoi warned that the president should beware of the Langi saying, “you can play with my stomach but not my head.”
Time will tell that the Langi cannot be swayed, Gutomoi said. “The people of Lango need roads, good health services—not NRM bribing or buying politicians to cross.”
Yet it would appear Museveni’s government hasn’t ignored the above issues either. Among other projects, the upgrading of the 125km Soroti-Dokolo-Lira road is nearing completion. On top of reducing travel time and transport costs, the road also gives Lango businessmen and farmers easier access to South Sudan markets.
In addition, the government is working on the 68km Lira-Kamudini stretch.
Though imperfect, government initiatives such as Universal Primary Education and the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) have also taken root in the sub-region. The Vice President, Prof. Gilbert Bukenya’s upland rice scheme has flourished in Lira; the Mukwano Group recently unveiled a Shs 2 billion maize factory and an oil refinery plant in Lira. Plans are underway for the ministry of Works to implement the presidential pledge to establish a Shs 2 billion ferry service linking landing sites on Lake Kyoga. Besides, the LRA war that must have damaged NRM’s electoral fortunes in 2006 has since ended, leaving the IDP camps dismantled and the region peaceful.
So, alongside these achievements, NRM is now targeting the local opposition elite, who they hope will help spread the Movement gospel down to the grassroots.

NRM FORTUNES

In 1996, Museveni got 17% against Paul Ssemogerere’s 76% in Lango. In 2001, Museveni upped his share to 20%, compared to Kizza Besigye’s 76%. But in 2006, Museveni suffered a serious setback here, scoring a paltry 8% against his main challenger, Besigye’s 70%.
Is this likely to change? Even Okot Ogong is keeping his fingers crossed. “I have failed to understand the trend; I can’t judge that either NRM or the opposition will take the day. It is still complex,” Ogong said.
To turn around 8% is what Ogong describes as “complex”, although he is under no illusions that the NRM will better that performance come 2011.
Yet no matter how complex, the NRM looks determined to change the embarrassing voting pattern that gave the ruling party only two lawmakers (Okot Ogong and Beatrice Lagada, the Oyam Woman MP) in the last elections. The other seats were claimed by independents (9) and UPC (6). FDC trailed with one seat.
In the newly created Alebtong district, NRM has vowed to support new catch Amuge for the slot of woman MP. In Moroto County, Denis Hamson Obua, the NRM supporting Youth MP, is likely to lock horns with the incumbent, Benson Obua Ogwal of UPC.
In Dokolo County, incumbent Okot Ogong is likely to retain the seat for NRM, while in Erute South, Sam Engola (NRM Lira chairman) is seeking to unseat UPC’s John Odit.
For the Lira Woman slot, Amuge’s tactical withdrawal has created space for NRM’s Joan Pacoto. Pacoto will face-off with UPC’s Margaret Ateng Otim.
In Lira municipality, NRM is considering fronting Joe Arwata, the RDC of Katakwi, against UPC heavyweight Jimmy Akena, Obote’s son.
In Oyam South, where the incumbent Ishaa Otto Amiza is embroiled in a bitter contest with a fellow opposition politician, Betty Amongi (Apac Woman), the NRM is likely to front Moses Anyii, a career banker in Lira, to take advantage of the confusion and perhaps grab the seat.
In Otuke, Daniel Omara Atubo, the Minister of Lands, is expected to defend his seat using the NRM ticket. He previously stood as an independent candidate.
In Maruzi, Ebong will carry NRM’s banner. For Oyam Woman, Lagada has vowed to keep her seat for NRM. In Kole, where the ageing Ogwang is expected not to seek re-election, the NRM is likely to front Okello Orech. He will most likely face UPC’s Ruth Acan.
In Apac district, NRM will front Jane Okori, a teacher and vice chairperson of NRM workers’ league, for Woman MP. But UPC’s Anne Alum Ogwal also wants the seat.
Apart from Kwania, where the incumbent, Prof. Willy Anokbonggo of UPC remains extremely popular, and Dokolo where Ogwal is believed to have what it takes to retain the woman seat, as well as Erute North, where Gutomoi is said to be formidable, other seats in the sub-region seem to be up for grabs. But this excludes Oyam North, where senior lawmaker, Ben Wacha who stood as an independent, remains strong. In Amolatar district, FDC strongwoman, Rhoda Acen is also billed to retain her seat. The same applies to Kioga MP, Ojok B’Leo.
Asked for a comment, Prof. Ogenga Latigo, the Leader of Opposition, told The Observer that NRM’s rush for a presence in Lango sub-region doesn’t frighten the opposition. In fact, he described the move as “suicide”.
“We are not worried. Let NRM celebrate. But what is important is the battlefield. Let’s wait for what the voters will say in 2011.”
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