A Swedish scholar and retired diplomat has asked the international community to closely watch Uganda’s electoral process to prevent any possibility of violence breaking up during and after next year’s general elections.

Rasmus Rasmusson, a visiting scholar at Harvard University, was part of a delegation from the Swedish ruling alliance parties that visited Uganda in December 2009 to assess the political temperature in the country.

In a three-page confidential report he sent to the European Union member countries, Rasmusson calls for urgent action to save Uganda.

Rasmusson says that organisations such as the Development Assistance Committee of the European Parliament, the Association of Western European Parliamentarians for Africa, the International Institute for Democracy and the Electoral Assistance should, together with the EU and the US, promote dialogue and stability “to help prevent a repeat, or worse, of the last Kenyan election.”

NOT DOING ENOUGH

Rasmusson accuses the EU and US of taking a back seat and doing little to stop human rights violations in Uganda.
“The ruling party - the National Resistance Party (NRM) is said to have trained a youth militia of 12,000 to harass and intimidate, as part of the general militarization of the nation,” he says in his confidential document.

“The EU and the US seem sadly not to have reacted to the worsening governance and human rights situation, except for a strong rebuttal of a proposal to criminalise homosexuality.”

While the killing of civilians by the army in Guinea, Rasmusson observes, resulted in strong international reaction, “the killing of an estimated 72 citizens in Kampala” during a violent demonstration in September 2009 was left unattended. However, official figures put the dead at less than 30 people.

“The perceived usefulness of the Museveni government as a provider of regional security and the reluctance to further withdraw development assistance may partly explain these lacunae,” he writes.

December 22, 2009

Uganda — can parties develop and a peaceful election be promoted?
This summary describes the situation as perceived by a delegation of the Christian Democrats and Centre Party of Sweden on a week-long mission in Uganda. The purpose was to dialogue with the Inter-Party Cooperation of the opposition, IPC, and to seek avenues to promote a dialogue between the opposition and the government at grass-roots level, with a focus on the role of women and youth.

2011 elections

The 2011 election is already subject to gross manipulation, according to the opposition and to independent assessments. The ruling party has failed to secure confidence in the Electoral Commission by reappointing a biased one. A million “ghost” voters are reported.

The ruling party - the National Resistance Movement party (NRM) is said to have trained a youth militia of 12,000 to harass and intimidate, as part of the general militarisation of the nation.

The EU and the US seem sadly not to have reacted to the worsening governance and human rights situation, except for a strong rebuttal of a proposal to criminalise homosexuality. While the military slaughter in Guinea resulted in strong international reaction, the killing of an estimated 72 citizens in Kampala during a violent demonstration in September 2009 was left unattended.

The perceived usefulness of the Museveni government as a provider of regional security and the reluctance to further withdraw development assistance may partly explain these lacunae.
Inter-Party Cooperation, the alliance - hopes for the nation?

The Inter-Party Cooperation has shown its strength by signing a second protocol with detailed provisions on joint candidates for the election and a joint platform. The four parties of the IPC:  FDC, UPC. CP and JEEMA may shortly be joined by the Social Democrats. A sixth possible party, the DP, has first to try to sort itself out in a February 2010 National Delegates Conference.

At long last, the USD2 million Deepening Democracy Programme (DDP) fund, sponsored inter alia by Sweden, can start disbursing support to three political parties; the largest opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and the new dissenters from NRM called PPP.

This would permit a useful reinforcement of the Swedish PAO support hitherto to the Ugandan opposition, and contribute to a slightly more level playing field between the government and the opposition. The NRM, having the whole government and military machinery at its disposal, has not yet bothered to fulfill conditions for DDP support.

There are at least three (potential) positive trends that could prevent or lessen violence before, during and after elections. Uganda might otherwise best be described as a keg of gunpowder, where there is a great challenge to remove ignition.

The first one is a proposal emanating from the IPC that methods should be sought that provide security and an honourable exit to a loser of elections. The second one is the formation of a Youth Forum of all parties, intent on peaceful argumentation at all district levels and with a capacity for joint election surveillance.

The third one is an acknowledgement or an ambition of the opposition to seek a federal approach, giving regions a greater say, competence and ability to provide for themselves. Present Uganda not only suffers from militarisation and lack of governance, but also excessive centralisation.
Desirable actions?

Finally, here follows a “wish-list” of measures by different key actors:
The EU and the US might clearly express the determination to hold those responsible for manipulation of the election, with subsequent violence, fully responsible. Such a message needs to be sent frequently, and with determination.

All political parties should be given capacity for local advocacy and monitoring, so they become part of a machinery for promoting reasonably fair elections with full participation of the electorate.

Maximum attention to the situation should be given by bodies such as the development assistance committee of the European Parliament, the Association of Western European Parliamentarians for Africa (AWEPA), the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), its South African counterpart EISA (vide the enclosed Appeal).

Together with the EU and the US they can contribute to dialogue and stability, and maximum electoral surveillance. All this is to help prevent a repeat, or worse, of the last Kenyan election.

In all this, still ill-equipped opposition parties, NGOs and the press need both advice and particularly some hardware to play their roles in advancing democracy and governance. How about mobile phones cum digital cameras for 500 young people of the Youth Forum?

Finally, even if all major parties seem to have acknowledged the Dutch NIMD proposal for a central dialogue, the Swedish PAO programme for promotion of local dialogues between women and young people needs an urgent start.

Rasmus Rasmusson is Deputy Chairperson, Christian Democratic International Centre, KIC
(KIC is in partnership in Uganda with the Centre Party International Foundation (CIS) and the Swedish International Liberal Centre.

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